Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- GE testing of giant GE9X engine aims for maturity at entry into service June 30, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 28. June 27, 2025
- Parent agency, FAA often at odds as politics outweighs safety June 26, 2025
- Electric Flight and the Ugly Duckling June 25, 2025
- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
The Boom SST engine problem, Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
December 15, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In our article series around the engine for a Boom SST, we established the thrust requirements for the engines in Part 3.
To fulfill these requirements, we have now designed four different engines. Three are of the type that Boom says it is considering, an engine that is based on an existing core.
Figure 1. Boom Technologies Boom Mach 2.2 45 seat airliner. Source: Boom.
We based these around a military core with the right characteristics for a low-to-medium bypass SST engine. The fourth engine is a custom-designed straight turbojet, very similar to the engine that propelled the only operational SST, the Concorde.
We will use the reference turbojet to understand the difference to a turbofan in this application and why the selection of an engine for a SST follows different rules than for a normal airliner.
Summary:
- Supersonic flight requires engines with low frontal areas and low mass flows.
- Should the engine be designed as for a normal airliner, the inlet drag would be prohibitive.
- The engine also must have a low pressure ratio core; otherwise the energy of the fuel is wasted on non-productive work.
Boeing cuts 777 production rate again
Dec. 13, 2016: Boeing yesterday announced another production rate cut for the 777 Classic, effective next August.
Boeing 777 production rates will decline to 5/mo in August 2017. The delivery rate will fall to 3.5/mo. Photo via Google images.
The rate goes to 5/mo. Because of the transition to the 777X, the actual delivery rate will be 3.5/mo.
Leeham Co. was the first in March 2014 to identify a major production gap and predict rates would have to come down significantly from the then-current 8.3/mo. Aerospace analysts on Wall Street began recognizing the gap shortly after.
Boeing faces prospect of China’s political wrath thanks to Trump
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Introduction
Dec. 12, 2016, © Leeham Co.: “China Inc.,” the combined group of airlines and lessors directed or controlled by the government, is Boeing’s largest customer, an
China is Boeing largest single customer. Campaign rhetoric of Donald Trump could prompt the Chinese government to retaliate against Boeing, favoring Airbus for orders instead. Rendering via Google images.
analysis of the company’s’ backlog at Dec. 5 shows.
Boeing’s website lists “China” with 292 orders in backlog. Fifty of these appear to by Unidentified orders. LNC arrived at this figure by viewing the Chinese customers in Boeing’s identified list, which amounts to 242 orders. Some believe the number of Unidentifieds attributable to China may be higher.
The data shows just how much Boeing has at risk with the so-far unpredictable foreign trade policy espoused by President-Elect Donald J. Trump.
Summary
- Boeing’s long history of supplying airliners to China began with President Nixon’s historic trip.
- China was a reliable customer through global economic downturns.
- But China doesn’t hesitate to use Boeing (or Airbus) as a pawn in geopolitical politics.
- Airbus now at parity in China airplane sales.
- Can Jim McNerney educate Trump?
Pontifications: More job cuts coming at Airbus, Boeing
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 12, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Airbus and Boeing continue to cut costs with internal reorganizations.
These are needed efforts. And they trickle down to the supply chain.
The new CEO at Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Kevin McAllister, is expected to ratchet up the cost-cutting at BCA, in part because he comes from the cost-cutting environment of GE Aviation.
He’s got a lot of work to do.
It takes Airbus Commercial about 85 employees to produce one airplane. It takes Boeing about 107.
Iran, Boeing reach agreement on big aircraft order; Trump casts cloud
No 747s are included in the final deal between Boeing and Iran. The original announcement included four 747-8s to replace aging 747s. Photo via Google images.
Dec. 11, 2016: Iran and Boeing reached an agreement on the 80-airplane order that includes 50 737 MAX 8s, 15 777-300ERs and 15 777-9s.
The final contract still has unspecified contingencies before it can be booked as firm orders, Boeing said. One of those contingencies is clearly President-Elect Donald Trump, who criticized the larger Iran-US-allies deal of which the Boeing order is a part.
Airbus has 116 orders pending that could also be upended if Trump, upon taking office, vitiates the deal.
Boeing’s mix of aircraft changed slightly from the original news in June. The original mix included 40 737 MAXes and six 737NGs. Also included then were four 747-8s.
Comparing A350s, 787s and A380s
Editor’s note: We don’t typically do “trip reports;” this isn’t the scope of LNC. But occasionally one crosses our desk that we find of interest. One of our readers, William Bain, provided the following to us and we thought it interesting to share.
By William Bain
Singapore Airlines Airbus A350 business class. Photo by William Bain.
I flew Singapore Airlines’ Airbus A350 service from Singapore to Amsterdam. The outbound flight was operated by 9V SMD and the inbound flight by 9V SME. I was seated in the premium economy cabin.
By way of starting, I think people spend too much time say this or that model is better, as such, than that model. There’s been a fair bit of that in relation to the A350 and Boeing 787. But in my view much, if not most, of the comfort factor is down to the configuration used by specific airlines. For example, I was underwhelmed by the Qatar Airways 787 but very much liked the ANA 787.
Bjorn’s Corner; Turbofan engine challenges; Part 6
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 08, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: We have now come to the turbine in our trip through a modern turbofan. The turbines make up the rear of the engine, before the propelling nozzle.
The turbines are the workhorses in the engine. They take the energy released by the fuel in the combustion chamber and convert it to shaft hp to drive the fan or compressors.
Figure 1. GasTurb principal representation of a three-shaft turbofan like our reference Rolls-Royce Trent XWB. Source: GasTurb.
The hotter they can operate, the better. They can then generate more hp on a smaller size turbine. The temperature of the gas entering the high pressure compressor is one of the key parameters of a gas turbine. It dictates the power efficiency of the core and how much work it can perform to drive the fan and the compressors. Read more
The Boom SST engine problem, Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
December 08, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Boom Technology and Virgin Atlantic plan to offer supersonic business class passenger traffic over the Atlantic. We covered the type of challenges that this poses in previous articles. The most difficult challenge is finding a suitable engine.
Figure 1. Boom Technologies Boom Mach 2.2 airliner with 45 seater. Source: Boom.
We described what type of engine will be required in Part 2 of the series. We will now investigate what thrust this engine must deliver at different parts of the flight envelope.
How “draggy” is supersonic flight? Why did Concorde and the Tu-144 need afterburners for the acceleration to cruise speed?
Summary:
- Supersonic drag forces slender aircraft designs to minimize supersonic drag.
- An SST needs to use a special climb technique to hold this and other drag factors low.
- Passing the sound barrier and supersonic climb is demanding flight phases
- Can a non-afterburning turbofan operate efficiently to master these phases and combat the supersonic drag?
Pontifications: Making sense of WTO Boeing subsidy case
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 5, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Far be it from me to say, I told you so.
But I did.
When Washington State extended the Boeing 787 tax breaks in November 2013 to the 777X through 2040, I wrote and told everyone who would listen (and even those who wouldn’t) that the 787 tax breaks had been found illegal. So extending them was extending illegal tax breaks.
Norwegian, others have vision; US airlines don’t
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Introduction
Dec. 5, 2016, © Leeham Co. Last weeks’ approval by the US Department of Transportation of a license for Norwegian Air Shuttle to operate long-haul, low-cost service to and from the US drew immediate fire from labor unions over anticipated US job losses.
Iceland’s Loftleider Airlines, one of the first trans-Atlantic low-cost carriers. Photo via Google images.
But their view is too narrow.
It means more jobs for Boeing and its supply chain, which are also heavily unionized. It means benefits to US exports.
But overlooked is the next evolution in long haul travel that starts next year.
Summary
Read more
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Posted on December 5, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
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