Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Lufthansa splits wide-body order between Airbus and Boeing
Lufthansa Airlines announced its long-expected wide-body order, for 59 Airbus A350-900s and Boeing 777-9Xs.
Airbus won a firm order for 25 with options for 25 more. Boeing’s press release didn’t disclose options.
This is a big win for both companies in a hard-fought contest. LH had long said it expected to buy only from one company, and the split order means neither OEM came away empty handed. But Boeing did not get an order for the 787-10, which was part of the package being offered to LH. Nor did it receive an order for the 747-8I, which it had hoped to obtain as well.
787-9 first flight follow-up
Here is some “morning after” coverage of the first flight of the Boeing 787-9.
- The Wall Street Journal has this article with some detail about pricing, design improvements and other differences between the 789 and the 788. Via Google News so it should be accessible to all Readers.
- CNET has this report, along with a compilation of photos.
- The Seattle Post Intelligencer has this photo array.
- Aviation Week has this report, with its usual devotion to detail.
- The Everett Herald has this report.
Boeing 787-9 departs on first flight
The Boeing 787-9 left this morning on its first flight at 11:02 AM PDT. We discussed the implications of this first flight on Sept. 13.
We were at the first flight departure at Paine Field, Everett (WA), for what was essentially a photo-op (this isn’t a complaint); no Boeing officials were made available to talk with. The flight departed an hour later than schedule. As we write this, the flight is still airborne, due to land at Boeing Field at 4pm 3pm (back to original schedule) PDT. A press conference with the pilots follows, though we will miss this.
While waiting, a LAN 787-8 also prepared to depart on a test flight. Compared with the 787-9, the 788 is a stubby little airplane and the 789 much sleeker. We only imagine what the even longer 787-10 will look like next to its siblings.
Here are some videos we shot. We’ll start with the take-off, followed by other videos shot while waiting for first flight.
787-9 first flight today
The first flight of the Boeing 787-9 is scheduled for 10am PDT today. The Weather forecast is cloudy but no rain until this afternoon. Landing is about 3pm.
The first flight will be webcast here.
We’ll be on-site for the first flight, so we will be Tweeting @leehamnews but won’t be in a position to post here until later today.
USAF considers scrapping KC-10 in sequester
KC-10 scrapping: The US Air Force is considering scrapping the KC-10 aerial tanker fleet as a result of budget cutbacks in the sequester, The Army Times reports. This is stunning news, considering the seven year battle to recapitalize the Boeing KC-135 tanker fleet.
There are 59 KC-10s, based on the McDonnell Douglas DC-10. McDonnell Douglas merged with Boeing in 1997.
Boeing one day hopes to develop a tanker based on the 777-200LRF to replace the KC-10 and we expect Airbus Military will offer the A330 MRTT or even a tanker based on the A350, but we certainly didn’t expect any prospect of retiring the KC-10 prematurely.
Implications for the 787-9’s first flight
The first flight of the next member of the Boeing 787 family, the -9, is coming soon and this has greater implications than usual for what would be called a minor model variant.
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Boeing has been making “minor model variants” since the dawn of the jet age with the 707: the 707-120/320/420, the 727-100/200, the 737-100/200, the 300/400/500 family and so on right through today’s 787 variants.
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The first flight of the 787-9 ordinarily would be a little consequence. But because of the painful birth of the lead variant, the 787-8, and its troubled early service life that included a 3 ½ month grounding, the 787-9 will have greater scrutiny to see if Boeing has the program troubles behind it.
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Boeing made significant changes to the 787-9 based on lessons learned from the -8. Changes amount to a reported 30% of the design and include lessons learned from the design and production of the tail plane, the side-of-body wing join, elements of the wing’s internal structure, some electronics and, of course, the lithium ion batteries that led to the grounding of the 50 -8s in service.
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Also the engines. The GEnx and Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines fell short of specification for the -8. It remains to be seen whether the -9 will meet the specs with the engine upgrades, or whether more work will need to be done.
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Dispatch reliability remains a challenge for the -8, hovering around 98%; Boeing wants to see it closer to 99.7%, the standard set by the 737NG and the 777. This may not sound like much difference, but it means a lot to the airlines, and Boeing is quick to compare the 99.7% for the 737NG with the 99.4% for the rival Airbus A320. This fractional difference amounts to more than 60 flights a year Boeing claims as an advantage for the 737NG over the A320.
A nearly two point difference between today’s 787 and tomorrow’s is significant. The lessons learned, incorporated into the 787-9, will be watched as a path toward this reliability target.
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Expectations are high for the -9. We hear that the first plane emerged from the factory pretty “clean,” that is, without the troubles that bedeviled the -8. Let’s hope the flight test program comes off without a hitch.
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Nearly 40% of the more than 900 787 orders are for the -9. We expect the -9 and its larger sibling, the -10, to eventually account for more than 50% of the orders for the family.
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This was originally sent to our email list on September 3.