Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 4. Propulsive efficiency April 19, 2024
- Boeing unlikely to meet FAA’s 90-day deadline for new safety program April 18, 2024
- Focus on quality not slowing innovation, says GKN April 18, 2024
- Boeing defends 787, 777 against whistleblower charges April 17, 2024
- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
Airbus Innovation Days, Part 3: the A320neo
Klaus Roewe, SVP of the A320neo Family:
There are 2,700 A320neos in the backlog. Roewe provided a program update during the Airbus Innovation Days. Here is a paraphrased synopsis.
- The first flight remains on target for 3Q2014. Final assembly began in the spring.
- No further modification will be required to meet the target of 15% fuel burn improvement.
- The GTF has been delivered to Toulouse; the LEAP-1A is in testing at the CFM factory.
- Production rate is shown at 46/mo from mid-2016 through 2019. We are investigating rate 50 and above.
- Within the supply chain, the first NEO components are 70% better than target. More than 2,000 lessons learned from the A380 and A350 are incorporated into the NEO program. We are already testing control laws for the neo, a lesson learned from previous programs.
- Airbus has discussed with regulators to determine that evacuation of the A320 for up to 200 passengers is possible but a configuration of 189 passengers is more feasible.
- Maximum capacity A321neo (240 pax) reduces per-seat fuel cost by 6%.
- Slim line seats at 28 inches feels like 30 inch seat pitch.
- A321neo could carry 25 more passengers on a 2,500nm route departing Phoenix or Las Vegas, two hot airports that were challenging for the A321ceo (based on the CFM56 engine).
- We are “well below” weight targets.
- Meeting 95% commonality target.
- There has been an increase of airlines configuring the A321 with more than 200 seats from 5% to 40%, which drove the larger-capacity design of the A321neo.
- Flap extension will go up from 27 degrees to 34 degrees, and some changes to spoilers will be incorporated into the neo.
Airbus Innovation Days: A350 Media Test Flight Review
The 150 members of the media received an hour-long ride on A350-900 MSN002 (the “carbon fiber” liveried test plane in the Airbus fleet), a rare event.
Media at the Airbus Innovation Days flew on this, MSN002, for a 60 minute flight.
Entry into the airplane gave a clean, spacious impression, though the Boeing 787 Sky Interior is more visually impressive. The A350, like the 787, has mood lighting.
Airbus Innovation Days, Part 2: No order bubble and a lot more
Airbus lifted the embargo on John Leahy’s presentation, allowing immediate publication.
There is no aircraft order bubble, says John Leahy, COO-Customers of Airbus. Emerging markets and passenger traffic doubling every 15 years, bolstered by GDP growth, means orders will hold up, he said, leading off the Airbus Innovation Days Tuesday.
Highlights of Leahy’s address:
- There are 42 mega cities accounting for 99% of the long-haul traffic. Aircraft size is moving up and in 15 years, Leahy says RPKs will double, requiring aircraft like the A380.
- Leahy predicted the A320neo will maintain a greater market share than the Boeing 737 MAX of about 60%-40%.
- He claims the A320neo is 1.6 tons lighter than the 737 MAX.
- Leahy said the A320neo and A321neo now seat 189 and 240 seats respectively (in maximum capacity configuration). The former matches the 737 MAX and the latter has 25 more seats than the 737-9.
- He predicts China will become a competitor in 25 years.
- The competitor to the 787-10 is the A350-900 at 331 pax vs 315 pax with more range and cargo capability or derating the A359 gives a lighter aircraft at the same range.
- The 35 more seats of the 777X means the larger airplane than the A350-1000 is 35t heavier than the latter aircraft.
- The A380 hasn’t been fully optimized by many airlines; it could easily take 50 more seats.
- The A330neo is an interesting idea; we have to look at the money we have to spend and cannibalizing our A350 program. It will be the same size as the 787-9, which will have 1,000 mi more range. We could cover 92% of the routes with a wider seat and much lower capital cost. We have to look at the resources. It may not happen by Farnborough.
- No A350 slots are available until 2019-2020. Effectively sold out through 2019 though could move some positions around.
- In a walking press “scrum,” we asked Leahy, “if there is a potential market for 1,100-1,200 A330neos, why wouldn’t you do the airplane?” Leahy replied that the answer may be self-evident but once more noted that cost and resources will be important considerations. Talks with the engine makers, Rolls-Royce and GE, continue to determine the potential cost split between Airbus and them.
Airbus Innovation Days, Part 1: Leahy speaks about Emirates A350 order cancellation
We’re at the Airbus Innovation Days Wednesday-Thursday, with most of the information embargoed until Thursday evening. However, the following was not embargoed.
John Leahy, COO-Customers of Airbus, called the Emirates Airlines cancellation “not good news commercially,” but noted that there have been fewer cancellations of the A350 than the Boeing 787 program.
He noted that the deliveries were scheduled from 2019, so there is time to place new orders.
Leahy declined to comment on any connection between last year’s EK order for the A380 and this cancellation. He noted that EK is ordering more A380s and has been urging Airbus to re-engine the airplane, which Airbus is studying.
Emirates cancels A350 order, could be boost for slow-selling 777 Classic
Airbus announced Wednesday morning French time that Emirates Airlines canceled its firm order for 70 A350 XWBs.
In a statement, Airbus said:
Airbus confirms that Emirates Airline has decided to cancel its order of 70 A350 XWB aircraft. The decision follows on-going discussions with the airline in light of their fleet requirement review, as demonstrated by their order of 50 additional A380 at the last Dubai Airshow and their continuous interest in the program
Airbus and Emirates Airline benefit from a long-standing relationship and the airline recently reiterated its confidence in Airbus products particularly by praising the A380 and the benefits the aircraft brings to their operations.
The order of 50 A350-900 and 20 A350-1000 was originally placed by Emirates Airline in 2007 with first delivery slots scheduled from 2019.
This cancellation could open a hole in Emirates’ fleet plan. The so-called middle market for wide body twins is the heart of the market. This cancellation could open an opportunity for Boeing to step in with the slow-selling 777-300ER, which has a major production gap beginning in 2017. Rather than introduce a new fleet type, Emirates could opt to stay with the 777-300ER for commonality, or perhaps its huge order for 150 Boeing 777-8/9s may supply fleet needs.
Airbus has more than 800 orders, options and LOIs for the A350 even after cancellation.
Appraisal firm sees little impact on Classic values from A330neo
With apparent momentum building for the launch of the Airbus A330neo, widely expected at the Farnborough Air Show, the appraisal firm Collateral Verification Tuesday issued a note expressing the likely affect on values of the A330 Classic.
Impacts to values on the in-production Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families was a widespread concern when the Big Two moved to re-engine these aircraft types.
Airbus and Boeing each defended the values of the in-production models, saying that until the re-engined aircraft in service reach about half of the installed base of the current models, values of the latter shouldn’t be negatively impacted. We’ll see if this is the case, with the A320neo entering service next year and the 737 MAX in mid-2017. But if this theory holds, then the same should be true for the A330 Classic.
The values of the Classics have emerged as a worry going forward. Market forces believe Airbus will have to hold the line on pricing the A330neo, foregoing much if any of a premium for the new airplane. Airbus has promoted the Classic as the less expensive alternative to the higher priced, newer technology Boeing 787, and from the IATA AGM earlier this month in Doha, John Leahy, COO-customers for Airbus, called a low-cost A330neo “unbeatable” in economics.
Collateral Verifications doesn’t believe there will be much of an impact on Classic residual values. The company writes:
Over the last several months, the A330NEO has been a big part of the industry discussions. Although not yet launched, it seems more and more apparent that this may be announced in the near future. Due to this, many of our clients have approached us to find out how this may impact residual values of the existing A330 fleet. Based on the historical data we have collected on the A330-300 and Boeing 767-300ER, we have compared the impact of the A330-200 when it first entered service. Although not 100% similar to the introduction of an A330NEO, it does provide some guidance as to the potential impact of newly introduced aircraft to other in-production aircraft. The value impact on the A330-300 and the Boeing 767-300ER was about ~5-7% over their normal rate of depreciation which was not that much different from the impact on the 737 classics when the 737NG was introduced. As with any other older generation aircraft, the real value impact will be during a downturn. A330s and B767s dropped in value by 15-25% after 9/11 and dropped in value by 15-35% after the financial crisis. Overall, the initial impact of the A330NEO should not be greatly significant, unless the aircraft enters service during the next downturn.
Back to the Future with PeoplExpress
PeoplExpress, a fast growing no-frills carrier of the 1980s, is returning in name only. A new company, wet-leasing planes from another airline, uses the old name and the most of the old business plan to start service soon from Newport News (VA).
But in an erroneous set of conclusions, some are calling the business plan a radical departure from today’s airlines. In fact, the bare-bones, no-frills service offered by the new PeoplExpress was used by its forerunner and is truly the model for today’s Ultra Low Cost Carrier (ULCC), long before Ireland’s Ryanair and the USA’s Spirit Air adopted the model.
You pay for everything: soft drinks, checked baggage, and so on. There have been refinements since then, expanding the fee-based formula of the original PE, but fundamentally the ULCCs of today are based on the PE of yesterday. The new PE simply follows the ULCC approach.
The new PE will wet-lease Boeing 737-400s from a Las Vegas airline, Vision. Jeff Erickson, former CEO of Midway Airlines, Reno Air, Atlas Air and TWA, is the CEO of PE. We’ve known Erickson for more than 20 years. If PE is well-funded (and we don’t know the finances), we believe Erickson can indeed find a niche for the carrier as legacy airlines continue to give short shrift to smaller markets. Newport News doesn’t strike us as an obvious place to headquarter or hub an airline, but this decision was made before Erickson came on board.