Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 29. Finishing Flight tests
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca.
November 12, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we looked at our role in creating comprehensive crew training so the aircraft can be safely operated during its lifetime.
With maintenance and crew training docs and curriculums well underway we can return to our Flight tests and describe how we finish up the testing and get our Type Certificate.
Figure 1. The Type Certificate for the Part 23 Beech, now Textron, King Air series. Source: FAA.
Airbus details A350F specifications
By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
November 11, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus has given more information about what led to their new freighter, the A350F, and its data. Scott Hamilton talked to Airbus Chief Commercial Officer Christian Scherer at the IATA AGM on Oct. 3-5 in Boston, and Bjorn Fehrm spoke to Head of Freighter marketing, Crawford Hamilton, about the technical details. (The two Hamiltons are not related.)
The A350F is the most capable new-build freighter Airbus has designed, posing the most serious threat to Boeing’s dominance of jet freighters since the dawn of the jet age. Some expect Boeing to respond next week with a program launch of the 777XF, but LNA understands this won’t be the case.
“The market has asked us to produce it,” said Scherer of the A350F. “So we launched the program based on our own belief of the strength of the business case.”
“The A350F beats the competing production freighter (Boeing’s 777F, our note) on payload, volume, and economics,” says Crawford Hamilton. “We have taken extra care to make the door larger and the floor extra sturdy to ease loading planning and execution. The A350F will be the freight forwarder’s preferred machine.”
The Airbus new freighter, the A350F. Source: Airbus.
Single aisle or Widebody over the Atlantic at low load factors, Part 3?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
November 11, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, we compared the economics of an Airbus A321XLR and A330-200 on our thin route over the Atlantic. The XLR improves the capabilities of the A321 quite a bit, not only on range but also on load-carrying ability.
The more efficient use of the space below the floor leaves room for cargo once the passenger bags are loaded. The margin race between the A321XLR and the A330-200 depended on the cargo pricing in the end. Now we finish the series with a more challenging setup for the twin-aisle.
We assume we use an A330-900, a nominal 300 seater on the Dublin to Newark route with only 130 passengers per departure. The load factor is then at 43%. Can the twin-aisle still earn the margin of an A321XLR on this route by virtue of its cargo capacity?
Summary
- The margin generation of the A321XLR versus the A330-200 was close. It boiled down to cargo pricing.
- The A330-900 adds costs but also more cargo room. Will it cover the extra costs?
Air Asia asks Airbus for A321F; chief commercial officer says not yet
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By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 8, 2021, © Leeham News: Air Asia is in talks with Airbus to develop a factory-built A321F, according to a report last week from Reuters. LNA first reported in August that Airbus is pondering a new-build A321F.
Airbus A321 P2F: could a new-production A321F be coming? Photo credit: Airbus.
“AirAsia would seek to convert a “meaningful chunk” of its 362 orders for the passenger version of the A321neo narrowbody to a dedicated freighter, said Pete Chareonwongsak, CEO of AirAsia logistics division Teleport,” Reuters wrote.
But although Airbus has had talks with a few customers, an A321F is not a priority, the firm’s chief commercial officer told LNA last month.
Pontifications: As customers wait for 787s, some rethink 777-300ERs
Nov. 8, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing now has passed one year since deliveries were suspended for the 787. There were 105 787s in inventory at Sept. 30. The current build rate is 2/mo.
By Scott Hamilton
LNA identified 93 787s that were ordered in 2020 and 2021 that are believed to be parked, leaving 12 unaccounted for.
Among the aircraft in inventory are:
- 11 787-8s destined for American Airlines, which are owned by Boeing Capital Corp.
- 3 for BOC Aviation, which do not have identified customers.
- 9 for Chinese airlines.
- 8 for the always cranky Qatar Airways.
LNA understands that several customers are now looking for substitutions in the Boeing 777-300ER fleet owned by lessors. Of the 116 -300ERs in storage, 60 are owned by lessors. Nearly all are leased to airlines that put the aircraft in storage. But there are some off-lease. The latter includes seven owned by GECAS (now AerCap), which are destined for conversion to freighters via IAI Bedek.
Embraer 3rd Quarter 2021 results
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 5, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Embraer presented its 3Q2021 results today. The results were better than expected as the company has tight control over its spending and managed to deliver nine E-jets and 21 Business jets in the quarter, giving a revenue increase over 3Q last year of 26%.
Sales were also positive and the backlog has grown from $15.9bn last quarter to $16.8bn. Profits before tax were $30m from a loss of $37m a year ago. The strong results had the company upgrade its guidance for 2021.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 28. Crew training
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca
November 5, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we looked at our role in creating a competent maintenance activity so our aircraft can be kept airworthy throughout its operational life. The other important part of operational safety is crew training.
We learned that these two parts, keeping the aircraft airworthy with its maintenance and providing adequate training and information to the crews operating the airplane, have a major influence on flight safety. In fact, FAA has found that these parts have a larger influence on flight safety than the aircraft certification regulations.
We, as the OEM, must therefore develop the documentation, curriculum, and training tools so that crews working in the aircraft can fly it safely. This encompasses not only initial training but a continued refresh and check training throughout the crew’s life with the aircraft.
Figure 1. Air Training Supporot’s simulator for the 19 seat Beech 1900. Source: A.T.S.
Jean Pierson, key figure in early Airbus, dies at 80
Nov. 4, 2021: Reuters reports that Jean Pierson, a key figure in the early decades of Airbus, died overnight in France.
Jean Pierson. Photo credit: Airbus.
Single aisle or Widebody over the Atlantic on thin routes? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
November 4, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, we compared the economics of an Airbus A321LR and A330-200 on a thin route over the Atlantic. We found the Widebody could compensate for its higher operating costs as long as the route has a sizable cargo stream and that this is paid at today’s elevated air freight prices. The A321LR has extra center tanks that take away all cargo space and thus has negligible cargo revenue.
Now we repeat the analysis with the more capable A321XLR. It stores four ACTs worth of extra fuel in the space of two. This leaves room for cargo. Will it be enough to restore the supremacy in margin generation over the twin-aisle?
Rendering of the A321XLR. Source: Airbus.
Summary
- The check last week surprised with how close a mid-age A330-200 can come in margin generation to an A321LR on a thin route, thanks to its higher cargo revenue.
- The A321XLR, with its more efficient tank setup, rebalances the fight in favor of the single-aisle.