Leeham News and Analysis
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Embraer’s big bet on its largest airplane yet
Introduction
Embraer is days away from the roll-out of its biggest airplane project yet and one that has the potential to make its biggest inroads yet into the global defense market: the KC-390.
Rendering of KC390 tanking two Embraer AMX fighters. Source: Embraer
The airplane, with a fuselage cross-section the size of the Boeing 767, challenges the Lockheed Martin C-130, a venerable aircraft that has been updated throughout the decades since it first entered service in 1956. Despite this modernization, Embraer believes the time has come for a modern design and a multi-mission capability that far surpasses that of the C-130, with higher productivity of a jet aircraft vs a four-engine turbo-prop.
KC-390 3D view with main data. Source: Leeham Co
Summary
- Embraer sees a market for 728 KC-390s in 77 countries, excluding the US, Russia, China and Europe.
- The KC-390 is half the price of the Airbus A400M and about the size of the Lockheed Martin C-130.
- Launched with paid development and an order for 28 aircraft from Brazil to fulfill the country’s unique requirements.
- Typical mission capabilities will be: Cargo 7 pallets, Displacement of 80 soldiers, air dropping of 86 paratroopers, transporting 1 Black Hawk helicopter or one LAV25 or 3 Humvees, Rescue missions, Air tanking of 2 aircraft or helicopters.
- The KC-390 flies at M0.8 and will therefore finish missions in two thirds the time of the C-130 Hercules (which flies as M0.5). This will also result in more missions flown per day i.e. more airlift capacity.
New and Derivative Airplanes: Some good, some not: Part 2
Part 2 of two parts.
With multiples and multiples of billions of dollars at stake to develop new airplanes, and the billions of dollars of cost overruns at risk, it’s understandable the Airbus and Boeing are shifting to looking at derivatives and incremental improvements now for the lower-risk and ability to “harvest” technology across family lines.
This is hardly new. Airframers have been doing this since the Douglas DC-1 prototype begot the DC-2, which led to the DC-3. The Douglas DC-4 was the basis for the DC-6 and DC-7, for which there were A, B and C versions. Lockheed revamped the L-049 Constellation through several major upgrades (the -649, 749, 1049 and 1649, with several sub-sub-types in between). Convair created the CV-240 and revised it twice with the CV-340 and 440. The Martin 202 became the 303 (dumped after design issues with the 202) and the 404.
The trend continued into the jet age. Douglas created the DC-8-10/20/30/40/50 on the same basic airframe and really went to town with the DC-8 Super 60 Series. The DC-9-10 became the -20/30/40/50, the Super 80 (in four variants) and the basis for the MD-90 and MD-95. Boeing’s ground-breaking 707-120 became the 138/227/320B/C, the 707-020 (more commonly known as the 720), the C-135/KC-135 and a number of other military variants. The fuselage was the basis of the 727, 737 and 757. And so on. (Text continues below the photo.)
Later this month, we will unveil a new, updated Leeham News and Comment with a combination of paid and free content. Watch this space for more information.
European manufacturers of the early jet age followed the same pattern. There were four commercial versions intended for the deHavilland Comet. The Hawker Siddeley came in multiple versions, as did the British Aircraft Corp. BAC-111.
New and Derivative airplanes: Some good, some not; Part 1
First of two parts.
Earlier this year, Airbus officials said they will concentrate on improving existing airplanes once the A350 enters service.
Boeing followed by saying it would not take any “moonshots” and develop new airplanes, at least for some indeterminate time.
The sentiment on the part of both companies is understandable if not disappointing for aviation purists who want to see new and innovative airplane models rather than made-over sub-types.
This is one of those cases where both schools of thought are right. (Text continues below photo.)
Later this month, we will unveil a new, updated Leeham News and Comment with a combination of paid and free content. Watch this space for more information.
New airplanes are, to state the obvious, very expensive to develop and in this increasingly technological age and demand for “smarter” airplanes that are more fuel efficient and which try to improve passenger experience while cramming as many revenue-paying passengers into the airplane as possible, becoming more and more challenging. Where it once was possible to bring an airplane to market within four years of launch, today airframers routinely look at seven years and even eight. Even derivative airplanes are now taking six or seven years to enter service from launch.
Aviation conferences this month
There are two aviation conferences in Washington State this month.
The first is from the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance October 8. The PNAA Space & Security conference, a one day event, will be at the Museum of Flight at Boeing Field in Seattle. The conference is quite timely, considering Boeing just announced job transfers out of Puget Sound from its Defense unit. Two local defense programs that remain, the P-8A Poseidon (based on the 737) and the KC-46A (based on the 767) are on the program for updates.
The British American Business Council (Northwest), or BABC, holds a one day Aerospace Conference, also at the Museum of Flight, on October 28. Airbus Americas will discuss the A-Series Neo programs. NASA will discuss future airplanes, with composites, interiors and other materials also on the agenda.
Odds and Ends: 737 rate hike on cash flow; How the Chicago ATC fire impact unfolded; New PW engine chief
737 rate on on cash flow: The Seattle Times has a good article that described the impact on cash flow the decision by Boeing made to boost 737 production to 52/mo in 2018. The rate hike comes at a time when we believe production rates on the 777 Classic will be bottoming out to perhaps as low as five per month, which of course will negatively affect cash flow at Boeing.
We expect Boeing to further increase production rates of the 737 in 2019. The 777X production will just be in its infancy, with entry-into-service planned for 2020. (Information continues below the picture.)
Later this month, we will unveil a new, updated Leeham News and Comment with a combination of paid and free content. Watch this space for more information.
The decline in production rate of the 777 Classic, which we think will happen in 2017 and a like rate reduction for the 747-8, which we believe will occur as early as 2016, represents the reason why Wall Street analysts are turning more and more bearish on Boeing stock.
Odds and Ends: Coming soon–new Leeham News; Boeing v SPEEA; 86-seat Q400; Boeing 326; Budapest Air Show
Coming soon: We will be rolling out changes this month to Leeham News and Comment. We will expand our News and Analysis, providing the most insightful commentary of aviation issues of any on-line publication. Most on-line news resources either collate into one portal news from around the world, or report news without analysis, or offer superficial analysis. We’re famous (or infamous, depending on your viewpoint) for providing insight in a no-BS manner.
We often report the news before anyone else, and we spot market trends long before others.
For example:
- We concluded in December 2013 that Airbus had to launch the A330neo program, at a time when other on-line publications were still muddling along and even Airbus hadn’t reached its conclusion.
- We were the first to report that Airbus revamped its A350-1000, ahead of the company’s own announcement and before any other media tumbled to the development.
- We’ve been the leading publication to focus on LOPA (Layout Of Passenger Accommodations) and IAC (Integrated Airplane Configuration) when comparing Airbus and Boeing airplanes at a time when other publications didn’t even know the terms.
- Our aircraft economic analysis has the advantage of aerospace engineering background to take into account detailed understanding of aerodynamic improvements, down to the last percentage point.
These changes include transformation into a combination paid and free content site. We’ll have paid content several times a week in addition to our free content.
Changes are coming to Leeham News and Comment this month. Watch this space for details.
Odds and Ends: Boeing firms 52/mo for 737; Product strategy; Aircraft demand and production rates
Boeing firms 52/mo for 737: Boeing this morning announced what we reported in June 2013: that it will go to a production rate of 52/mo for the 737 in 2018. This will not be the last rate increase for the 737.
Airbus previously notified suppliers to be prepared for a rate of 54/mo in 2018 for the A320, which we reported some time ago.
Product strategy: In the continuing tit-for-tat in product strategy debate between Airbus and Boeing, often show slides representing their view of how their products line up vs The Other Guy. We’ve often criticized Boeing for taking liberties with how it views Airbus seat; for example, Boeing assigned fewer than 350 seats to the A350-1000, while Airbus now promotes the airplane as having 369 seats in a J/Y class configuration. Boeing assigns 467 seats to its 747-8I while Airbus to now viewed the 747-8 at 405 seats, a figure we generally use in our analysis to represent typical airline configuration.
Airbus recently showed the following slide presenting its current view of the product line up.
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Posted on October 2, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Leeham News and Comment
737, 747-8I, 777-300ER, 777X, A320, A350, A380, Airbus, Boeing, UBS