Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Antonov betting on Western technology
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 14, 2016, ©. Leeham Co, Farnborough Air Show: The company Antonov is world renowned for its rugged transport aircraft. The recent An-124 Ruslan and An-225 Mriya super-heavy transporters are the world’s largest transport aircraft. Both fly daily for the Antonov companies own airline, transporting outsize cargo for companies like Boeing, Airbus, GE, Rolls-Royce and others.
The worlds largest aircraft, the heavy air-lifter An-225 Mriya. Source: Antonov.
The air freighter company is what keeps Antonov afloat, for it has been hit hard by the fall of the Soviet Union and Ukraine’s decision to split with the Russian Federation and orient itself to the West. Read more
Bombardier’s CS100 media flight demonstrates quiet
July 10, 2016, (c) Leeham Co.: Our coverage of the Farnborough Air Show (#FIA16 on Twitter) begins today, with a media flight on the Bombardier CS100. The day was rainy and somewhat turbulent until the flight got above the clouds. Some videos are jumpy as a result.
There are several videos about the flight and some with interviews following the page break.
Quiet taxi
The first video is intended to demonstrate the quiet Pratt & Whitney engines during taxi.
Farnborough Air Show preview: expectations and possible surprises
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Introduction
July 4, 2016, © Leeham Co: The Farnborough Air Show begins next Monday and predictably, focus will be on orders.
With new airplanes from Airbus and Boeing past their development stages, conventional wisdom says there won’t be much new in this arena.
Don’t be so sure.
Bombardier is now on an upward trajectory, but don’t look for a big splash at #FIA16 (for those looking for this year’s Twitter handle). Embraer will have its E190-E2 at the show.
It’s Boeing’s 100th Anniversary and the company is rolling out the history for the show.
Summary
- No new products from Airbus.
- Boeing may have a surprise.
- Low number of orders anticipated.
Pontifications: Airbus CXLs A320, A350 August vacations
By Scott Hamilton
June 20, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Airbus officials canceled the annual August vacations in Europe for the A320 and A350 production lines.
The A320neo and A350-900 are backing up on the delivery lines because of supplier issues with the Pratt & Whitney GTF for the former and galley and lav issues from Zodiac for the latter.
Qatar Airways Airbus A320neo awaiting new-production Pratt & Whitney GTF engines with fixes incorporated. Photo via Google images.
The delays and issues are well documented in the press and for aerospace analysts.
“I cannot confirm that rumor for you,” an Airbus spokesman wrote LNC in an email. “I can tell you that we are putting in place extra resources to deliver on our 2016 commitments and objectives in terms of deliveries, but we are not going into detail on what that looks like at this stage.”
Thinking outside the box at Pratt & Whitney
June 16, 2016, © Leeham Co.: “I’m working on six or eight engines. The more the better.”
This startling statement comes from Alan Epstein, vice president of technology and the environment for Pratt & Whitney.
It runs counter to everything the airline industry has believed since the introduction of the twin-engine Boeing 767 was qualified for ETOPS in the early 1980s: fewer engines are better.
Epstein explained his statement during an interview with LNC at the United Technologies Media Days last week in Hartford (CT).
Epstein last year at the same event told LNC he was looking at four-engine technology for future airplanes. We asked him this year if he was still looking at four engines. That’s when he said he was looking at six.
It’s his job to think outside the box. This one clearly qualifies.
Mid-Market airplane comes before A320, 737 replacement: Pratt & Whitney exec
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Introduction
June 16, 2016, © Leeham Co.: A middle of the market airplane will come before a replacement for the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737, predicts Alan Epstein, vice
Alan Epstein, VP technology and environment, Pratt & Whitney.
president of technology and the environment for Pratt & Whitney.
“The challenge to the business of the narrow-bodies is the A320s and the 737s are so learned-out that Boeing and Airbus are so efficient at building those airplanes, that their inherent cost is so low, it’s extremely difficult to move into that market,” Epstein said. “Because the learning curve, you need incredibly deep pockets and you’re going to be negative for a long time.
“I think that also applies to Airbus and Boeing,” Epstein said, referring to the prospect of a new single-aisle aircraft.
Summary
- New single aisle airplane would be a “white elephant” for 10 years.
- Engines need to be at least 10% more efficient than today’s GTF and LEAP for a new single-aisle aircraft.
- Middle-Market airplane likely to come first.
Pontifications: GTF faces steep learning curve on costs
By Scott Hamilton
June 13, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The current cost to build the new Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan engine is $10m per engine.
Greg Hayes, CEO of United Technologies. Photo: Hartford Courant via Google images.
This has to come down by a factor of five, said Greg Hayes, the CEO of United Technologies, parent of PW.
This also illustrates the learning curve experienced by engine OEMs, a topic frequently discussed by the airframe OEMs but not so much by the engine manufacturers.
Hayes made the remarks at the UTC Media Day in Hartford (CT) last week. UTC is the parent of Pratt & Whitney, United Technologies Aerosystems (UTAS) and other non-aviation companies.
UTAS sees increasing electronic architecture in future airplanes
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Introduction
June 9, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The debate continues whether the next new, clean-sheet airplane will be a Middle of the Market aircraft (MOMA) or replacements for the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families.
Along with he studies of new airplanes are those undertaken by suppliers. Electric Systems, a unit of United Technologies Aerosystems (UTAS), is working with the OEMs to determine what level of electric systems will be used in the new aircraft, whatever is selected to go next.
Summary
- Electric systems on the Boeing 787 are up to 80% more efficient than those on the Boeing 777 Classic.
- The 777X retains the Classic systems or commonality.
- Benefits decline the shorter the flight.
Irkut MC-21 rolls out
June 9, 2016: Irkut rolled out its challenger to the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737-800/8
MC -21 rollout. Photo: AIN Online via Google images.
yesterday the MC-21-300.
The new airplane is powered by either the Pratt & Whitney GTF or a Russian engine. A report from a Russian-sponsored media site is here.
LNC previously published an analysis of the economics of the MC-21 behind our paywall. We’ve opened up the first of four parts to all readers here.
UTC media day 2: GTF hits 99.5% dispatch reliability rates
June 7, 2016: The new Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan, on seven Airbus A320neos,
Bob Leduc, president of Pratt & Whitney.
have achieved more than 2,000 revenue cycles with no returns or rejected take-offs, says Bob Leduc, president of Pratt & Whitney. The engines have a 99.5% dispatch reliability. The last time this level was achieved was with the introduction of the Boeing 777, which at the same point had a 100% dispatch reliability rate.