Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 15. The Certification application.
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam and Andrew Telesca.
August 6, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we went through the OTA, Authorization To Offer milestone.
Now we look at another important milestone in the Pre-Launch phase, the design Certification application. It involves some tricky differences in rules and procedures between the primary Certification authorities.
Figure 1. The Program Plan for our Green 19 seater. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see in full scale.
The Airbus A350F versus Boeing’s 777-XF.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 5, 2021, © Leeham News: Two weeks ago we compared the launched Airbus A350 freighter with Boeing’s in-service 777F. We found the 777F is a freighter with a very high payload capability, but it faces an ICAO emission and noise ax by 2028, should the present engines be kept.
Boeing’s CEO David Calhoun recently said a freighter version of the 777X might replace the 777F. With seven years to 2028, a development decision for a 777-XF is then imminent. We use our performance model to look at how an A350F and 777-XF would compare.
Summary
- A new Boeing 777-XF freighter, based on the 777-8 (picture), has to equal or beat an Airbus A350 freighter both on payload and economics.
- Beating an A350F on capacity and payload is straightforward, the 777-8 is the larger aircraft. On operating costs, it’s a tighter race.
Podcast: 10 Minutes About the A350F and the Impact on Boeing
Aug. 3, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus last week launched the A350 freighter program. This is the first real challenge to Boeing’s decades-long dominance in the freighter market that poses a real threat.
LNA wrote on April 6 that Boeing’s dominance was under threat. The A350F makes this a reality, along with the ICAO emission standards that take effect in 2027.
Boeing CEO David Calhoun said last week he’s “confident” the long-delayed 777-XF might be the next program launched.
In today’s 10 Minutes About, we discuss these and other topics.
Boeing’s apparent shifting product strategy
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Aug. 2, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing last week reiterated it believes the 777-9 will be certified and delivered in late 2023. CEO David Calhoun also said, “I’m confident that might be the next of our programs.”
Let’s set aside for the moment whether the EIS prediction becomes reality and assume Boeing will be correct. Let’s assume the 777-XF will be the next program launched. The larger question then becomes, what does this mean for the Next Boeing Airplane (NBA)? And what are the implications for Airbus?
Summary
- The NBA launch seems unlikely in 2022; 2023 may be the target.
- But with the 777-XF moving up in priorities, will the NBA continue to slide to the right?
- What is the Airbus response to an NBA?
- Or, should Airbus move first to further preempt the NBA?
Pontifications: Biden’s new “Buy American” policy may hit Lockheed Martin-Airbus plans to compete in KC-Y tanker bid
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 2, 2021, © Leeham News: A move by the Biden Administration may have unintended consequences in the KC-Y Bridge Tanker procurement by the US Air Force.
The Bridge Tanker is the Air Force’s second round to replace the aging Boeing KC-135 fleet. Between 140-160 airplanes will be purchased under KC-Y. The Air Force awarded a contract to Boeing in the previous KC-X procurement for 179 tankers based on the 767-200ER platform.
President Joe Biden announced last week that the US will adopt a rule under its Buy American policy that American content must be increased from 55% to 60% immediately and ultimately 75%.
If adopted, the rule appears to all but preclude an expected proposal by a partnership between Lockheed Martin and Airbus (LMA) to offer the KC-330 Multi-Role Tanker Transport (MRTT). This is based on the A330-200 platform.
Lockheed Martin did not respond to a request for comment.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 14. The ATO.
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca.
July 30, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we went through the later tasks in the Prelaunch Phase. We talked about Concept refinement, Supplier selection, and Certification work.
Now we dig deeper into the important Authorization To Offer (ATO) milestone. This is where the project starts to promise stuff to customers and others, and it can be both good and bad.
Figure 1. The Program Plan for our Green 19 seater. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see in full scale.
Airbus delivers strong 1H2021 and launches A350 Freighter
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 29, 2020, © Leeham News: Airbus presented its results for the first half of 2021 today. The company reported a profit of €2.7bn on a turnover of €24.6bn, a very strong result from the -€0.9bn of last year. Yesterday, the Airbus board gave the go-ahead for the A350 freighter with planned entry into service 2025.
The strong result came from deliveries of 297 commercial aircraft, 100 more than the 196 of 1H2020. Net orders were 38 aircraft (1H2020 196). Guidance for 2021 was increased to 600 airliner deliveries with operating profit at €4bn and Free Cash Flow of €2bn.
Artist impression of the A350 Freighter. Credit: la-livery.net
HOTR: About those 737 MAXes in inventory….
By the Leeham News staff
July 29, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing said yesterday that it delivered about 130 737 MAXes since the recertification of the aircraft last November.
It won’t reveal exactly how many came from the inventory of nearly 450 airplanes that were produced but which went straight into storage during the grounding.
Filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission paint a misleading picture.
At December 31, Boeing reported that there were about 425 MAXes in inventory. At March 31, this figure was 400. On June 30, the number was 390. The aggregate reduction is 60, suggesting 70 deliveries were new production airplanes.
Not so, as it turns out.
A history of jet freighter aircraft
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
A Cathay Pacific 747-8F
July 29, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, LNA compared the performance of the 777F against the A350F, launched today. As a follow-up, we thought it relevant to look at the history of freighter aircraft derived from passenger jets at the major OEMs.
Shortly after the dawn of the jet age, Boeing and McDonnell Douglas started selling freighter variants of their 707 and DC-8, respectively. Most aircraft families developed later at both OEMs would receive a freighter variant in one form or another.
We will stick for our analysis to Freighter aircraft delivered off the assembly line at the world’s Western OEMs: Airbus, Boeing, Lockheed, and McDonnell Douglas.
Summary
- What is a Freighter aircraft?
- A minor but worthwhile market after initial euphoria;
- Single-aisle against twin-aisle;
- A Queen of the Freighters;
- An OEM’s fortress is another’s weakness.
(Updated with CEO comments) Boeing ekes out profits in 2Q, 1H; BCA continues loss
July 28, 2021, © Leeham News: The Boeing Co. today reported a slim profit for the second quarter and first half of 2021. But Boeing Commercial Airplanes still is in a loss-making position, though considerable progress was made in reversing losses for the past two years.
Boeing did not take a forward loss on the 787 program, as feared in some quarters (but not LNA). Due to halting deliveries because of a production issue, Boeing lowered the production rate below 5/mo, to an unannounced figure, leading some to speculate the company would take a forward loss today.
LNA learned the rate might go as low as 2/mo for some weeks.
The press release is here. Boeing’s earnings call will be at 10:30 AM EDT. The webcast may be heard here. The earnings call presentation is here.