Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
European bloodbath dumps aircraft back into market
Sept. 25, 2019, © Leeham News: As many as 135 Airbus and Boeing jets could be dumped on the market following the bankruptcies or cessation of operations of five airlines and a financially distressed sixth carrier that is a subsidiary of one of the bankrupt ones.
Thomas Cook, the travel company that is parent to Thomas Cook Airlines, Thomas Cook Scandinavia and Condor Airlines decla
red insolvency Monday. The two Thomas Cook airlines ceased operations.
Condor maintained service for now and received an emergency loan of €380m loan from the German government. But its long-term survival may depend on acquisition by the Lufthansa Group.
Boeing Board Aerospace Safety Committee recommends realignment, enhancement of procedures
Admiral Edmund Giambastiani (Ret). Photo credit: Wetheitalians.com
Sept. 25, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing today outlined the results of the investigation of a special Board of Directors committee formed in August that creates new processes and organizational structures aimed at preventing another 737 MAX crisis and improving safety within Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
The Board-level Aerospace Safety Committee is the four-member committee announced by Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg following the second fatal accident of the MAX in March.
Admiral Edmund Giambastiani (Ret), a former nuclear submarine officer, chaired the committee. As a result of the committee’s work, the following recommendations have been made:
- Create a Product and Services Safety Organization;
- Realign the Engineering Function;
- Establish a Design Requirements Program;
- Enhance the Continued Operation Safety Program;
- Re-examine flight deck design and operation; and
- Expand the role and reach of the Safety Promotion Center.
Milestone for Embraer with the E195-E2
Sept. 18, 2019, © Leeham News: Embraer passed a milestone last week with the delivery of the first E195-E2, to Azul Airlines of Brazil.
The airplane is the largest Embraer has designed. It’s bigger than the KC-390 tanker-transport. It’s longer than the Boeing 737-8 but shorter than the Boeing 737-9. It carries 146 passengers in high density configuration.
The marketing head for Embraer’s US offices says the E195-E2 will be the sales leader while the CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation, John Slattery, said it will account for a third of program sales.
Either way, LNA’s Bjorn Fehrm was on site for the delivery and tomorrow will begin a series of articles analyzing the design of the E195-E2 and its economics compared with its nearest competitor, the Airbus A220.
Pontifications: Spirit Air reveals new seats at Apex
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 16, 2019, © Leeham News: Los Angeles—Spirit Airlines, a US ultra-low-cost carrier, is upgrading its passenger seating experience, the airline’s CEO announced last week at the Apex Expo 2019 event.
Ted Christie unveiled new designs for its Big Front Seat—Spirit’s version of First Class—and coach seats that are ergonomically designed and intended to add more room and redefine how seats are measured.
The Big Front Seat appears little different than the previous version—more padding seems to be the main feature.
But the changes to coach seating, where most people fly, are billed to have the potential to make a big difference compared with the ever-slimmer, increasingly uncomfortable seats offered by many suppliers and installed on most airlines.
WTO clears US for $10bn in tariffs in Airbus subsidy case
Sept. 14, 2019, © Leeham News: The World Trade organization Friday concluded that the US may impose up to $10bn in tariffs against the European Union as a final result of the 15-year trade dispute over Airbus subsidies.
Politico first reported the WTO decision, which has not been made public.
Airbus issued a terse statement.
“The WTO decision is neither public nor authorized for release. We do not comment on rumors on a report that is not public,” a spokesman said in an email. “Aviation is a global industry, and no aircraft comes from one single country or zone. Nobody will win — it’s a lose-lose for the whole industry if we move to tariffs.”
Boeing declined comment.
Look to 2013 787 grounding to see how Boeing will return MAX to service
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 13, 2019, © Leeham News: As Boeing prepares for what it hopes is an imminent recertification of the 737 MAX from the Federal Aviation Administration, how it will handle the logistics of returning 381 grounded airplanes to service and delivering nearly 300 more undelivered 737s is key.
One need look to the only other time a Boeing jetliner, the 787, was grounded and how “One Boeing” coalesced to attack what was then its largest logistical task for its commercial airplanes unit.
The return to service of the 787 paled compared with the task facing Boeing today. In 2013, there were only 50 787s grounded worldwide after two lithium ion battery incidents: one fire and one near-fire, one on the ground and the other as the airplane took off.
In 2013, the production rate of the 787 was in the single digits per month. The 737 is being produced at a rate of 42/mo.
In 2013, there were a few score of 787s parked around Everett’s Paine Field awaiting delivery. Today, the nearly 600 737s are scattered around four locations in Washington State, a Boeing facility in Texas and various airline storage areas around the globe.
In May 2013, I wrote a freelance piece for CNN’s website how Boeing planned to return the 787 to service. This story may be found here.
A321 accounts for 50%+ of future deliveries; few production gaps
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Introduction
Sept. 12, 2019, © Leeham News: More than half the Airbus A320 family scheduled for delivery over the next four years will be the A321neo, according to an analysis performed by LNA.
Airbus is sold out through 2024 the current production rate of 60/mo or 720 per year.
The production rate increases to 63/mo next year, although LNA doesn’t have a precise time when this occurs.
A variable is also whether a full 12 months of production is calculated, or only 11 ½ months to allow for the summer vacation shutdown.
Either way, the production gaps appear manageable through 2024.
Summary
- Previous Airbus forecasts A321 would account for half of production were viewed skeptically.
- A321 long-term future depends on Boeing’s decision over the New Midmarket Airplane.
Pontifications: Next few weeks critical to aerospace industry
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 9, 2019, © Leeham News: Reports increased last week that Europe’s EASA safety regulator may go its own way in recertifying the Boeing 737 MAX.
The head of IATA, the international trade group, and CEOs of several airlines and one lessor expressed fear and concern EASA won’t act with the Federal Aviation Administration to lift grounding orders of the MAX.
At the Regional Airline Assn. annual conference last week, buzz among journalists focused on one unverified report, based on EASA’s doubts reported during the week yet to hit the media, could significantly extend the grounding—measured in months, not weeks.
I know efforts are being made to verify the information.
If true, the effects would be devastating.
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by steel or electrical wire, Part 7.
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 6, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”) we discussed the flight control laws which are implemented with classical flight controls compared with the Embraer E-Jet and Airbus A320 FBW systems last week.
Now we describe alternative FBW approaches, analyzing Boeing’s 777/787 system and Airbus’ A220 system.
Figure 1. Boeing’s 777 and 787 FBW system architecture. Source: Boeing.
Opportunity and challenges of a 787-10ER, Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
September 5, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we examined how a longer-range model of Boeing’s 787-10 would look like. We designed a 787-10ER version (ER for Extended Range) by increasing the Maximum TakeOff Weight of the aircraft. We also did some other adjustments to accommodate the increased weight.
We now compare the resulting aircraft with its nearest competitor, the Airbus A350-900. How would a 787-10ER stack up against an A350-900?
Summary:
- A 787-10ER is a narrower aircraft with a smaller wing than an A350-900. This affects passenger comfort but it also gives a lighter aircraft with less wetted area.
- The later generation engines on the A350-900 closes the difference in operating costs depending on how the aircraft is operated.