Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Southwest accelerates 737-700 retirements
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Introduction
April 30, 2018, © Leeham News: Southwest Airlines announced orders 80 Boeing 737-8s so far this year and market intelligence indicates the carrier may be far from done.
Another 60 orders may come during the year, though this trend could slow, market intelligence indicates.
The carrier is accelerating fleet retirements of its Boeing 737-700s with the orders. The latest round last week now makes Southwest the largest single customer for the MAX.
Significantly, the orders represent an up-gauging to the 8 MAX from the -700. The similarly-sized, slow-selling 737-7 MAX, of which Southwest is one of only four identified customers, is being bypassed. Southwest previously deferred delivery of 23 7 MAXes four years.
Click on image to enlarge.
Southwest historically operated its 737s for at least 25 years. Some 737-300s were 28 years old by the time they were retired and stored, according to the Airfinance Journal Fleet Tracker.
Summary
- Strong economic business case cited to retire 737-700s.
- 40 737-700s to be retired with concurrent deliveries.
- Retirements occurring at earlier age.
- Aging aircraft issues exist.
Pontifications: Fine balance needed by Boeing in aftermarket services drive
By Scott Hamilton
April 30, 2018, © Leeham News: The Wall Street Journal Friday reported Boeing was poised to purchase a supplier; a deal could be announced as early as today.
The acquisition, if it happens, will be a major step toward increasing the business at Boeing Global Services (BGS).
It will be another step in the vertical integration that recommenced under Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg, an outgrowth of too much outsourcing with the 787.
Coincidentally, the day before, Wendi Folkert, director for Supply Chain Propulsion Strategy for The Boeing Co., acknowledged that the growing BGS has to balance against competing with Boeing’s own suppliers.
Folkert made her remarks at the I-90 Aerospace Corridor Conference in Spokane (WA).
Phil Krull of Embraer Executive Jets will present at the Southeast Aerospace and Defence Conference in Mobile (AL) in June. Airbus, NASA, Pratt & Whitney, Bombardier, Southeastern state governments and suppliers will also present.Go here for Agenda and Registration information.
32 Boeing 787s are AOG due to Rolls-Royce Trent issues; number will climb
April 27, 2018 © Leeham Co.: There are 32 Boeing 787s grounded because of problems with the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000-C engines and the number will rise “a bit,” LNC has confirmed.
The US Federal Aviation Administration and Europe’s EASA this month issued Airworthiness Directives that limit ETOPS to 140 or even 60 minutes from the 330 minutes certified originally.
A Royal Brunei Boeing 787 sat engineless April 12 at Paine Field, awaiting Rolls-Royce powerplants. Photo by Jennifer Schuld.
Following the AD and inspections, the number of grounded aircraft rose from 15-20.
The limitations balloon costs on trans-ocean flights and render trans-polar flights impossible.
Engine deliveries affects Airbus 1Q2018 results
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 27, 2018, ©. Leeham News: Airbus Group presented its 1Q2018 results this morning. It’s heavily influenced by A320neo engine delivery delays.
Only 30 A320neos were delivered during Q1 out of a year total of 400. This has left Airbus with 60 A320neo gliders parked at Toulouse and Hamburg, waiting for engines.
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Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft stability, Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 27, 2018, ©. Leeham News: In the last Corner we discussed the problems with the long term stability of an aircraft. The aircraft deviates gradually in pitch, roll and in a combined yaw and roll mode if left without pilot input.
To hand fly such an aircraft on long routes is tiresome (been there, done that). For these occasions, one needs an assistant, an autopilot.
Figure 1. Simple one-axis autopilot for small aircraft. Source: Genesys S-TEC.
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Suppliers confirm Airbus, Boeing rate hike studies to 70/mo for single-aisles
April 26, 2018, © Leeham News: Two suppliers publicly confirmed what’s been whispered for months: 
Airbus and Boeing are checking with the supply chain about taking production rates of the A320 and 737 families to 70/mo.
Representatives of Crane Aerospace and Esterline confirmed the studies at the I-90 Aerospace Corridor conference today in Spokane (WA).
Airbus’ Ultra Long Range A350 starts flight test
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 26, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus Ultra Long-Range version of the A350-900 took off for the first time Monday. The aircraft will conduct a short flight test program before being painted in Singapore Airlines’ colours and handed over after the summer.
Airbus touts the A350-900URL as an aircraft which can fly ultra-long routes with flight times up to 20 hours and distances of 9,700nm. So, what so different with this aircraft to the normal A350-900? We use our performance model to show where the differences are.
Summary:
- The A350-900URL has got a higher fuel capacity to extend its range when used as an Ultra Long Range aircraft when loaded with fewer than 250 passengers.
- At the passenger counts where Singapore Airlines will operate the aircraft, the additional range is about 1,000nm.
- For normal operations, there would be no gains.
Boeing to hike 767F production; may be only first of several
April 25, 2018, © Leeham News: Buried deep within Boeing’s first quarter earnings report is a single, seemingly innocuous sentence:
“Reflecting the strength of the cargo market, we now plan to increase the production rate on the 767 program from 2.5 to 3 per month beginning in 2020.”
There is more to this than meets the eye. It portends potentially big orders and this rate increase may be only the first to come.
Boeing 1Q earnings: cash flow, EPS guidance raised on strong results
April 25, 2018: Boeing today said its strong first quarter financial results means it has boosted cash flow and earnings per share guidance.
From its press release:
Is Long-Haul LCC viable? Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 24, 2018, © Leeham News: In the third article about Long-Haul LCC and if it’s a viable business, we described the operational costs for typical aircraft used by a Long-Haul LCC.
We now look at the revenue side of the equation, including how much revenue we need to cover our costs and what variations we have over the year.
