Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- GE testing of giant GE9X engine aims for maturity at entry into service June 30, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 28. June 27, 2025
- Parent agency, FAA often at odds as politics outweighs safety June 26, 2025
- Electric Flight and the Ugly Duckling June 25, 2025
- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
Airbus nears finding homes for Air Asia X, Aeroflot widebodies
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By Scott Hamilton
April 11, 2022, © Leeham News: Airbus removed nearly all A330-900s from its backlog to AirAsia X, finally acknowledging what the industry knew for years: this deal was toast, even before the pandemic burnt it.
There are also A350-900s for Aeroflot that now no longer can be delivered.
Aeroflot Airbus A350-900. Source: Airbus.
Despite the widebody marketing being in the dumps, likely for another couple of years, don’t fret about these lost orders. According to market intelligence, Airbus has perhaps three campaigns for the A330neo that may jell within the new few weeks or months.
And the Aeroflot A350s may have a home sooner than anyone would think. Furthermore, some may wind up going to a customer with orders for the Boeing 787 that are in limbo because of the 18-month suspension of deliveries.
Furthermore, Airbus is quietly working to consolidate its dominance in the single-aisle market as the COVID pandemic continues to wind down and Boeing has challenges ramping up its 737 production—and certification of the 737-10 MAX by year-end seems slipping. The ramifications of this slip could be profound.
Summary
- Airbus lining up customers to take Air Asia X canceled A330-900s.
- Aeroflot A350s may find home soon, with a customer awaiting 787 deliveries.
- Boeing’s 737 production rate plans were affected by the China Eastern crash.
- China Eastern crash cause appears trending toward pilot suicide.
Pontifications: Catching up—DHC extends Dash 8 life; 737-10, 777X, A321XLR certifications
Every once in a while, it’s necessary to catch up on this and that….
By Scott Hamilton
April 11, 2022, © Leeham News: The announcement drew little notice because the topic wasn’t sexy. De Havilland Canada last week said that Norway’s Wideroe Airlines became the first operator to sign up to extend the service life of its Dash 8-100s from 120,000 cycles to 160,000 cycles. The carrier previously contracted to extend the life of the Dash 8 from 80,000 cycles to 120,000 cycles.
“Combined, our two Extended Service Programs add another 30 to 40+ years to the operational life of Dash 8-100 aircraft – that’s double the original service life of the aircraft,” DHC’s Robert Mobilio, Vice President Engineering, said in a statement.
The move is significant because there are no replacement aircraft in the 30-seat category. The market for airplanes this size is very small, and any replacement aircraft would likely be beyond the financial reach of many regional carriers. Extending the life of these airplanes—for an astonishing 30-40 years—is the only viable alternative.
DHC is separately evaluating hybrid technology, with engine maker Pratt & Whitney Canada, to make the Dash 8 series more environmentally friendly. A Dash 8-100 will be used for the hybrid-electric demonstrator.
An A330neo freighter, should it happen?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
April 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we started a discussion on what should be Airbus’ response to a 787 freighter. We have seen in a series of articles that the 787 freighter would beat the present A330 freighter, and the question is, will Airbus leave this segment to Boeing, or will it respond?
We look at what’s involved for Airbus to upgrade the present A330-200F to a neo freighter and what performance it would have compared to a 787 freighter.
Summary
- An upgrade of Airbus’ present A330-200F freighter to a neo variant based on the longer, more capable A330-900 would be a modest project for Airbus. All the special bits needed were developed for the A330-200F.
- The resulting A330-900F would be a competitive freighter, and as all needed parts are in serial production today, it could hit the market before a Boeing 787 freighter.
Pontifications: Returning MAX to pre-grounding rate one key to Boeing’s launch of new airplane
April 4, 2022, © Leeham News: Returning the 737 MAX production rate to pre-grounding levels, and beyond, is a key element to positioning Boeing to launch a new airplane program.
By Scott Hamilton
So far, Boeing hasn’t provided any guidance to Wall Street aerospace analysts beyond reaching a rate of 31/month this year.
A month ago, LNA reported that hints of new rates came from Boeing suppliers ATI and Spirit Aerosystems during their investor day presentations. The two days were a week apart. ATI is a parts supplier. Spirit builds entire fuselages for the 737. The investor days suggested that Boeing will return to rate 52, the pre-ground MAX rate, by 2024.
LNA has learned more specific information from its sourcing in the supply chain. Boeing notifies the chain when to expect rate breaks to higher or lower rates for planning purposes.
According to LNA’s latest information, Boeing is planning to achieve a rate of 38 by January 2023 and boost it to a rate of 47 by the summer of 2023. Another rate break would boost production to 52 a month early in 1Q24. When regulators grounded the MAX in March 2019, Boeing was geared up to boost production to 57 a month by year-end.
So far, Boeing apparently hasn’t given guidance to its supply chain beyond rate 52. But if the pattern holds up, rate 57 could be in the cards by the end of 2024. Orders for the MAX, especially for the MAX 10, have picked up nicely.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 12. Hydrogen storage.
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 25, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the energy density by mass and volume for hydrogen and regular Jet fuel (Kerosene), Figure 1.
With this information, we now look at how these fuels can be stored in an aircraft.
Figure 1. The Volume and Mass densities of fuels. Source: Boeing.
Read more
A Boeing 787 freighter, which model and how good? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 24, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we discussed the creation of a Boeing 787 freighter. It shall replace the Boeing 767-300F, which is running into emission rule problems in 2027.
After looking at what 787 variant makes for the best freighter, we now compare the economics of the 787, 767-300F, and A330-200F freighters.
Figure 1. The 767-300F freighter (top) and its possible replacements: 787-8F (middle) and 787-9F (bottom). Source: Leeham Co.
Summary
- When a Boeing 787 freighter arrives at the decade’s end, its economics will change the freighter market’s dynamics.
China Eastern 737 crashes-it is not a MAX
By Scott Hamilton
March 21, 2022, © Leeham News: A China Eastern Airlines Boeing 737-800 (Flight number MYU5735) crashed today while enroute to Guangzhou. All 132 people on board were killed.
For those likely to jump the gun, it is important to note that this 737 was a Next Generation model, not the MAX. The accident airplane was delivered new to the airline in 2015.
A screenshot of a Chinese CCTV video believed to show China Eastern MU5735 moments before crashing near Guangzhou.
According to flight tracking radar images, the flight was at cruising altitude when it nosed over into a vertical dive. A photo circulating on Twitter shows the airplane in a vertical position moments before the crash.
No conclusions may be drawn about the cause of the crash based on the sketchy information available. As a matter of routine investigative procedures, the following will be areas of inquiry, in no particular order:
Boeing sees incumbency as advantage in coming air force tanker procurement
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- The interview with Lockheed Martin appeared Jan. 30.
By Scott Hamilton
KC-46A. Source: Boeing.
March 21, 2022, © Leeham News: Lockheed Martin Co. (LMCO) plans to submit a proposal for the US Air Force’s KC-Y aerial refueling tanker procurement. So does Boeing. LMCO joined with Airbus and will offer a tanker based on the existing Airbus A330 MRTT (Multi-Role Tanker Transport). Boeing will offer a follow-on purchase of the incumbent KC-46A, based on the 767-200ER.
These two aircraft faced off in the KC-X competition. Airbus initially teamed with Northrop Grumman and was awarded the contract. Boeing protested the award on procurement procedural grounds and prevailed. Northrop dropped out of the recompete, which Boeing won in 2011.
The two aircraft will be offered again, but this time, one party doesn’t view the aircraft as competitive. LMCO sees the Airbus airplane, which it brands the LMXT, as complementary to rather than competitive to the KC-46A. Lockheed explains why here.
Boeing, on the other hand, isn’t convinced the USAF will even seek a competitive bid—or that LMCO’s belief that the service wants a larger airplane than the KC-46A to fill a “gap” is correct.
Mike Hafer, senior manager of KC-46A Business Development, explains why.
A Boeing 787 freighter, which variant and how good?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 17, 2022, © Leeham News: Monday, we started a series of articles discussing a possible Boeing 787 freighter. It shall replace the Boeing 767 freighter, one of Boeing’s most-produced models, with over 200 factory freighters delivered.
We use our Airliner Performance Model to understand which 787 variant would be most suitable as a base for a freighter and what performance it would have.
Figure 1. Would a 767-300F replacement (top) be a 787-8F (middle) or 787-9F (bottom)? Source: Leeham Co.
Summary
- Boeing can build a very competitive freighter on the 787 base.
- We analyze which of the different 787 models is the most suitable and predict payload, range, and economics.
Is the 787-8 a freighter of the future?
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By the Leeham News Team
March 15, 2022, © Leeham News: Is the 787-8 a freighter of the future?
Boeing 767-300ERF (top), and concepts of the Boeing 787-8F and Boeing 787-9F. Source: Leeham News.
There will be a glaring hole in Boeing’s freighter offerings by the end of 2027. The cause will be the inability for Boeing to sell aircraft that do not meet emission standards adopted in 2017 by ICAO, the International Civil Aviation Organization, effective in 2027. This will put an end to the current Boeing 767 and 777 freighters. Boeing launched the 777-8F last month, solving the latter problem. But unless some magic occurs, and extensions are granted, Boeing will need to fill the 767 gap with something.