Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
Updated: Porter confirms E195-E2 after persistent denials in May
By Scott Hamilton
July 12, 2021, © Leeham News: Canada’s Porter Airlines today announced an order for 30 Embraer E195-E2s. The move comes shortly after the Canadian government agreed to loan hundreds of millions of dollars to Porter in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Porter ceased operations shortly 
into the start of the pandemic in March 2020. It resumes service in September.
Embraer announced the order, from an unidentified customer, on April 23. Airfinance Journal first reported that the customer was Porter Airlines, which the company denied. LNA confirmed May 19 that the airplanes were going to Porter. Porter declined to directly comment on LNA’s confirmation.
Is the Redhawk Development process the future at Boeing?
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By the Leeham News Team
Boeing wants to converge advanced design and production processes from across the 7-Series platforms and the Defense unit into one commercial airplane–its Next Boeing Airplane, or NBA. Photo: Boeing.
July 12, 2021, © Leeham News: It may be an overstatement to say that Boeing CEO David Calhoun will be the future of Boeing Commercial Airplanes on a radical production makeover.
But it’s not an understatement to say that the production moonshot contemplated is critical to BCA.
However, advanced production processes are only part of the challenge facing Boeing. A radical shift in employee culture is also required for success.
Boeing Defense, Space & Security (BDS) is doing good things with respect to the T-7 Redhawk Trainer Integration. BDS slid the first fuselage together in 30 minutes. But the question before us is this. Is this 30 minute join process a revolutionary process change that Boeing can scale for transport category aircraft, or a byproduct of Great Hardware Variability Control in a simple non-variable end item. Fighter-sized aircraft are simple to build. Highly variable Commercial aircraft are another story completely.
Calhoun, and before him CEOs Dennis Muilenburg and Jim McNerney, would lead you to believe that some new magic occurred in the digital design and that this new magic will transfer to the next Boeing airliner and new engines are not necessary. That’s a bold position to take, so let’s look at what might be involved behind his thinking.
Pontifications: The reshaped commercial aviation sector
By Scott Hamilton
July 12, 2021, © Leeham News: With Washington State and the US open for business following nearly 18 months of COVID-pandemic shut-down, there is a lot of optimism in commercial aviation.
In the US, airline passenger traffic headcounts are matching or exceeding pre-pandemic TSA screening numbers. Airlines are placing orders with Airbus, Boeing and even Embraer in slowly increasing frequency.
The supply chain to these three OEMs looks forward to a return to previous production rates.
It’s great to see and even feel this optimism. But the recovery will nevertheless be a slow if steady incline.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 11. The Program Plan.
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca.
July 9, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Now that we have done the basic market research we should scope the program. To do this we need to understand what aircraft we will develop and to what certification rules.
Our market research tells us to develop a 19 seat aircraft that can operate as a passenger and/or cargo aircraft outside the US and as cargo aircraft in the US. This enables us to certify it to FAA Part 23 and the equivalent rules of other National Aviation Authorities where we want to sell the aircraft.
Figure 1. The new Cessna SkyCourier Cargo/19 seat utility airliner. Source: Cessna.
IATA update on COVID-19 and World Travel
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 8, 2021, © Leeham News: IATA’s half-year Global Media event finished today. The Director General Willy Walsh and SVP Operations Nick Careen briefed on travel trends, ramp-up bottlenecks, and IATA travel pass activities.
At present domestic travel is recovering fast, but international travel remains weak.
The true cost of Electric Aircraft. Part 2.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
July 8, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the cost of running an electric 19 seat airliner based on energy stored in batteries. We found the energy costs were lower than for the equivalent turboprop aircraft, but when we add the maintenance costs for the batteries, the operating costs were higher than today’s 19 seat commuter.
This was under the assumption that the battery aircraft had the same energy consumption as today’s aircraft. We now run this check. The result is eye-opening.
Figure 1. Heart Aerospace ES-19 battery-based airliner. Source: Heart Aerospace.
Summary
- Battery based aircraft weigh significantly more than jet fuel based ones. It increases their energy consumption.
- Last week’s findings were conditioned on the same energy consumption. This week’s analysis proofs this is not a valid assumption.
Here’s why China needs Boeing as much as Boeing needs China
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Now open to all readers.
July 7, 2021, © Leeham News: China’s government policy of operating commercial aircraft that generally are no more than 12-15 years old means the carriers face a replacement bubble that the home market can’t possibly meet.
According to data reviewed by LNA, there are just 303 COMAC C919s on order. Delivery is supposed to begin this year with one airplane. Currently, the peak year for deliveries is 2027 with 55 aircraft scheduled.
There are about 1,116 Boeing 737 NGs built between 2008-2018 operated and stored by Chinese carriers. China has just 296 737 MAXes on order—a deficit of 820 aircraft needed for replacement of these aging airplanes. (Boeing’s website shows just 104 outstanding orders, but Chinese-owned lessors aren’t included in this tally.)
Exclusive: Mitsubishi ponders restarting CRJ production
By Scott Hamilton
July 6, 2021, © Leeham News: Mitsubishi is considering restarting production of the discontinued CRJ, LNA confirmed with multiple sources.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries discontinued production with the completion of the last of the small backlog it acquired with the June 1, 2019, purchase of the program from the ailing Bombardier. The final 15 CRJ900s were completed during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Montreal Mirabel Airport production line was shut down. The tooling was removed and stored. The buildings were turned over to Airbus, which now uses them for A220 production.
Source: Bombardier.
“Our primary focus remains the support of the CRJ operating fleet,” said Ross Mitchell, vice president of Shared Services. “Clearly, the regional jet market is important to us, but we have made no commitment to move forward in this respect.”
Podcast: 10 Minutes About SSTs
Scott Hamilton and Pontifications are taking the day off.
July 5, 2021, © Leeham News: Development of small supersonic transports (SSTs) seemed, for a time, a fad. Three companies announced plans to develop an SST business jet with two of them expanding the concepts to be small passenger airliners, each with less than 100 seats.
Today, only one company appears remaining. Aerion collapsed recently for lack of funding. Boom remains, announcing a “commercial agreement” with United Airlines early this month for 15 Overture SSTs and options for 35 more. The agreement, however, is highly conditional.
LNA discussed the agreement in a previous 10 Minutes About podcast. Today’s 10 Minutes About is a technical discussion about designing an SST.
Asia-Pacific airline recovery held back by slow vaccination, border closures
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By Judson Rollins
Introduction
July 5, 2021, © Leeham News: The passenger air travel recovery from COVID-19 has been wildly uneven, even between neighboring countries. Most countries with large domestic markets have seen dramatic rebounds in passenger volumes, although yields have been held back by a continued slump in long-haul and business travel.
Aircraft parked at Hong Kong International Airport, with construction on a third runway in the background. Source: Bloomberg.
In the Asia-Pacific region, however, even short-haul international traffic has been disrupted by virus outbreaks, a painfully slow vaccine rollout, and a largely stagnant web of border closures.
Summary
- Much of Asia is well behind global average in the vaccine rollout.
- Domestic markets in China, Australia, and New Zealand are performing strongly.
- Border closures continue to cripple international travel.
- Many Asian countries are likely to stay closed well into 2022.
- Most Asian airlines are reporting slow progress toward capacity restoration.