Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 4. July 3, 2025
- GE testing of giant GE9X engine aims for maturity at entry into service June 30, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 28. June 27, 2025
- Parent agency, FAA often at odds as politics outweighs safety June 26, 2025
- Electric Flight and the Ugly Duckling June 25, 2025
Embraer 1Q2022 results; lower deliveries as Commercial aircraft division is re-integrated
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 5, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Embraer presented its 1Q2022 results today. The airframer had lower deliveries for Commercial aircraft and Business jets than in the 1st quarter of last year after shutting down production in January to reintegrate the Commercial aircraft division.
Despite a lower revenue for the quarter, the EBITs were similar, and free cash flow usage was down as Embraer has trimmed its cost base. Sales were positive, and the backlog has grown to $17.3bn from $15.9bn 1Q2021. Profits before tax were -$32m compared with a -$90m a year ago. The company confirmed the 2022 guidance.
Pontifications: Horizon’s plan to focus on single fleet type appears a blow to TPNG hopes
March 29, 2022, © Leeham News: Alaska Air Group announced last week that its subsidiary, Horizon Air, will retire 32 De Havilland Canada (DHC) Dash-8-400s by the end of 2023. The regional airline will go to a single fleet type, the Embraer E175-E1. AAG owns some of the 175s. Regional partner SkyWest owns and operates others.
By Scott Hamilton
The plan adds to the struggles of DHC to return to service -400s stored at the start of the COVID pandemic. At the end of 2021, there were more than 150 stored. As of last week, this number was down to 142, according to the ch-aviation data base. Another 17 were in maintenance. There were 398 in service. The number stored represents 25% of the -400 fleet.
Consolidating to a single fleet type doesn’t bode well for Embraer’s efforts to win Alaska/Horizon as a launch customer for its new TPNG. This advanced turboprop, proposed in 70- and 90-seat versions, has engines mounted on pods at the rear in the latest concept shown to the industry. A new engine will replace the aging but reliable Pratt & Whitney PW-series used on the Dash 8 and ATR-42/72. P&W, GE and Rolls-Royce are developing a new generation engine.
Embraer wants to launch the program this year with a proposed entry into service of 2027.
Pontifications: Embraer launches E1 Jet P2F program
March 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Embraer announced today that it launched a conversion program for its E190-E1 and E195-E1 jets.
By Scott Hamilton
“The full freighter conversion is available for all pre-owned E190 and E195 aircraft, with entry into service expected in early 2024. Embraer sees a market for this size of airplane of approximately 700 aircraft over 20 years,” Embraer said in a statement.
Embraer notes that there are a number of E1 jets aged 10-15 years old that are potential feedstock. The replacement cycle for these continues for the next decade, it said. The company sees a life extension of 10-15 years post-conversion.
Embraer aims to replace turboprop freighters. The E1 Freighters have 50% more volume, three times the range, and up to 30% lower operating costs than narrowbody freighters. (It avoids mentioning that turboprops have lower operating costs than the E-Jets.)
Forecast 2022: ATR has monopoly, De Havilland looks to hydrogen and Embraer lurks with new design
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Jan. 31, 2022, © Leeham News: ATR is now effectively the only turboprop manufacturer outside of China and Russia in the 40-80 seat sector. The models are the ATR 42-600, ATR 42-600S (STOL), and ATR 72-600.
The series was built on simplicity with unpowered controls and the simplest possible systems. It has worked well for ATR when selling to markets that want airlift to the lowest possible cost. It also means the design is at its limits capacity and speed-wise, any more capacity or performance and it needs powered controls and more elaborate systems. It was behind ATR’s desire to develop a new, larger model in the past.
But ATR has little reason to develop a new turboprop now that it is in a monopoly position. This could change if Embraer proceeds with its concept for a new family of two turboprops, a 70- and a 90-seat aircraft. Embraer’s base design could form the basis of a hydrogen-burning gas turbine model in the future.
Carbon footprint: Regional jet versus turboprop, how large is the difference?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
January 27, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we kicked off a series of articles where we will measure what difference our choice of flying makes to the primary Greenhouse gas emission, CO2.
We have upgraded our airliner performance model for the series to give a direct output of the CO2 emissions for the flights in different phases.
We start this week by comparing a typical domestic feeder flight of 300 nm, with an example route of Cleveland to Chicago O’Hare. What will be the time differences? And the fuel burn and CO2 emission difference?
To make it a fair comparison, we’ll use present generation aircraft flying on the US market, the Embraer E175 and De Havilland’s DH 8-400. We will fly the DH 8 at a high-speed cruise to keep the flight time differences within 10 minutes.
Horizon Air DH 8-400. Source: Wikipedia.
Summary
- As expected, the turboprop is the more efficient mode of transportation on the route. It consequently emits less CO2 per transported passenger.
- With new, more comfortable turboprops in the works, the drive for sustainability could see a return of the turboprop to the US market.
Forecast 2022: Embraer
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
January 10, 2022, © Leeham News: Embraer is the dominant regional jet aircraft supplier with a worldwide footprint and faces little competition to its products below 100 seats.
Between 100 to 150 seats, the situation is another after Bombardier “sold” its CSeries project to Airbus. Airbus’ might as aircraft OEM rekindled the CSeries as Airbus A220, and it’s now a vivid competitor to Embraer over 100 seats.
With a market it dominates and another where competition increases, we look at what’s in store for Embraer for 2022 as it hopes to exit the COVID pandemic for better times.
Embraer’s revised Turboprop. Source: Embraer.
Summary
- Embraer is a complete supplier with capable development, production, and worldwide support for its regional jets.
- Everything would be good had Bombardier, a player the size of Embraer, slugged it out with CSeries. The hand-over of the modern aircraft to Airbus changed the competitive landscape.
P&W, Embraer pause E175-E2 engine; MTU writes off investment, sees no revenue in future for SpaceJet engine
By Scott Hamilton
Exclusive: Dec. 21, 2021, © Leeham News: Pratt & Whitney and Embraer agreed to suspend further development and production of the PW1700G for three years, LNA learned.
Another airplane without an engine.
PW and Embraer did not respond to inquiries. Separately, the aerospace company MTU reported earlier this year that it wrote off its entire investment in the PW1200G and expects no revenue from the program in the future.
Update: P&W provided this statement Dec. 22: “As already informed to the market, Embraer and P&W are evaluating E175-E2 program timing given market conditions and scope clause.“
The engine was developed for the Mitsubishi MRJ. Development of the MRJ90 and follow-on MRJ70 were refined to the M100 SpaceJet when analysis concluded the MRJ90 wasn’t economically competitive with the E190-E2. A myriad of technical flaws also was discovered in the flight test vehicles that rendered the original design uncertifiable.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries indefinitely suspended the SpaceJet program in 2020. Embraer rescheduled the entry-into-service of the E175-E2 from 2021 twice, now targeting EIS for 2025. This depends on US pilot unions relaxing an airplane weight restriction in the labor contracts. The E175-E2 weight exceeds that allowed in the contracts.
HOTR: Restarting M100 SpaceJet program is a very, very long runway
By the Leeham News Team
Dec. 21, 2021, © Leeham News: Speculation that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) may restart the M100 SpaceJet program seems
unrealistic.
The consulting firm Avascent on Dec. 8 reported that MHI and the Japanese government may complete the M90 SpaceJet (formerly the MRJ90) airplanes. This could lead to restarting the M100 SpaceJet.
LNA believes the former might happen. It doubts the latter will. Here’s why.
HOTR: Dropping Embraer comes back to bite Boeing
By the Leeham News Staff
Updated with details of Air France – KLM order
Dec. 16, 2021, © Leeham News: When Boeing decided to drop its joint venture plan with Embraer, there were good business reasons to do so.
The grounding of the 737 MAX was dragging on much longer than anyone ever expected, and there was no end in sight. The coronavirus infections exploded into a global pandemic the month before. Air transportation plunged as much as 95%. Airlines were grounding fleets and some, at that 
point, looked certain to go bankrupt or go out of business. Boeing was bleeding cash and debt exploded by more than $20bn. The company was in survival mode.
Embraer faced the same industrial and customer challenges Boeing did. And while none of its airplanes were grounded, the E175-E2 turned out to be an airplane with no customers because the US market for which it was designed disappeared. Restrictions in pilot contracts limiting the weight of airlines in regional operations killed the airplane.
Finally, Embraer’s market value at the time the joint venture was agreed was set at $4.5bn. By April 2020, it had fallen to $1.25bn. Given the business environment and the drop in value, why pay the higher price?
With Qantas Airways abandoning Boeing, we now know why going through with the deal may have been smart.
2022 Outlook depends largely on pandemic, Boeing recovery
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By the Leeham News Team
Dec. 13, 2021, © Leeham News: Attempting a forecast for the new year historically has been reasonably easy. One just started with the stability of the current years, and maybe the previous one or two years, and looked forward to next year.
Until the Boeing 737 MAX grounding, COVID-19 pandemic, and the Boeing 787 suspension of deliveries.
These events upended everything. Boeing’s outlook for 2020 depended on what happened to return the MAX to service. The grounding, initially expected by many to be measured in months, ultimately was measured in years.
The 2020 outlook for the rest of the aircraft manufacturers blew up that March with the global pandemic.
Then, in October 2020, Boeing suspended deliveries of the 787, exacerbating its cash flow crunch.
Commercial aviation began to recover some in late 2020. Airbus, which reduced but didn’t suspend deliveries throughout 2020, saw signs of hope for the narrowbody market—less so for widebody airplanes.
There is a lot of uncertainty, however, that makes looking even one year ahead challenging.