Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
2020 Outlook for Airbus, Boeing, et al
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Introduction
By the Leeham News team.
Jan. 2, 2020, © Leeham News: This will be a pivotal year for Boeing.
It will be a year of challenges for Airbus.
Embraer Commercial Aviation should disappear.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries faces final decisions for the SpaceJet.
Overhanging international trade is the US presidential election.
These are just some of the headlines to look for in 2020.
Leeham News and Analysis provides its annual outlook as the new year, and the new decade, begins.
Boeing tells union: MAX production halt “weeks;” others see months
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By Scott Hamilton and Byran Corliss
Introduction
Dec. 23, 2019, © Leeham News: The Boeing 737 MAX production shut down will be measured in “weeks,” Boeing told one of its unions.
But “weeks” is a highly open-ended description.
One supplier estimated for LNA that the suspension will be at least 60-90 days.
An aerospace analyst sees the halt lasting 3-6 months at a minimum.
Boeing 737 MAXes stored at Boeing Field. Source: Seattle Times.
LNA’s analysis does not see production resuming before the Federal Aviation Administration notifies Boeing that it has a date certain for recertification. It has announced no timeline, although published reports already suggest this could be any time from mid-February to well into March.
But these are speculative dates.
Summary
- Boeing now says that once certification is achieved, delivering from the inventory is a priority over producing new airplanes.
- This raises additional uncertainty over restarting production.
- Spirit Aerosystems has some 90 fuselages in storage.
Read more
Why did Qantas choose Airbus’ A350-1000 for project Sunrise?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
December 19, 2019, © Leeham News: Qantas Airways declared the Airbus A350-1000 the winner for its project Sunrise last week. After two years of competition with Boeing’s 777-8, it was the preferred aircraft for what many say is the holy grail of airline routes, the Sydney-London route.
Many speculate it’s the delay in the availability of the 777-8 that was the deciding factor. We use our airliner performance model to check if this is true or if there are other factors that turned the A350-1000 the favorite.
A350-1000 chosen for project Sunrise. Source: Qantas.
Summary:
- The A350-1000 is a stretch from the A350-900 while the 777-8 is a shrink from the larger 777-9.
- A derivative based on a stretch is often more efficient than one based on a shrink.
- When Airbus adjusts the Maximum Take-Off Weight and fuel capacity of the A350-1000, it can fly the routes Qantas asks for.
Are AirAsia and AirAsia X outgrowing their key markets?
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By Judson Rollins
Introduction
Dec. 16, 2019, © Leeham News: AirAsia and long-haul sister AirAsia X have been growing at world-leading rates for much of the past two decades. AirAsia’s fleet growth in the 2000s was so rapid that it quickly became a top customer of Airbus’s A320 program; the airline is now second only to India’s IndiGo as an A320neo customer.
However, neither of the airlines nor their joint venture partners across Asia are producing solid financial returns–making it questionable whether they can economically fly all the aircraft they have on order.
Summary
- Mediocre financial results after lease expenses;
- Debt loads are above industry average, especially at AirAsia X;
- One of the world’s largest order books, especially for A320neos;
- Key bases in countries where capacity growth outstrips local economic trends.
Norwegian’s attempt to survive
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Dec. 12, 2019, © Leeham News: Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS), struggling to survive after years of over-expansion, took major steps over the last few weeks to overhaul its finances and strategy.
Major strategic shifts included the sale of the Argentinian subsidiary, the end of trans-Atlantic narrowbody operations, and exit out of long-haul markets in two Scandinavian capitals.
The airline appointed Jacob Shram, a former McKinsey consultant and Statoil executive, as a new CEO. Former JetBlue Chief Commercial Officer Marty St. George is also joining the airline on an interim basis.
After years of breakneck expansion, the airline vowed a shift in focus on profitability and business efficiency. In this article, LNA analyzes the various announcements and assesses whether NAS has a chance to survive in the long term.
Summary
- (Finally) cutting the losses;
- No stones left unturned to raise cash;
- Drastically altered fleet plans;
- Chances of working out.
A tectonic shift towards large narrowbody
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
A321XLR. Source: Airbus.
Dec. 9, 2019, © Leeham News: There are now more firm orders for the Airbus A321neo than all the latest generation widebody programs combined: Airbus A330neo and A350, Boeing 787 and 777X. The largest Airbus narrowbody makes up 44% of all A320neo family orders, compared to 22% for the A320ceo family.
After peaking in 2015, twin-aisle aircraft now represent a smaller portion of all deliveries. Boeing will lower the future Dreamliner production rate from 14 to 12 per month, while Airbus did not proceed with an A350 rate hike.
Being at a later point in the cycle, economic slowdown, and trade tensions explain part of the lower demand for widebody aircraft. However, there are good reasons to believe something more fundamental is at play.
LNA wrote a few months ago that Trans-Atlantic market fragmentation is hurting large widebody sales. This article analyzed the strategic shift occurring at numerous airlines that is hurting all twin-aisle sales, including the smaller A330neo and 787.
Summary
- Late cycle and trade war hurt widebody demand;
- Mitigating operating cost pressures on shorter routes;
- Narrowbody capital efficiency cannibalizes widebody;
- Monitoring the highest traffic growth region;
- Consequences for future programs.
Understanding Rolls-Royce’s financials
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Dec. 2, 2019, © Leeham News: Rolls-Royce continues to be in the spotlight for the Trent 1000 durability issues, with no end in sight. The engine manufacturer recently increased the total disruption cost estimate to £2.4bn.
The engine-related charges and substantial research and development expenditures have raised questions about Rolls-Royce’s fin
ancial health. As of the end of 2018, the company had a net negative £1bn equity on its balance sheet.
However, the company has a market capitalization of around £14bn and holds a credit rating comfortably in Investment Grade territory.
This article analyzes the reasons for the disconnect between the company book value and market capitalization. Accounting differences between the USA’s GAAP and Europe’s IFRS play a significant role.
Rolls-Royce’s strategic choices in the early 2010s will have ramifications for engine development on future commercial aircraft programs.
Summary
- A tumultuous history;
- From cash cow to binge development spending;
- Brexit and IFRS accounting paint bleaker pictures than reality;
- Strategic decision bites back;
- A lifeline and future engine programs.
Converting customers to the FSA
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Nov. 28, 2019, © Leeham News: As Boeing works its way through the 737 MAX crisis, all consideration whether to launch the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA) is on hold.
But the Boeing sales force has been testing the market with a single-aisle concept, the Future Small Airplane (FSA) to replace the MAX.
This highly confidential effort has been underway for months. Some lessors have been approached to swap some MAX orders for the FSA—there was a supply-demand imbalance for lessor-ordered MAXes even before the grounding—and airlines across the globe have been approached to gauge interest.
Summary
- Solving a lessor placement headache;
- Older 737 NG replacement;
- Accommodating airlines that over-ordered;
- Brand new (non) metal for old carriers.
Several aircraft programs beset by engine woes
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By Judson Rollins
Nov. 25, 2019, © Leeham News: Nearly every manufacturer of jet engines is experiencing problems with various models, which is causing delays for several prominent Boeing and Airbus programs. The Airbus A220, A320neo, A330neo and Boeing 787, 777X are all experiencing engine-related setbacks.
Grounded 787s at London Heathrow. Source: Twitter / Alex Macheras.
Summary
- Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan (GTF) operational limitations on A220, A320neo.
- CFM LEAP said to be causing renewed A320neo delivery delays.
- Multiple new airworthiness directives on Trent 1000, 7000.
- GE9x component issues causing delays to first 777X test flight.
Can the DHC 8-400 compete with the CRJ550 for the 50 seat Scope Clause market? Part 2.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
November 21, 2019, © Leeham News: Last week we started our analysis of the De Havilland Canada’s DHC 8-400 as a replacement for US Scope Clause 50 seat jets like the Bombardier CRJ200 or the Embraer ERJ-145.
We compared a newly produced and adapted DHC 8-400 with United’s CRJ-700 conversion to CRJ550, a 50-seater version of the larger jet. After looking at the airplane dimensions and cabin spaces last week we now go deeper into the configuration of the aircraft and their economics.
Summary:
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- The DHC 8-400 is offered as a 50 seater and 65 seater variant to fit the US Scope Clause market.
- The Turboprop has a cost advantage over the jet at the cost of a 20% longer trip time.