MH370: Caution, no quick resolution

July 29, 2015: By now the world knows a piece of an airplane wing consistent with a Boeing 777 has been found on an island near Africa, thousands of miles from the search areas of the West Coast of Australia.

As this is written, while news reports indicate Boeing says that from photos the part appears consistent with a 777 wing part (and, of course, Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is the only missing 777), confirmation hasn’t been achieved.

Even if this part proves to be from the missing 777, don’t expect any resolution soon.

Computers may be able to calculate ocean currents, time and distances to trace back a reasonable point of origin–if possible, this will take time–and then deep sea searching must start all over again.

Caution should be exercised over this discovery. No quick resolution is going to be forthcoming if this part is from the missing airliner.

This mystery is far from over.

Spirit Aerosystems: Higher profits on lower revenue

July 29, 2015: Spirit Aerosystems, whose principal business is a major OEM supplier to Boeing but which also makes fuselage panels for the Airbus A350, reported lower revenues but higher profits for the FY2Q2015.

The press release is here.

Revenues were down because the company sold its Gulfstream wing sector and lower revenues were recognized from the Boeing 787 program.

“Preparing for aircraft rate increases is a key focus for us this year. Near term, we are capitalizing to increase the production rate of the 787 to 12 shipsets per month and the 737 to 47 shipsets per month, as well as the higher production rates on the A320 and A350 programs,” said Larry Lawson, CEO.

Wells Fargo has this initial reaction:

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Triumph Group disappoints, cites decreased aircraft production

July 29, 2015: Triumph Group reported lower FY1Q2016 earnings below analyst expectations, citing in part decreased production of the commercial Airbus A330 program as well as lower production of the Gulfstream G450/550 and Boeing C-17 and 747-8 airplanes. It’s previously taken large write-offs of the Boeing 747-8 program on its poor sales.

Triumph said in its press release:

The Aerostructures segment reported net sales of $611.8 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2016 compared to $612.2 million in the prior fiscal year period. Organic sales for the quarter declined fourteen percent primarily due to decreased production on the C-17, 747-8, A330 and G450/G550 programs. Operating income for the first quarter of fiscal year 2016 was $66.0 million, compared to operating income of $68.8 million for the prior year period and included $1.9 million of pre-tax costs related to initial facility consolidation actions. The segment’s operating results for the quarter included a net favorable cumulative catch-up adjustment on long-term contracts of $1.3 million. The segment’s operating margin for the quarter was eleven percent. Excluding the 747-8 program, the segment’s operating margin for the quarter was thirteen percent.

Triumph’s Top 10 programs are mostly Airbus and Boeing commercial airplanes. Boeing makes up more than 10% of Triumph’s 1Q revenue. The earnings call presentation is here. Slide 15 outlines the Top 10 programs.

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Follow the suppliers

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Introduction

July 28, 2015: © Leeham Co. Trying to decipher what the airframe Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are going to do is a sporty game that is often analogous to Kremlin watching, especially when it comes to Airbus and Boeing.

The OEMs are naturally circumspect about most everything they do: product development, aircraft pricing, sales campaigns, etc.

They also often are like lawyers when it comes to promoting their products in the public domain: cherry-pick the data that supports your product and which puts your competitor’s product in the worst possible light.

Aerospace analysts, consultants and media (as well as the enthusiast) look anywhere and everywhere for information to discern what the OEMs are up to or how the airplanes are performing or whatever the soup de jour is.

There is more information in the public domain than you would think.

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Rockwell Collins sector sales below expectations because Boeing 787 doing so well

June 28, 2015: Rockwell Collins, a major supplier of aircraft systems, said in its FY3Q2015 earnings call Friday that aftermarket parts and provisioning sales were below expectations in part because the Boeing 787 and the Rockwell parts are proving so reliable in service.

Fewer airlines introduced the 787 into service in the third quarter, also driving down provisioning, Rockwell said.

Although Rockwell’s emphasis was on its own products, the news from a third party such as Rockwell must be sweet music to Boeing’s ears after all the program difficulties and a three-and-a-half month grounding of the 50 787s then in service beginning in January 2013 after two battery fire and smoke incidents. It is, after all, Boeing’s name on the side of the airplane, not Rockwell’s. There are now about 300 787s in service.

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Options for Singapore Airlines to operate direct flights to the US, part 3.

By Bjorn Fehrm

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July 22, 2015 © Leeham Co. We will now finish our series around Singapore Airlines (SQ) need for an Ultra Long Haul (ULH) airliner by looking at what would be the technology and performance of the A350R that Airbus talked about as a possible future model at the launch of A350XWB in 2007.

The A350R as presented was quite different to the A350-900LR that we presented in the first analysis articles. Whereas the A350-900LR is essentially a new Weight Variant (VW) the A350R was an aircraft combining the wing, engines and main landing gear from A350-1000 with the fuselage of A350-900 to create an Ultra Long Haul aircraft (and a freighter variant).

Such an A350 variant could be an interesting aircraft for Singapore or other airlines with a need for a ULH aircraft. We will use our proprietary aircraft model to create the A350R and check its performance against the A350-900LR and Boeing’s 777-8X. This will give an understanding if it could be worth the development effort for Airbus.

Summary:

  • A350R would have very high range and payload weight performance.
  • It would be a true ULH aircraft with which Airbus could pick a fight with Boeing’s 777-8X on the routes that requires an ULH.
  • Its capacity would be volume constrained on a lower level than the 777-8X with better economics per seat and aircraft mile.
  • The question remains, given its lower seat count, would it find a market besides the -8X?

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Pontifications: Steady as she goes at Boeing–for now

By Scott Hamiltn

By Scott Hamilton

July 27, 2015, © Leeham Co. Dennis Muilenburg, who became the chief executive officer at The Boeing Co. the Tuesday after the Paris Air Show ended (and at which Jim McNerney was front-and-center in his role as CEO), was on the company earnings call for the first time in this role last Wednesday.

If anyone was expecting, or hoping for, dramatic announcements or policy changes, they were disappointed.

With this Muilenburg’s first earning call, it was McNerney’s last. Predictably, it was a love fest between the out-going and the incoming. Muilenburg and McNerney swooned over how well they worked together and praised each other’s work, accomplishments and vision. The discussion wouldn’t be any other way, absent a scandal of some kind (remember Phil Condit resigning over the air force tanker lease deal, Harry Stonecipher over zippergate). Despite the buzz on Wall Street and elsewhere of the relationship strains between the two men, those days really don’t matter now. What does matter is what comes next under Muilenburg.

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Qantas 32: cockpit resource management at work

July 25, 2015: This is a 45 minute Air Crash Investigation episode about the Qantas Airway Flight 32 Airbus A380 engine failure and the subsequent events. Aside from the interesting circumstances, this demonstrates Cockpit Resource Management. What especially caught our eye was at the end, when the Captain made comment of automation vs human crews. With discussion from time-to-time about having one pilot, no pilots or someone on the ground controlling the airplane (as with a drone), this is why we like having real people in the cockpit. Qantas 32 is a good example of of how pilots on the scene vs human monitoring on the ground is the much better way.

https://youtu.be/vbDqpD80_u0

 

 

Interior supplier sees 777, A330 production rates coming down

July 24, 2015: Interior supplier B/E Aerospace sees Boeing 777 Classic and Airbus A330ceo production rates coming down because Airbus and Boeing aren’t filling the “bridge” between the old and new airplane derivatives.

In its second quarter earnings call this week, company officials said that demand in the short term for interiors isn’t materializing for the 777 Classic and A330ceo as B/E had hoped. This means production rates for these wide-body airplanes will have to come down.

“When you look at wide body, when you look platform per platform, we [see] A330 coming down, 777 coming down, 747-8 coming down,” said Werner Lieberherr, president and CEO of B/E.

“There is increasing uncertainty with regard to the A330 and B777 short flow programs as a meaningful number of opportunities that we anticipated have thus far not materialized,” said Amin Khoury, executive chairman.

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Bjorn’s Corner: Weight or fuel limited, what is this all about?

By Bjorn Fehrm

By Bjorn Fehrm

24 July 2015, ©. Leeham Co: In recent articles around the Ultra Long Haul (ULH) needs of Singapore Airlines, there have been many references to aircraft being either fuel or weight limited. It is not so evident what this all means and what the practical consequences are of one or the other limitation.

Let’s go through what it all means with a practical example and show how it will affect the performance of the aircraft and what one can do about it.

As an example we will pick Boeing’s ULH 777-200LR. It is known as the Worldliner since it can connect almost any two cities in the world with its ultimate range of 9,300nm. In practical use, the Worldliner has often been configured for less range. In such configurations it runs out of fuel tank space before it reaches its Max Take-Off Weight. This is “fuel limited.” Here is how it works.

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