Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing Announces Preliminary Significant Q3 Loss: Cuts 767 Freighter Program, Delays 777X EIS, Major Layoffs October 11, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 28. Wrapup. October 11, 2024
- Boeing strike hits suppliers, Airbus steps in October 10, 2024
- Boeing-IAM contract talks fail, no new negotiations scheduled, no end in sight October 9, 2024
- Boeing 3Q deliveries up despite strike October 8, 2024
The engine manufacturers worst hit by the pandemic
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
September 28, 2020, © Leeham News: The worldwide COVID-19 pandemic is shaking the air travel and airliner manufacturing industries like no crisis before.
More than 9/11, the oil crisis of 1973 or 2005 or the financial crisis of 2008. The problems for the airlines and the airframe OEMs are on the front pages of the world’s media.
The part of the airliner industry that is not so visible but is perhaps hardest hit, is the engine industry. Its weird business model amplifies the effects of the crisis.
Summary
- Airframe OEMs lose money on the first hundreds of aircraft produced.
- When they announce “black numbers”, it means the per aircraft losses stop. It doesn’t mean the aircraft program is positive.
- For engine OEMs, it’s worse. They never reach ‘black numbers” on engine production. Their only money makers are old engine programs that fly a lot.
A380 service life struggles
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Sep. 30, 2019, © Leeham News: It hasn’t been an easy year for the Airbus A380 program since the end of production was announced in February.
Lufthansa announced in March that Airbus would buy back six A380s in 2022/2023 as part of a follow up order for 20 A350-900s. Air France intends to retire its Superjumbo fleet by 2022. Emirates retired two aircraft that were less than seven years old.
A number of factors are leading airlines to prematurely retire their A380s.
Summary
- Small MRO market increases maintenance costs;
- (Prohibitively) expensive cabin refurbishments;
- Operators struggling to operate profitably year-round;
- A lack of secondary market;
- No business case for engine PIPs.
Pontifications: March is a critical month for engine OEMs
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 25, 2019, © Leeham News: Even as Boeing put off a decision whether to launch the New Midmarket Aircraft until 2020, next month could be an important milestone—not only for the program but especially for the engine makers.
Unless delayed, engine down-select is supposed to be made in March.
This is a critical decision that could have huge implications to one of the engine OEMs—Rolls-Royce.
Is the A380 less economical than a 777-300ER?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
December 06, 2018, © Leeham News.: Our Monday article “A380 suffers new blow, future remains bleak” describes how Air France hands back five of their 10 Airbus A380-800 to their lessor with start next year.
The article details the reasons behind the returns. Other media writes the A380 are notably more expensive to run than a Boeing 777-300ER. As so often, this is a serious case of apples and oranges.
Summary:
- To compare aircraft like-for-like, they need to be compared with the same rules for cabins and operations.
- When this is done, the A380 is not more expensive to operate than a 777-300ER.
- The caveat is: if filled to the same load factor.
Read more
Leahy remains steadfast in A380 future
Feb. 16, 2018, © Leeham Co.: It’s been a long struggle and there isn’t a re-engining any time soon, but John Leahy still firmly believes in the market viability of the Airbus A380.
John Leahy stand behind the Airbus A380. Photo via Google images.
Leahy, who retired last month as COO-Customers, continues to support the transition to Eric Schulz, EVP, Chief of Sales, Marketing & Contracts. One of Leahy’s last deals was to firm up an A380 MOU for 20 orders and 16 options for Emirates Airline.
In his final retirement interview with LNC, Leahy didn’t waver from the messaging Airbus used since the launch of the A380 program in 2000: passenger traffic doubles every 15 years, no new airports and few new runways are being added in Europe, the US or Asia outside of China and the need for the A380 remains.
A380Plus: First analysis, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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July 10, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: We went through the changes that are included in the Airbus A380Plus development study last week.
The study packages several improvements to the A380, improving the aerodynamics, increasing the passenger capacity and lowering maintenance costs.
The aim is to improve the cost per seat of the A380 to keep it competitive with the new Boeing 777-9. With the rundown of the improvements complete we now use our aircraft model to see if the cost per passenger can compete with the 777.
Summary:
- The A380Plus improvements makes the A380 competitive on Cash Operating seat mile Costs with the Boeing 777-9.
- The problem on how to fill the 70% larger A380 remains. It needs other solutions.
A380Plus: First analysis
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 05, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus launched the A380Plus development study at the Paris Air Show. The study packages several improvements to the A380, aimed at increasing the capacity and lowering the cost per passenger. The idea is to offer the advantages of an A380neo without changing the engines.
Does this work? We published a first reaction here. We now take a closer look at what was presented and analyze how the package will influence the economics of the A380. Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engine maintenance, Part 6
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 7, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Last week’s Corner developed the overhaul shop visits per year for wide-body engines. We will now look at how the market develops around these overhaul opportunities.
How does the shop structure develop over a popular engine’s life-cycle? How much choice has an operator and when?
Figure 1. Principal picture of a three-shaft wide-body turbofan with station numbers. Source: GasTurb.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engine maintenance, Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 24, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: After covering the maintenance market for single-aisle engines, time has come for the engines used on wide-body aircraft. The engine maintenance for a wide-body engine is a bit different to the single-aisle engine. The difference is caused by the longer flight times for the wide-bodies. This makes the flight time wear a more dominant maintenance driver than it is for the single-aisle engines.
The changes in overhaul work caused by the difference in flight profiles and the lower number of engines in the market (compared to the single aisles) will affect how the overhaul market is structured and who are the dominant players.
Figure 1. Principal picture of a tri-shaft turbofan for the wide-body market. Source: GasTurb.