Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
Replacement opportunities for older-generation single-aisle operators
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
March 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Several airlines announced orders for new-generation single-aisle aircraft in recent months. Air France – KLM and jet2.com announced Airbus A320neo family orders, while Allegiant and Qatar announced Boeing 737 MAX deals. SmartLynx, a Latvian ACMI carrier, will operate 737 MAXes on operating leases from SMBC Aviation Capital.
Credit: Allegiant Airlines
Despite the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines are eager to order newer-generation single-aisle aircraft to improve their environmental footprint and secure delivery slots, notably on the A320 production line. The low level of interest rates by historical standards also facilitates those transactions.
(This analysis does not include the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the full impacts of which to commercial aviation are still in the future.)
Such orders represent once-in-a-generation opportunities for OEMs to “flip” an airline away from the other one.
Many airlines operate A320ceos or 737 NGs but have not yet ordered new-generation single-aisle aircraft. LNA analyses this population.
Summary
- Breaking down the population into four categories;
- Airlines unlikely to place orders in the near term;
- Two types of potential customers.
HOTR: When will Boeing return 737 rates to pre-grounding level?
By the Leeham News Team
March 5, 2022, © Leeham News: When will Boeing return the 737 production levels to the pre-grounding rate of 52/mo?
It’s a question that is of key interest to the industry, employees, and the always-looming investment community. Boeing hasn’t given any guidance beyond the 31/mo target sometime this year. The rate is currently in the low-to-mid 20s.
But if one carefully watches the Boeing supply chain, some of these publicly held companies give information to their own investors in public forums from which one can look at Boeing.
For example, Allegheny Technologies Inc., more commonly known as ATI, gave very specific guidance during its Feb. 17 investors’ day. Seaport Global, a boutique shop, covers ATI and was the first to report the guidance.
“ATI stated that, ‘in line with our customers’ forecasts…when we look at 2025, we see single-aisle going to 127/mo,’” Seaport wrote. In this context, ATI’s customers are Airbus, Boeing, and the three engine OEMs. Airbus is considering an A320 family rate 75/mo in 2025. Simple math says Boeing’s MAX rate will be 52/mo by then. In its note, Seaport was more conservative, predicting rate 47 by 2025.
A Boeing 787-10 HGW, how good is it? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 3, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the predicted performance of a new version of Boeing’s 787-10 with an increased Gross Weight as announced by Boeing (called 787-10 HGW by us). We compared its performance and economics to Airbus’ A350-900, the nearest competitor.
The comparison was over a very long route, LAX to Sydney, where the 787-10 HGW performed well but was limited on the cargo side. Now we fly San Franciso to Tokyo, a more typical route for these aircraft, looking at the performance and operating economics.
Summary
- The 787-10 can perform long routes like LAX to Sydney in the HGW version but has payload limits compared with an A350-900.
- On the typical 10 to 12 hours routes, the 787-10 HGW shows its strengths.
The large twin-aisle and freighter replacement market
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Feb. 28th, 2022, © Leeham News: In recent weeks, we compared the 787-10 Heavy Gross Weight (HGW) performance against the A350-900. The 787-10 HGW will impact sales campaigns against the A350-900 and those of larger aircraft, the A350-1000 and 777X, and large freighters.
LNA now analyses the potential replacement market for very large aircraft (seating 350 or more passengers in standard configurations) and large factory-built freighters.
Summary
- Large twin-aisle campaign opportunities;
- Passenger and cargo fleet commonality considerations;
- Large factory freighter operators.
Pontifications: Ukraine impact on commercial aviation
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 28, 2022, © Leeham News: The clouds are very dark over Ukraine today. The unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by an international autocratic lying amoral thug is horrible. What the implications are for neighboring European countries, the greater Europe, the US, and the rest of the world won’t be fully understood for months.
But reality is reality, and LNA’s focus on commercial aviation must look at things from this perspective—narrow as it is in the context of human tolls underway in Ukraine now. In the dark cloud of the Ukraine crisis, we must look at what the impacts might be on commercial aviation.
HOTR: Putin can shut down commercial aviation, consultant warned
Feb. 24, 2022, © Leeham News: The invasion by Russia into Ukraine could shut down commercial aviation production, a supply chain consultant expert predicted earlier this month.
Kevin Michaels, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory, a supply-chain consulting firm, warned at a supplier conference Feb. 8 that Russian President Vladimir Putin “could shut down the commercial aerospace business if he chose to do so.”
A Boeing 787-10 HGW, how good is it?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 24, 2022, © Leeham News: The CEO of Boeing Commercial Aircraft (BCA), Stan Deal, said at the Singapore Air show the company worked on increased gross weight versions of both the 787-9 and -10.
Target is to get the 787-10 to the range of the aircraft it shall replace, the 777-200ER and -300ER. It means more than 7,000nm of range against the 6,400nm of today.
How many tonnes of increased Gross weight does this mean, and what would be the performance compared with the Airbus A350-900? We use our airliner performance model to find out.
Summary
- The 787-10 can grow to a range of over 7,000nm with a modest increase of its gross weight.
- It will be competitive with the A350-900 but for the longest routes in such a variant.
Pontifications: Advice for Boeing in the coming KC-Y campaign
Part 6: The KC-X competition from Boeing’s perspective
By Scott Hamilton
Feb 21, 2022, © Leeham News: Jim Albaugh, the former president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes and of Boeing’s defense unit, retired from the company in 2012. He oversaw the first competitive bid at the defense unit for the US Air Force KC-X refueling tanker. That was lost to Northrop Grumman-EADS (Airbus) in 2009.
As CEO of BCA, he oversaw commercial efforts to get Boeing’s cost down on the 767-200ER, which formed the basis for what became the KC-46A tanker. Defense won this round against a solo EADS bid. Boeing’s winning price was about 10% below the EADS bid for its A330-based MRTT.
Years removed from Boeing but nevertheless an interested observer with experience on the losing and winning bids, Albaugh has some observations and advice as Boeing prepared to compete against Lockheed Martin-Airbus for the KC-Y campaign that already has unofficially begun.
“Downfall” and “Boeing’s Fatal Flaw”
Feb. 17, 2022, (c) Leeham News: Tomorrow the documentary movie Downfall will be available on Netflix and, probably, Youtube. Unveiled during the Sundance film festival, Downfall is about the Boeing 737 MAX crisis.
The producers’ staff of Downfall contacted me during their research. I told them, among other things, that you had to know what else was going on at the time at Boeing when MAX was launched in July 2011 in order to understand the full context of Boeing during that period. The underlying thesis–that re-engining the 737 and decisions made–wasn’t only about profit, shareholder value, or greed, as many suggested. In fact, Boeing reported a $4bn in 2011 despite the pressures.
- The 787 hadn’t been delivered. It was three years late. Boeing was billions and billions over budget.
- The 747-8 was late and billions over budget.
- The tanker contract had been awarded the previous February with a bid 10% less than Airbus—and as we now know, it, too was late and billions over budget.
- Boeing’s engineering resources were stretched to the point where engineers were diverted to the 787 from other programs and outsourcing engineering work to India and Russia was done. The work from India on the 747-8 was poor and had to be re-done by SPEEA, further straining resources.
The new Boeing freighter, 777-8F, versus Airbus’ A350F, Part 3
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 16, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the operating economics of the Boeing 777-8F and Airbus A350F. Both freighters are new launches over the last 6 months with planned service entry 2025 (A350F) and 2027 (777-8F).
We flew the freighters with the help of our Aircraft Performance Model over a typical freight trunk route from Shanghai to Anchorage at a full load and compared their economics with the present freighter in this class, the Boeing 777F. Readers demanded we fly them with a part load and on shorter routes, so here we go.
Summary
- When we vary the payload and the route length, the economic differences between the freighters stay roughly the same.