Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Mid-Market airplane comes before A320, 737 replacement: Pratt & Whitney exec
Subscription Required
Introduction
June 16, 2016, © Leeham Co.: A middle of the market airplane will come before a replacement for the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737, predicts Alan Epstein, vice
Alan Epstein, VP technology and environment, Pratt & Whitney.
president of technology and the environment for Pratt & Whitney.
“The challenge to the business of the narrow-bodies is the A320s and the 737s are so learned-out that Boeing and Airbus are so efficient at building those airplanes, that their inherent cost is so low, it’s extremely difficult to move into that market,” Epstein said. “Because the learning curve, you need incredibly deep pockets and you’re going to be negative for a long time.
“I think that also applies to Airbus and Boeing,” Epstein said, referring to the prospect of a new single-aisle aircraft.
Summary
- New single aisle airplane would be a “white elephant” for 10 years.
- Engines need to be at least 10% more efficient than today’s GTF and LEAP for a new single-aisle aircraft.
- Middle-Market airplane likely to come first.
Weekly analyst note synopses
Note: LNC begins today a weekly synopsis of select analyst notes we receive in the previous seven days.
Highlights:
- Delta Air Lines guides down on weaker PRASM.
- Garuda claims it’s now a buyer’s market for new aircraft.
- Interior supplier B/E Aerospace sees a bright future.
- Boeing’s 787 deferred production plans faces challenges
- Irkut is pricing the MC-21 15%-20% under the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737-8.
Inexpensive real-time FDR system developed by California firm
The flight test pattern of a Thompson Aerospace real-time data transmission on a Boeing airplane. Click on image to enlarge.
June 14, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Egyptair Flight MS804 disappeared from radar May 19 and there is very little known about the last minutes of the flight at this writing.
A French ship two weeks ago reported hearing pings on the same frequency as the flight’s black boxes. As yet, the pinging hasn’t been confirmed as being from those boxes (remember the false alarm on the Malaysia Airlines MH370 search). The main wreckage and these boxes have yet to be discovered.
With the designed 30-day battery life of the pinger expiring just days away, this is yet another example of why real-time transmission of flight data from the airplane to the ground is needed.
As with MH370, followed by Air Asia Flight 8501 (whose boxes and wreckage were eventually discovered and recovered), the mystery surrounding MS804 spur new calls for action to provide real-time data streaming of a flight’s important information about the performance of the airplane and any anomalies.
Airbus officials aid during their Innovation Days presentations last week they are studying real-time data streaming. ICAO, the international organization the sets rules and requirements for the world’s airlines, has moved slowly since MH370 but now appears ready by year-end to establish requirements and deadlines for real-time data streaming.
Cost and bandwidth have been cited as principal obstacles to overcome.
But a small company in California says the technology is here today at an affordable cost, and it is fully compliant with ICAO standards.
Slowing economies begin to impact Airbus, Boeing
Subscription Required
Introduction
LatAm Airbus A350. LatAm may defer some A350s and/or Boeing 787s. Photo: Flickr via Google images.
June 13, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Signs are becoming more frequent that airlines are facing slowing economies around the globe, with impacts on existing orders in the backlog.
Last week JetBlue said it is trimming growth on rising fuel costs and softening revenue. LatAm also said last week that it plans to trim some Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 orders amid slumping traffic in Brazil. Delta Air Lines previously said it will defer four A350s and trimming growth due to slowing economy.
Summary
- Wide-body sales slowing this year.
- 787 Surplus developed.
- A330neo sales stall.
- A350-2000 on hold.
- 777 Classic sales stall.
- Cargo demand still anemic, says IATA.
UTAS sees increasing electronic architecture in future airplanes
Subscription Required
Introduction
June 9, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The debate continues whether the next new, clean-sheet airplane will be a Middle of the Market aircraft (MOMA) or replacements for the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families.
Along with he studies of new airplanes are those undertaken by suppliers. Electric Systems, a unit of United Technologies Aerosystems (UTAS), is working with the OEMs to determine what level of electric systems will be used in the new aircraft, whatever is selected to go next.
Summary
- Electric systems on the Boeing 787 are up to 80% more efficient than those on the Boeing 777 Classic.
- The 777X retains the Classic systems or commonality.
- Benefits decline the shorter the flight.
Irkut MC-21 rolls out
June 9, 2016: Irkut rolled out its challenger to the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737-800/8
MC -21 rollout. Photo: AIN Online via Google images.
yesterday the MC-21-300.
The new airplane is powered by either the Pratt & Whitney GTF or a Russian engine. A report from a Russian-sponsored media site is here.
LNC previously published an analysis of the economics of the MC-21 behind our paywall. We’ve opened up the first of four parts to all readers here.
UTC media day 2: GTF hits 99.5% dispatch reliability rates
June 7, 2016: The new Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan, on seven Airbus A320neos,
Bob Leduc, president of Pratt & Whitney.
have achieved more than 2,000 revenue cycles with no returns or rejected take-offs, says Bob Leduc, president of Pratt & Whitney. The engines have a 99.5% dispatch reliability. The last time this level was achieved was with the introduction of the Boeing 777, which at the same point had a 100% dispatch reliability rate.
UTC media day 2: PW addresses Under-Performing supply chain
Day 2 of the United Technologies Corp (UTC) Media Days is focused on Pratt & Whitney.
June 7, 2016: Pratt & Whitney officials today clarified an eye-popping statement yesterday by Greg Hayes, CEO of parent United Technologies, that 44% of the suppliers on the new Geared Turbo Fan engine were performing to goals.
Wells Fargo sees reasonable, risky production rates
June 7, 2016: Single-aisle production rates of 57/mo at Boeing and 60/mo at Airbus are
reasonable when achieved in the near term but more problematic in 2019. Wide-body production rate hikes are risky.
This is the conclusion of a short research note issued June 1 by Wells Fargo Securities.
“Higher Rates Sustainable,” WFS writes. “Aircraft deliveries have historically been cyclical, yet Boeing and Airbus have had flat-to-rising deliveries for 12 years–and both forecast higher near-term deliveries. The bottom line is that the OEMs’ forecasts can be reasonable in our view, assuming aircraft retirement levels and/or traffic growth are above historical rates. Therefore, we expect higher deliveries over the next several years, but think it is unlikely that the full 35-40% A320/737 production increase currently envisioned by the OEMs will be achieved by 2020.”
UTC media day 1: UTAS, twice the size of any other aerospace systems company
Note: United Technologies Corp (UTC) is holding its annual Media Days today and tomorrow. We’re providing reporting from the event. This is the first time in our long participation that UTC Aerospace Systems is presenting. UTAS is a major supplier and service provider to all the airframe OEMs.
June 6, 2016: UTC Aerospace Systems is just four years old, following mergers with
Dave Gitlin, CEO of UTC Aerospace Systems (UTAS).
Hamilton Sundstrand and Goodrich–the largest in aerospace history, says Dave Gitlin, president of UTC Aerospace Systems.
UTAS provides electrical power and bleed air systems, engine, starters, power systems, all the circulating fans on the Boeing 787, monitoring systems and much more. Evacuation slides, the Ram Air Turbines, landing gear, flaps and slat control systems, brakes and thrust reversers.