Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Pontifications: A Personal Note June 19, 2025
- Airbus books 142 firm orders as Boeing retracts from the Paris Air Show June 19, 2025
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next
By Scott Hamilton
June 14, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus and Boeing forecast a significant production gap during the next 20 years of more than 2,000 aircraft per year in their current outlooks released in conjunction with the Paris Air Show. The event begins Monday.
Neither company can fill this gap given their current production rates and the goals they have for the rest of this decade.
This means other manufacturers must step up. The question is who?
China’s Comac is current producing a competitor to the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX, the C919. But the production rate is excruciatingly low.
Comac also has plans for a widebody airplane to compete with the Airbus A330-900 and Boeing 787. If past is prologue, development of this aircraft will be much longer than the target entry into service of 2029.
Embraer currently is the world’s third largest airliner manufacturer. However, its jets seat between 76- and 144 seat. The company is studying whether to enter the mainline jet sector, but the decision seems a year or more away.
Start-up JetZero wants to develop a Blended Wing Body aircraft for the 250-300 seat sector. But it has little money, no engine and, LNA believes, little hope of meeting the ambitious timeline of having a demonstrator aircraft by 2027.
In a media briefing on June 13, Airbus named Boeing as its medium-term competitor; China is most like to become one; Embraer is a question mark; and JetZero appears to be making little progress, in its view.
Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry
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By Scott Hamilton
June 2, 2025, © Leeham News: Little in the way of product development or new airplanes is expected at the Paris Air Show, which begins on June 16. No new commercial airplane programs will be forthcoming from Airbus, Boeing, or Embraer. Nor will any new commercial engines be forthcoming from GE Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, or CFM International (a GE-Safran joint venture).
Instead, the air show briefings are most likely to be progress reports, discussions about new materials and sustainability.
One new entrant that is still in the research and development stage, with the production of a demonstrator aircraft underway, is JetZero. The start-up is developing a 250-passenger Blended Wing Body airplane (BWB) designed for the middle of the market (250-300 seats) currently occupied by the aging Airbus A330-200/300 and Boeing 767-300ER; and the newer Boeing 787-8 and Airbus A330neo.
JetZero has daunting tasks ahead to successfully bring its BWB, called the Z4, to the market. It needs $7bn to $10bn (it has, publicly, less than $300m). JetZero plans to make a site selection announcement any day now, before the air show. An entirely new production plant is required. It needs to build the plant, production tooling and the final assembly line.
One of the keys to the program is the reliance on a digital twin production plant and innards. JetZero has hired the giant firm Siemens to help design the digital twin, an effort that Siemens officials predict will reduce the time to build the facility by 20%-30 %.
Boeing and Airbus have identified advanced production processes as key to the next new airplane, whatever it may be. When Boeing was pondering the New Midmarket Airplane (NMA) for the Middle of the Market (MOM), officials said production was more important than the airplane itself.
The BWB has a long way to go before flying passengers, freight
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By Scott Hamilton
Figure 1. The Horten flying wing developed by the Germans toward the end of World War II. Credit: Michael Jorgensen via BBC.
May 12, 2025, © Leeham News: The Blended Wing Body airplane concept has been around for decades. Its cousins, if you will, appeared in the form of flying wings. The Germans developed the Horten at the end of World War II; it never made it into service.
Northrop Grumman developed propeller- and jet-powered flying wings after World War II. Neither concept was picked up by the US Air Force.
Figure 2. The Northrop YB-49 flying wing developed post-World War II. Credit: Northrop.
It wasn’t until development of the Northrop Grumman B-2 bomber that the flhing wing, or Blended Wing Body, aircraft became an operational reality.
Figure 3. Northrop Grumman B-2 bomber. The similarities with the JetZero Z4 BWB are apparent. Credit: Northrop Grumman.
But none has been able to make the leap into commercial aviation service. JetZero hopes to make this leap in the early 2030s, but it’s got a lot to accomplish between now and then.
Related Article
JetZero readies effort for private equity funding
Many of these challenges were outlined by LNA last week. But there are more.
JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising
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By Scott Hamilton
May 5, 2025, © Leeham News: JetZero, the start-up company developing commercial aviation’s first passenger Blended Wing Body (BWB) airplane, is gearing up to seek private equity funding for billions of dollars needed to bring its aircraft to market.
JetZero president and COO Dan da Silva demonstrates the human scale of the Z4 Blended Wing Body mock-up at the company’s Long Beach (CA) facility. Credit: Leeham News.
In a media day on Friday, executives and staff briefed reporters on progress to date, production work on the first full-size demonstrator aircraft, technical details and studies continuing an production plans.
Officials expect to announce a site selection for its final assembly plant in the coming weeks, before the Paris Air Show that begins in mid-June.
JetZero’s airliner is dubbed the Z4. It’s nominally a 250-passenger, 5,000nm design for the so-called Middle of the Market currently occupied by out-of-production and aging Boeing 767-300ERs, Airbus A330-200s and a limited number of Boeing 757s. Entry-into-service is targeted for the “early 2030s.” The first flight of the demonstrator aircraft is planned for 2027.
JetZero has an ambitious goal for producing the composite aircraft. The final assembly site, for which the company has down-selected the finalists, will be on a 1,000 acre site with a building about the size of Boeing’s widebody plant in Everett (WA). Boeing’s Everett site is somewhat larger than 1,000 acres.
JetZero is planning for a monthly production rate of 20 five years after production begins. The company has hundreds of conditional orders from major airlines.
Daunting tasks remain in the coming years. Among them: there is currently no engine commitment for the airplane; a product support system is needed; finalizing the method to product the composite airplane; “flying” the iron bird; and much more.
JetZero sees big sales potential, but consultants say it won’t be them to bring BWB to market
By Scott Hamilton
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JetZero Z4 commercial BWB and USAF tanker concepts. Credit: JetZero.
Feb. 10, 2025, © Leeham News: There will be a surge in aircraft replacement requirements as today’s Airbus A320neos and Boeing 737 MAXes age. Simultaneously, the seating capacity of aircraft is increasing, says Michel Merluzeau, the Head of Sales Engineering and Market Development for the start-up company JetZero.
JetZero is developing the first commercial blended wing body (BWB) aircraft, a 250-plus seat design with a goal of reducing fuel consumption by 50% over the remaining Boeing 767s and Airbus A330ceos still in operation.
Merluzeau joined JetZero last year after decades as a consultant in commercial and defense aerospace sectors. He spoke last week to the annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance in a Seattle suburb.
The replacement forecast and the up-gauging will open a replacement market for at least 7,000 aircraft, Merluzeau said, for which JetZero’s Z4 concept is designed.