Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Department of Justice, Boeing OK to Non-Prosecution Agreement May 23, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 23. May 23, 2025
- Services are driving revenues and profits in difficult times, Part II May 22, 2025
- Boeing publicizes fourth Chief Aerospace Safety Officer Report May 21, 2025
- Boeing’s 2025 annual safety report due this month May 20, 2025
Airbus/Boeing production rates forecast through 2020
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Introduction
Feb. 3, 2015: Boeing out-delivered Airbus in 2014, for the second year in a row, as the 787 program improved in delivery rates and before the A350 made its first delivery in December.
Topping Airbus in deliveries allowed Boeing to claim it is the world’s leading 
commercial airplane manufacturer. By the delivery metric, Boeing is. By orders, Airbus came in first again, maintaining a decade-long lead.
The A350 ramps up its production this year even as the A330ceo rate begins to come down at the end of the year and further next year. Boeing vows to maintain the current production rate of the 777 Classic at 100/yr. The 747-8 rate is declining. And both companies are ramping up rates of the single-aisle airplanes.
The production wars continue.
Summary
- Airbus is forecast to out-produce Boeing by 2018.
- Boeing’s ramp-up of the 737 line will drive the delivery stream.
- The 737 rate may hit 63/mo by 2020.
- Airbus will likely match.
Triumph Group loss on 747-8 gives more clues on program status
Triumph Group revealed an unexpectedly large forward loss related to the ailing Boeing 747-8 program on its fiscal third quarter financial results last week.
The forward loss was triggered by Boeing’s decision in December to reduce the production rate from 1.5/mo to 1.3/mo from September this year.
Investment bank Canaccord had this to say in its note following Triumph’s earnings call:
Airbus A400M; how good and how late?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
01 Feb 2015: Six years ago Tom Enders, then-CEO for Airbus (when the parent was named EADS), threatened to stop the A400M project. He then played hardball to get eight European states to understand they had to pay 5bn Euro more or get no plane. Airbus existence could be threatened by a project that its management when the program was launch (CEO Jean Pierson) did not want but that the politicians convinced Pierson’s successor, Noel Forgeard, to do.
Airbus A400M Atlas landing at Farnborough Airshow. Source: Wikipedia.
Now Tom Enders is CEO of Airbus Group and has to apologize to the same governments that he struck a deal with then to finish the project if Airbus got the money and a consent to three years of delays. Now Airbus can no longer fulfill the terms and the airplane is still falling short of performance specifications. Deliveries have been delayed further and promised capabilities will be delivered later than said. Like then, heads are rolling at Airbus and tighter control is being applied.
Summary
- The A400M rests between the Lockheed Martin C-130 and the Boeing C-17.
- European countries need an airlifter for military and humanitarian missions.
- Dirt airstrip capability is needed.
- The program will take longer to complete and this time Airbus has to pay.
A350-1000 gets upgrade to 387 seats; we analyse the consequences
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
28 Jan 2015: Exactly one week after the first Airbus A350 started regular service between Doha and Frankfurt with Qatar Airways (on 15th of January), upgrades to the A350 capacity was announced by Airbus in a presentation to German investors. The forthcoming upgrade was hinted to media at Airbus annual press conference two weeks ago by Didier Evrard, Airbus head of programs, but no details were given at the time.
The changes were now spelled out more in detail, including pictures of the changed sections of the cabin. Having known about these changes for some time, we can now present the goals of these changes and make a first assessment of how they affect the competitive positioning of the A350.
Summary:
- The improvement program brings the Cabin-Flex lavatories to the A350 interior catalog, enabling smaller lavatory footprint and thereby increased seating densities.
- Airbus has also reworked galleys around the third and fourth door pairs, thereby freeing up galley area in other parts of the cabin.
- Taken together, Airbus claims an 18 seat improvement for the A350-1000, making it a 387 seater in a two class configuration.
- We apply the changes in our cabin model and examines how this will change the competitive landscape between Airbus A350 models and Boeing’s 787 and 777 families.
USAF picks 747-8 for new AF One, first delivery in 2018; end of program likely
The US Air Force has picked the Boeing 747-8 as the replacement for the 747-200-based Air Force One, reports Bloomberg News. The decision comes as absolutely no surprise.
The USAF selected the Boeing 747-8 as the next Air Force One, replacing the Boeing 747-200Bs used since the Bush 41 Administration.
The first of two 747-8s will be delivered in 2018, Bloomberg reports. The new airplanes won’t enter service until 2023. There are just 36 unfilled orders for the 747-8: 24 for the passenger model and 12 for the freighter. At the current rate of 18/yr, this is two years of backlog. At the reduced rate of 16/yr, this is 2 yrs 3 mos. Read more
Boeing earnings conference call: We’re in better and stronger position than ever, says McNerney
- See here for initial analyst reaction before the earnings call.
Boeing is entering 2015 better and stronger than at any time in recent history, said CEO Jim McNerney at the start of the Boeing earnings call today on 2014 financial results.
“We’ve completed a comprehensive refresh” of the product line with the 737 MAX, 777X, 787-10 and 737 MAX 200, he said. McNerney said that from lessons learned, the company has de-risked product strategy going forward. Boeing has also obtained long-term labor contract stability.
“We are equally committed to breaking the cost curve” on new airplane development programs, McNerney said.
McNerney said the outlook for the commercial aviation business environment remains positive. Boeing now has an eight year backlog as present rates.
Despite today’s fuel price environment, McNerney sees a continued positive outlook for deliveries and new orders. A combination of growth and replacement will continue to drive orders. He continues to see 40-60 777 Classic orders per year to successfully fill the production gap to EIS of the 777X.
Boeing 2014 earnings: $91bn in revenue
Jan. 28, 2015: Boeing issued its 4Q2014 and full year press release this morning; the conference call will be at 10:30am EST.
The closely watched 2015 cash flow guidance is more than $9bn. Revenue for 2014 was nearly $91bn and is forecast to pass $94bn this year.
Boeing will repurchase up to $12bn in stock over the next two-three years.
Initial analyst reaction:
Muilenburg’s challenges as Boeing CEO
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Introduction
Jan. 27, 2015: Dennis Muilenburg has been the No. 2 at The Boeing Co. for a little more than a year. He was named vice chairman, president and COO in December 2013.
Jim McNerney
His boss, Chairman and CEO Jim McNerney, turned 65 last August. Sixty-five is the mandatory retirement age, but this has been waived before and McNerney is widely understood to want to stick around through Boeing’s 100th Anniversary in 2016.
The industry is buzzing with reports that McNerney might move up soon to
Dennis Muilenburg
non-executive chairman, with Muilenburg assuming the CEO title.
If and when Muilenburg becomes CEO, he faces a laundry list of challenges.
Summary
- Strong competition from Airbus that is getting stronger;
- Continued cost cutting;
- Learning the Commercial Airplanes business;
- Declining defense business and revenues, putting pressure on profits and cash flow;
- Flight testing and development of the KC-46A;
- Development of the 737 MAX and 777X and proving that delivering new airplane programs on time and on budget can be achieved again;
- Selling enough 777 Classics to maintain production rates to the 2020 EIS of the 777X;
- Dealing with labor unrest with its Seattle area unions and a new attempt to organize the Charleston 787 plant; and
- Deciding whether to take that “moonshot” and launch new airplanes earlier than the 2030 EIS McNerney set as policy.