Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
For next new airplane, Pratt appears to trail CFM for next new engine
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By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 21, 2022, © Leeham News: As Boeing ponders whether to launch a new airplane program and industry consensus seems to be that this must happen in 2023 or 2024, Pratt & Whitney seems to face a dilemma.
Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan engine. Credit: Pratt & Whitney.
Convinced that the Geared Turbo Fan technology is the path to future engines, nevertheless, public statements indicate that by 2035, the GTF in the conventional form will fall short of the Open Fan being developed jointly by GE Aviation and Safran. GE and Safran are 50-50 partners in CFM International, which will sell the engine.
Rick Deurloo, the chief commercial officer for PW, told LNA last October that by 2031 (at the time, 10 years in the future), the GTF will have a 10% improvement in fuel burn and emissions compared with today’s GTF. PW will have a 1% improvement by 2024.
GE’s Travis Harper, who is the program manager for the Open Fan “RISE” engine under development, told LNA earlier this month that the RISE will reduce fuel consumption and emissions by 20% and be ready for entry into service by 2035.
If the goals outlined by Deurloo and Harper are taken at face value and achieved, this means the GTF will be up to 10% short of CFM’s engine ready for EIS four years later.
This was the question LNA put to other representatives of GE and PW at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference Feb. 10.
Cross-defaults led to Airbus cancellation of Qatar A321neo order
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 18, 2022, © Leeham News: Qatar Airways was in default of its Airbus contracts, allowing the OEM to cancel the orders for two A350-1000s and 50 A321neos, say people familiar with how these things work.
In a court filing last month, Airbus directly made this assertion.
The moves by Airbus over several weeks to cancel the orders from a major customer that is not in financial distress is unheard of.
Qatar and Airbus are embroiled in a very public dispute over flaking paint on A350s owned by Qatar that now is the subject of lawsuits in a London court. The airline seeks nearly $700m in damages. Qatar claims the flaking paint is a safety issue, backed by the government regulator that grounded 23 A350s. Airbus, and its governing regulator, EASA, say no safety issue is at stake.
Airbus offered to repaint the airplanes and provide compensation, say people familiar with the situation. The compensation was unacceptable to Qatar Airways, they say.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 7. Hybrids.
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 18, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Having covered batterie-based electric aircraft in the last three articles, we now move to the next ideas to improve our aircraft’s efficiency and burn less carbon-based fuels, hybrids.
A word of caution first. The words Sustainable, Electric, and Hybrid are, because of their success in ground transportation, virtually a must in any news release from anyone involved in aviation these days. We will unveil what is behind all this and what is real and what’s Greenwashing.
Figure 1. The successful ground hybrid, Toyota Prius. Source; Toyota.
Airbus’ 2021 results; Delivery of record net profit as it exits the pandemic
February 17, 2022, © Leeham News: Airbus presented its results for 2021 today. The company announced record net profits of €4.3bn as it exits the COVID restraints of 2020 and first half 2021.
Airbus’ problem is no longer a depressed market but how to ramp the A320/321 production to capture the demand. It expects to know by mid-year if it can go beyond a planned 65 deliveries per month by 2024.
The strong result came from deliveries of 611 commercial aircraft compared with 566 last year. Guidance for 2022 is 720 airliner deliveries, an operating profit of €5.5bn, and a Free Cash Flow of €3.5bn.
“Downfall” and “Boeing’s Fatal Flaw”
Feb. 17, 2022, (c) Leeham News: Tomorrow the documentary movie Downfall will be available on Netflix and, probably, Youtube. Unveiled during the Sundance film festival, Downfall is about the Boeing 737 MAX crisis.
The producers’ staff of Downfall contacted me during their research. I told them, among other things, that you had to know what else was going on at the time at Boeing when MAX was launched in July 2011 in order to understand the full context of Boeing during that period. The underlying thesis–that re-engining the 737 and decisions made–wasn’t only about profit, shareholder value, or greed, as many suggested. In fact, Boeing reported a $4bn in 2011 despite the pressures.
- The 787 hadn’t been delivered. It was three years late. Boeing was billions and billions over budget.
- The 747-8 was late and billions over budget.
- The tanker contract had been awarded the previous February with a bid 10% less than Airbus—and as we now know, it, too was late and billions over budget.
- Boeing’s engineering resources were stretched to the point where engineers were diverted to the 787 from other programs and outsourcing engineering work to India and Russia was done. The work from India on the 747-8 was poor and had to be re-done by SPEEA, further straining resources.
The new Boeing freighter, 777-8F, versus Airbus’ A350F, Part 3
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 16, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the operating economics of the Boeing 777-8F and Airbus A350F. Both freighters are new launches over the last 6 months with planned service entry 2025 (A350F) and 2027 (777-8F).
We flew the freighters with the help of our Aircraft Performance Model over a typical freight trunk route from Shanghai to Anchorage at a full load and compared their economics with the present freighter in this class, the Boeing 777F. Readers demanded we fly them with a part load and on shorter routes, so here we go.
Summary
- When we vary the payload and the route length, the economic differences between the freighters stay roughly the same.
HOTR: Consensus that Boeing must launch new airplane in 2023 or 2024
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 15, 2022, © Leeham News: There is a belief that when Boeing clears out much of its 737 MAX inventory, resumes delivery of the 787, and reduces a good portion of its debt that it will launch a new airplane program.
The Next Boeing Airplane (NBA), as LNA calls it, could be launched in 2023 or 2024, which seems to be a growing consensus.
Consultant Michel Merluzeau, who does work for Boeing on occasion, predicted last week that the NBA could be launched late next year or early the following year. The airplane would be a 225-240 passenger aircraft (two-class) and a single aisle. This is like the Boeing 757—which largely has exited passenger service—and the upper limits of the A321neo. Merluzeau made his predictions at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference.
Impact of 787-10 HGW on the large twin-aisle aircraft market
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Feb. 14th, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing Commercial Aircraft (BCA) CEO Stan Deal announced that the company was working on a high gross weight (HGW) variant of the 787-10 Dreamliner.
United Airlines 787-10. Credit: United Airlines.
LNA later revealed that the maximum takeoff weight (MTOW) increase would also be available on the 787-9. The goal of the increased MTOW is to make the 787-10 more competitive against the A350-900, which currently has a significantly higher nominal range: 6,430 nm vs. 8,100 nm. The 787-10 HGW range should match that of the 777-200ER.
The 787-10 HGW targets replacing larger, older-generation, twin-aisle aircraft still in service, notably the 777-200ER and 777-300ER. Boeing’s primary goal is to prevent customers from ordering the Airbus A350-900 due to a lack of payload-range for the 787-10.
Boeing paused developing the 777-8 around 2.5 years ago, and it is not clear whether the variant will ever enter service. Therefore, without the 787-10 HGW, there would be a sizable seat gap between the 787-9 (290) and 777-9 (414) in the American OEM’s long-range twin-aisle offering. Both A350 variants are in that seat gap.
The arrival on the market of the 787-10 HGW has the potential to affect sales opportunities for the A350 and the 777X. LNA analyses the potential replacement market for long-range aircraft seating 300 or more passengers in this context.
Summary
- Large twin-aisle replacement market;
- 787-10 HGW potential customers;
- The airlines unlikely to order the 787-10 HGW.
Pontifications: Rerunning the KC-X campaign as Technically Acceptable, Lowest Price process
Part 5 in a Series: the Boeing perspective in the last KC-X campaign
Feb. 14, 2022, © Leeham News: After the Government Accountability Office (GAO) upheld Boeing’s protest over the US Air Force contract award to Northrop Grumman-EADS, the parties regrouped to consider whether or how to compete for the KC-X contract again.
By Scott Hamilton
Boeing was discouraged after the Northrop win. According to press reports at the time, US Rep. Norm Dicks, a Democrat from Bremerton (WA) since retired, encouraged Boeing to make another bid. The US Air Force recast the new procurement to a pass-fail process on the requirements, emphasizing the price. The process was known as Technically Acceptable, Lowest Price, or TALP. Northrop decided to drop out. EADS, despite concluding the odds were long that it could win, went ahead.
In September 2009, the Air Force began the new procurement process. The same month, Jim Albaugh moved from Boeing’s defense unit, where he had been president and CEO, to Boeing Commercial Airplanes, in the same position. Although no longer involved day-to-day in the KC-X campaign, Albaugh nevertheless was in a good position to recall how Boeing approached this round.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 6P. Energy consumption, the deeper discussion.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
February 11, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 6. Energy consumption. It uses the Aircraft Performance Model from our Consultancy practice to generate energy consumed data when we fly a typical airline mission for the first aircraft we analyze, the battery-based Eviation Alice and Heart Aerospace ES-19.
These represent what to expect for airliners that have chosen this energy storage principle.
Heart Aerospace ES-19. Source: Heart Aerospace.