Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
11th 737 MAX on the assembly line as Boeing gears up for delivery next year
Oct. 11, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The 11th 737-8 MAX is already on the Boeing production line at the factory in Renton (WA).
Southwest Airlines will receive the first 737 MAX next year. Boeing photo.
This one is for Lion Air, the Indonesian Low Cost Carrier that’s ordered 201 of the airplanes.
Previous 737-8s that already are built are also for LCCs Southwest Airlines of the USA.
The initial line up of customers scheduled to receive the MAXes next year is in stark contrast to decades ago when the names on the sides of the airplanes would be American, United, Lufthansa or Japan Air Lines. It’s illustrative to the changing airline industry.
Airline assets and lessor assets: Bombardier and Embraer
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Part 2. Part 1 may be found here.
Introduction
Bombardier invented the regional jet. Despite some sales these days, the CRJ was eclipsed by the Embraer J-Jet. Bombardier photo.
Oct. 10, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Regional aircraft are much riskier assets for lessors than mainline aircraft.
Until recently, Bombardier and Embraer were the only two regional jet Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs).
Today, the Sukhoi SSJ100 and the Mitsubishi MRJ90 join BBD and EMB in this arena.
Summary
- Bombardier’s regional jets CRJ series enjoyed a good life with airlines and lessors, but fell into disfavor as fuel prices spiked.
- BBD’s CSeries was ordered by four lessors, but two of them have question marks.
- Embraer’s E-Jet found good homes with lessors, but some worry about supply-and-demand in the secondary market.
Looking under the hood at the Qatar order
Oct. 10, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Qatar Airways announced an expected order Friday for Boeing 777s and 787s, but surprised with the addition of a Letter of Intent for up to 60 Boeing 737-8s.
The latter was characterized as a “blow” to Airbus, which has been the target of high profile, public attacks by Qatar’s CEO, Akbar Al-Baker, over issues related to the
Akbar Al-Baker, CEO of Qatar Airways. Photo via Google images.
A320neo and A350-900. Qatar is a launch customer for each, and each has been delayed due to supplier issues from Pratt & Whitney and Zodiac, respectively.
What Al-Baker expects Airbus to do about PW and Zodiac has never been made clear, but it’s the Airbus name on the airplane, so it’s Airbus that is the target of Al-Baker’s well-known wrath.
Al-Baker refused delivery of the first couple of A320neos due to the engine issues and threatened to turn to the Boeing 737 MAX in retaliation.
The announcement Friday was viewed by some media and aerospace analysts as following through on that threat and delivering a “blow” to Airbus.
But an LOI is the lowest form of a “commitment” to an airplane and one that doesn’t typically even involve deposits.
Let’s look at Friday’s announcement in detail.
Pontifications: Airbus, Boeing and Qatar; and more on the WTO
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 10, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Last week ended with an order from Qatar Airways for 30 Boeing 787-9s and 10 777-300ERs. Qatar also signed a letter of intent (LOI) for 60 737-8 MAXes.
But that wasn’t the only news in what turned out to be a busy week.
The British American Business Council Pacific Northwest chapter’s annual conference was Tuesday. Airbus Americas president Barry Eccleston discussed the company’s reorganization and recent WTO loss in an exclusive interview with LNC. This was initially behind our paywall; we’ve now opened it to all readers.
He also discussed product development. This post is coming later this week.
Consultant Michel Merluzeau provided his forecast for the next 15 years at the same event.
The Aerospace Futures Alliance held its annual conference two days later. Boeing’s Mike Sinnett, VP of Product Development, gave a rare look into Boeing’s future product thinking. This post is also coming later this week.
Also on Friday, I toured the Boeing 737 factory in Renton with a group of suppliers. I’ll shortly be writing about this as well.
Let’s visit the Qatar order and the WTO issue.
Bjorn’s Corner: The Chinese aircraft engine industry
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 07, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In our Corners on East bloc aeronautical industries, we will now look at the Chinese civil aircraft engine industry.
The Chinese engine industry is closely modeled after the Chinese aircraft industry that we looked at last week. It is organized as divisions and later subsidiaries to the major aircraft companies. Contrary to the Chinese aircraft industry, it has had major problems in gaining the necessary know-how to start developing and producing its own designs.
The industry has built Soviet designs on license since the 1950s and only recently managed to present functional own designs, after many failures.
Airbus’ Eccleston talks about reorganization and WTO
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Introduction
Oct. 6, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Airbus’ reorganization continues to unfold, with key components to be revealed, including key personnel appointments.
LNC sat down in Seattle with Barry Eccleston, president of Airbus Americas, at the conference Tuesday organized by the British American Business Council Pacific Northwest to talk about the moves. We also discussed the recent decision by the World Trade Organization (WTO) upholding an appeal by the US Trade Representative (USTR) in the 12-year old illegal subsidy cases between the US and European Union over government aid to Airbus and Boeing.
A decision on the EU appeal against the US and Boeing is expected to be issued after the first of the year.
Summary
- Reorganization eliminations duplications.
- Desire is to become more agile, flexible and competitive.
- No comment on whether the EU will appeal the WTO decision handed down last month.
- Two cases against Boeing (the US and Washington State) will see decisions next year.
Air Berlin, Europe’s ninth carrier, announces serious makeover
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 06, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Air Berlin, Germany’s second airline and Europe’s ninth largest carrier by passengers carried, announced that it will wet-lease 40 aircraft to Lufthansa together with many European routes, concentrate all tourist operations into a new business unit before spinning it off and that it will reduce staff further.
Figure 1. Air Berlin will focus on its long haul network. Source; Air Berlin.
This comes after combined losses of €1.7bn since 2010. Several restructuring programs have not stemmed the losses. Last year they rose to €0.45bn and they have continued on in 2016. Read more
Looking 15 years ahead for Airbus, Boeing
Oct. 5, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The next 15 years won’t bring any relief to crowded airports and airplanes but nevertheless there are warning signs for the likes of Airbus, Boeing and the supply chain.
Michel Merluzeau
Looking ahead to 2030 will see aircraft production peaking early in the next decade but begin to fall off or the Big Two Original Equipment Manufacturers as new entrants begin to be felt, predicts Michel Merluzeau, an independent consultant.
Merluzeau presented his forecast yesterday to the British American Business Council Pacific Northwest chapter’s annual one-day conference in Seattle.
“I’m pretty comfortable about the next five years. I’m comfortable in the next five years. The five years after that,” Merluzeau said his confidence level declines because there are so many variables, ranging from issues within the industry to large ones outside it.
Ford Tri Motor: flying in history
1929 Ford Tri Motor NC9645. Photo by Scott Hamilton.
Oct. 4, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The Ford Tri Motor waddled up to the private air terminal in Aurora (OR) Sunday, with a three Pratt & Whitney radial engines running smoothly until shut down. Then the No. 3 engine backfired several times, spitting flames from the exhaust stacks.
This was its introduction of the ancient airplane to a score of people who waited more than an hour for rain to stop and the ceiling to rise to about 2,000 ft so short, 15 minute rides could begin.
With taxi in-and-out, the entire experience would last all of 30 minutes, not long for the $70 fee. But then, how many times does the opportunity to ride on one of aviation history’s most iconic airplanes arise?
Management buys company, Altavair emerges
Oct. 4, 2016: Shifting in the aircraft leasing business continues. Guggenheim Aviation partners (GAP) has been purchased by GAP’s management, ending a relationship with the giant Guggenheim investment group that began as a joint venture in 2003.
In recent years, mega-lessor ILFC was acquired by AerCap; the Royal Bank of Scotland sold its leasing unit to a Japanese company to form SMBC Aviation Capital; Avolon, an Irish company, was purchased by China’s HNA Group which also may purchase CTI’s leasing arm, just to name.
GAP’s new name is Altavair AirFinance. There are more than 50 aircraft in the portfolio, mostly wide-bodies concentrated around the Airbus A330 and Boeing 777. There are also a number of narrow-bodies.