Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 18. April 18, 2025
- Natilus: Composite BWB, entry-into-service by 2029, 570 on order April 17, 2025
- China bans Boeing, US parts imports in tariff war April 15, 2025
- Boeing welcomes COMAC competition as Asia-Pacific demand soars April 15, 2025
- How good is the C929? April 14, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: The Middle East Air Traffic Management
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 17 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Having covered the Air Traffic Management challenges that are present in the North American and European airspaces, we will now put the light on another air traffic hot spot, the Middle East.
Figure 1 show that air traffic is more intense over the US and Europe airspaces but that there are main crossroads to Asia and Africa that take their route over the Middle East, and the area has hot spots.
Figure 1. Air traffic’s main routes in the world. Middle East is an area with hot spots. Source: Rockwell Collins
As we have seen, the technical solutions are well on their way to enable the implementation of a modern and efficient Air Traffic Management. Both the US and European air space modernization is hinging on how well the human factors change process can be accomplished (in the US budgets are also a hindrance).
If we add political factors to the jam, we have a good description of the situation in the Middle East. Read more
Pontifications: Derivatives at Boeing
By Scott Hamilton
May 9, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Last week proved to be significant when the CEO of The Boeing Co. and the head of the 737 MAX program each said the company is looking at revising its smallest member of the family, the MAX 7, and potentially enlarging the biggest member, the MAX 9.
Neither prospect was news. Jon Ostrower of The Wall Street Journal revealed the prospect of what he called the MAX 7.5, a slightly larger airplane than the current MAX 7. The idea of an airplane larger than the MAX 9, based on the MAX 9, was floated when Jim McNerney was still CEO.
What was news is that for the first time, the Boeing CEO and the head of the MAX program went on record essentially admitting the MAX line isn’t well positioned against Airbus after all. Or, on the lower end, to Bombardier.
Singapore Air Show pictorial
Feb. 2123, 2016: The Singapore Air Show ended last week with a dearth of news. William Bain, associate professor and co-editor of International Relations, provided LNC with these photos.
Exclusive Interview: Airbus COO Tom Williams about changing times for Airbus.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
13 January 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus COO Tom Williams has a goal of reducing development expenses by 50% and streamlining the production to “best in class.”
Williams is in charge of the areas at Airbus with the greatest headwinds as Airbus goes from a development driven company to a production driven one.
It’s a daunting task to manage development, production and sourcing for a company with a product range where each delivered unit is made up of four million parts. It does not get easier by having to shrink the development activities from 30,000 employees and contractlors to 20,000.
We spoke to Williams about these challenges at the sidelines of Airbus 2016 annual press conference that recapped 2015 orders and deliveries.
Summary:
- Airbus is now changing from a development-driven organisation, constantly creating new products, to a production-oriented organisation.
- The development activities have to be transformed so as to support a company to that does constant improvement and derivatives, not new product lines.
- At the same time, the shareholders are saying it is payoff time. Years of investment shall now be honoured with industry conform return on invested capital. Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Production rates
By Bjorn Fehrm
20 November 2015, ©. Leeham Co: Emirates Airline CEO, Tim Clark, is quoted as having said “it takes them forever to get this thing up.” He was talking about the Airbus A350 production rate and his reasons for delaying Emirates’ decision on what to buy for the airlines medium range needs. Clark said Emirates wants more aircraft in operational use before they can evaluate the operational characteristics of the A350.
Emirates want to see at least 20 aircraft in operation and right now it is about seven to nine that fly every day. Actual deliveries stand at 10 with one month to go before the first anniversary when deliveries started (the first A350-900 was delivered to Qatar Airways on the 22 December 2014).
Looking at how many aircraft that are actually flying, one can agree with him. It seems actual production rate is more like one per month rather than the three to four a month that Airbus talked about at the first delivery ceremony.
So why is this? Is the production of A350 therefore in serious trouble? What is taking them so long? Has Emirates pointed to a weak part of the A350 program?
Emirates’ mid-range choice
By Bjorn Fehrm
Nov. 10 2015, ©. Leeham Co: The Dubai Air Show is on its second day and there are no mega orders. The one that should have been, the mid-range requirement for Emirates Airline, has been postponed, not only to “next year” but for “another year.”
What is the reason? Are we seeing a widebody oversupply fueled by used Boeing 777s/Airbus A330s being available in the market “for very low prices,” as suggested by Delta Air Lines CEO Richard Anderson? Are these the first signs of a damping of an order bonanza which has been going on for five years? Will things be more quiet (or should we say normal) going forward?
We don’t think so. Emirates just want to make the right choice and the equation has got more complicated as it has been working the problem. And it is in no hurry.
Pontifications: Casting eyes toward Dubai Air Show
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 31, 2015, © Leeham Co. September begins tomorrow and we’re only nine weeks away to the 2015 Dubai Air Show.
We’re looking to this event to be the last big opportunity for major airplane orders for this year. While it’s true that Airbus, Boeing and the other 
OEMs make a big year-end push to top off the order book, the Dubai show has become increasingly on a par with the Farnborough and Paris air shows, but focused on wide-body orders and program launches.
Eyes on the Dubai Air Show will be watching for what could be would be this year’s prize catch: whether Emirates Airlines will be ready to place the oft-talked about order for 50-70 Airbus A350-900s or Boeing 787-10s. (Some have floated an even higher number.) The other big item of interest: whether Airbus will launch the A380neo.
Options for Singapore Airlines to operate direct flights to the US.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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July 20, 2015 © Leeham Co. Last week week we wrote about how Singapore Airlines is in talks with Airbus and Boeing to find a suitable solution for its Ultra-Long Haul airplane needs. Now we go deeper into the subject, looking at the background to the need, the aircraft options and their economics.
We also check if the different aircraft options could open the famous Singapore-New York route again, this time with acceptable fuel economics.
Summary:
- We explore SQ’s options for US direct traffic, looking at possible aircraft and their fuel economics.
- The A340-500 flight to New York was stopped because of to high fuel costs. We show what the fuel consumption would have been with the 777-200LR.
- Should Airbus decide to launch the A350-900LR a specially equipped version could re-open the famous route. We show how and with what fuel gains over A340-500 and 777-200LR.
Airbus A380neo not yet a project
Drilling down into the story and checking with Airbus, as well as going back to Bregier interviews at the Paris Air Show and one we did with him at the IATA AGM in early June, it’s clear the Sunday Times was somewhat exuberant in its headline.
Read more
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Posted on July 21, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Dubai Air Show, Emirates Airlines, Leeham News and Comment, Qatar Airways, Rolls-Royce
A380, A380neo, Airbus, Dubai Air Show, Emirates Airline, Fabrice Bregier, Qatar Airways, Rolls-Royce, Rolls-Royce Advance engine