Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Airbus 1Q2024 results: Airbus CEO: “A350 in-service experience drives positive reputation and orders” April 25, 2024
- A350-1000 or 777-9? Part 3 April 25, 2024
- Boeing CEO promises company is turning around…again April 24, 2024
- Solid start for stand-alone GE Aerospace despite cuts to LEAP output April 23, 2024
- SPEEA, Boeing at impasse over safety program, union says April 23, 2024
Boeing 2014 orders: 1,550 gross, 1,432 net
Update, 8:45am PST: Boeing sent us this breakout of 777 and 737 orders:
777-300ER: 49
777 Freighter: 14
777X: 220
737 MAX: 891
Original Post:
Boeing received 1,550 gross orders and 1,432 net orders in 2014, one of its best years.
As is typical, the narrow-body 737 was by far and away the leader in orders. Boeing doesn’t break out the 737NG v 737 MAX in its monthly table. The 777 was buoyed by firming up the massive number of 777X commitments announced at the Dubai Air Show in November 2013. Although Boeing doesn’t break out, in this table, the 777X v 777 Classic, the company ended the year with around 60 777 Classic orders, an important number to fill the production gap we and others have been writing about last year.
The 767 commercial model continues to wind down, as the last ones off the line–all freighters–get delivered. The line will shift over to solely the USAF KC-46A once the 767Fs are delivered.
The 747-8 put in another dismal year, with two gross orders and two cancellations.
Boeing delivered 723 airplanes last year: 485 737s, 19 747s, 6 767s, 99 777s, 114 787s.
Reuters has this update of Airbus’ order position through November, in advance of the annual Airbus press conference on Jan. 13, where full year numbers will be announced. Airbus has a habit of finishing Decembers with a surge of orders, often topping the Boeing numbers.
Real time tracking, FDR transmission needs to happen now
As time passes following the Dec. 28 crash of AirAsia flight 8501, it has become even more apparent that the need for real time tracking of the position of a commercial flight and real time transmission of flight data recorder information is necessary.
The issues aren’t new. Airplanes have gone missing since the dawn of aviation. Real impetus began to pick up after the 2009 disappearance of Air France flight 447. This flight went down over the South Atlantic in proximity to major thunderstorms. Radar coverage indicated the flight track but not the final position. ACARS, the system monitoring the health of the aircraft’s systems, transmitted enough information so that the airline, investigators and Airbus had a reasonable picture of what happened but a picture that was incomplete. It took five days to locate the first debris and bodies in the water and two years to locate and retrieve the black boxes, which filled in the picture of a flight crew in complete befuddlement over what was happening to their airplane. The accident was entirely avoidable, and the circumstances incorporated into future training may well save lives.
Despite the delay in finding the airplane and black boxes, the airline industry and regulators did nothing to require real time tracking and data transmission.
Odds and Ends: AirAsia 8501, PNAA Conference, FWIW
Jan. 2, 2014: AirAsia 8501: Our friend Geoff Thomas has an interesting commentary about the AirAsia 8501 story. Also, an Airbus A330 pilot for a major US airline, offered these observations about QZ8501. A Linkedin profile suggests this pilot flies for Delta Air Lines.
We are now beginning to see more and more “conclusions” about what happened to 8501 from people who are being described as “experts.” Some of these are people we’ve never heard of, although this isn’t necessarily indicative that they don’t know what they are talking about–but we don’t think they do.
Since the airplane hasn’t been confirmed as found (searchers only think they’ve found it, but bad weather and bad seas have, at this writing, prevented confirmation), nor have the black boxes been recovered, the conclusions being set forth are interesting theories but that’s all they are.
Most of these possibilities are precisely what we’ve reported as areas of investigation and questions to be asked and answered. They way these “experts” are positioning possibilities is actually pretty embarrassing.
Treat these reports with the skepticism they deserve.
One thing we are surprised at: how quickly one of the few victims recovered has been buried. We thought an autopsy would take longer, and an autopsy would be the first clear indication of what happened: whether the victims died by blunt force trauma (i.e, impact with the water) or from decompression (suggesting an inflight fuselage rupture or mid-air break up).
Sixteen bodies are now reported to have been recovered (at 8:30pm PST Jan. 1).
AirAsia update, Dec. 30: Key questions in the investigation
Dec. 30, 2014: With the apparent discovery of the main wreckage of AirAsia Flt 8501 in about 100 ft of water, recovery of the airplane and its black boxes should be a relatively straight-forward operation.
Our previous posts have outlined general areas of inquiry. With this post, we drill down into some of the flight and airplane questions that will be part of the inquiry. We talked with an Airbus A320 captain for a major US airline in forming these issues. This captain has been flying for US carriers for 30 years and is rated on Boeing 737s, the McDonnell Douglas DC-10 and the A320.
Key points:
AirAsia update: debris from flight confirmed; airline was implementing real-time tracking
Dec. 30, 2014: Debris and bodies have been found and confirmed coming from AirAsia Flight QZ8501, bringing closure for the families and friends of the flight that disappeared on Sunday local time.
Reports of shadows that could be a wing or fuselage in water about 30 meters deep have also been seen.
Some debris and bodies have already been recovered.
If the main body of the wreckage has also been spotted, recovery of the all-important flight data and cockpit voice recorders could come rather quickly.
Top 10 Leeham News stories of 2014
Dec. 30, 2014: This was a highly active news year. Airbus launched the A330neo and A321neoLR. Boeing firmed up more than 200 orders for the 777X. Emirates canceled 70 A350 orders, a record cancellation when no customer collapse was involved. Boeing and its principal union, the IAM 751, faced off in a bitter contract vote. And on the truly dark side, Malaysian Airlines lost MH370 and MH17.
The Top 10 stories read on Leeham News included all of the above but MH17. Others made the Top 10 list. Here it is:
World’s dud airliners: a poll of your choices
Dec. 29, 2014: Now’s your chance to vote on what you think are the world’s dud airliners. Here are the parameters:
- Post World War II.
- A commercial airliner that entered service–not a prototype or a concept or a mock-up.
- “Dud” is defined as poor sales (typically fewer than 100, but it could be more) or something with a technological fault, or both.
- The final lists below are gleaned from our original post and choices, and some of the suggestions by readers. Not all suggestions have been incorporated and we’ve added a couple more.
- In our Honorable Mentions, we’ve included derivatives of successful airplanes that turned out to be sales duds.
You may vote for more than one airplane.
Odds and Ends: Why radar tracking is insufficient; 787 and batteries; 777 Classic sales
Radar tracking: This story from the Financial Post in Canada explains why radar tracking of airliners is insufficient and a better way is necessary. This also explains why better, more accurate coverage can save the airline industry gobs of money.
Gosh–instead of making a safety argument and lives saved, maybe focusing on money saved will spur some action….
787 and batteries: Aspire Aviation takes a deep look at the 787 battery report from Japan’s investigative agency
777 Classic Sales: Boeing ends 2014 with around 60 orders for the 777 Classic, at the top end of the 40-60 annual sales officials say is needed to maintain production rates at the current level of 100/yr. Dan Catchpole of The Everett Herald has an interview with Randy Tinseth, VP-Marketing of Boeing, who discusses the prospects of maintaining this pace until 2020, when the successor 777X enters service.