Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- The BWB has a long way to go before flying passengers, freight May 12, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 21. May 9, 2025
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 2. May 8, 2025
- Embraer downplays tariff impact on 2025 results May 6, 2025
- JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising May 5, 2025
Follow the suppliers
Subscription required.
Introduction
July 28, 2015: © Leeham Co. Trying to decipher what the airframe Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are going to do is a sporty game that is often analogous to Kremlin watching, especially when it comes to Airbus and Boeing.
The OEMs are naturally circumspect about most everything they do: product development, aircraft pricing, sales campaigns, etc.
They also often are like lawyers when it comes to promoting their products in the public domain: cherry-pick the data that supports your product and which puts your competitor’s product in the worst possible light.
Aerospace analysts, consultants and media (as well as the enthusiast) look anywhere and everywhere for information to discern what the OEMs are up to or how the airplanes are performing or whatever the soup de jour is.
There is more information in the public domain than you would think.
Options for Singapore Airlines to operate direct flights to the US, part 3.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
July 22, 2015 © Leeham Co. We will now finish our series around Singapore Airlines (SQ) need for an Ultra Long Haul (ULH) airliner by looking at what would be the technology and performance of the A350R that Airbus talked about as a possible future model at the launch of A350XWB in 2007.
The A350R as presented was quite different to the A350-900LR that we presented in the first analysis articles. Whereas the A350-900LR is essentially a new Weight Variant (VW) the A350R was an aircraft combining the wing, engines and main landing gear from A350-1000 with the fuselage of A350-900 to create an Ultra Long Haul aircraft (and a freighter variant).
Such an A350 variant could be an interesting aircraft for Singapore or other airlines with a need for a ULH aircraft. We will use our proprietary aircraft model to create the A350R and check its performance against the A350-900LR and Boeing’s 777-8X. This will give an understanding if it could be worth the development effort for Airbus.
Summary:
- A350R would have very high range and payload weight performance.
- It would be a true ULH aircraft with which Airbus could pick a fight with Boeing’s 777-8X on the routes that requires an ULH.
- Its capacity would be volume constrained on a lower level than the 777-8X with better economics per seat and aircraft mile.
- The question remains, given its lower seat count, would it find a market besides the -8X?
Qantas 32: cockpit resource management at work
July 25, 2015: This is a 45 minute Air Crash Investigation episode about the Qantas Airway Flight 32 Airbus A380 engine failure and the subsequent events. Aside from the interesting circumstances, this demonstrates Cockpit Resource Management. What especially caught our eye was at the end, when the Captain made comment of automation vs human crews. With discussion from time-to-time about having one pilot, no pilots or someone on the ground controlling the airplane (as with a drone), this is why we like having real people in the cockpit. Qantas 32 is a good example of of how pilots on the scene vs human monitoring on the ground is the much better way.
https://youtu.be/vbDqpD80_u0
Interior supplier sees 777, A330 production rates coming down
July 24, 2015: Interior supplier B/E Aerospace sees Boeing 777 Classic and Airbus A330ceo production rates coming down because Airbus and Boeing aren’t filling
the “bridge” between the old and new airplane derivatives.
In its second quarter earnings call this week, company officials said that demand in the short term for interiors isn’t materializing for the 777 Classic and A330ceo as B/E had hoped. This means production rates for these wide-body airplanes will have to come down.
“When you look at wide body, when you look platform per platform, we [see] A330 coming down, 777 coming down, 747-8 coming down,” said Werner Lieberherr, president and CEO of B/E.
“There is increasing uncertainty with regard to the A330 and B777 short flow programs as a meaningful number of opportunities that we anticipated have thus far not materialized,” said Amin Khoury, executive chairman.
Options for Singapore Airlines to operate direct flights to the US, part 2.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
July 23, 2015 © Leeham Co. After having looked at Airbus’ A350-900 and Boeing’s 777-200LR for filling Singapore Airlines (SQ) need for an Ultra Long Haul (ULH) airliner we now complement the analysis by including Airbus’ and Boeing’s up and coming A350-1000 and 777-8X.
Singapore Airlines has 70 A350-900 on order to replace 25 Boeing 777-200ER. There would also be place in that order to replace the 25 777-300ERs that Singapore operate, most likely with the A350-1000 (SQ has the right to change model).
The 777-8X is Boeing’s replacement aircraft for 777-200LR and direct competitor to A350-1000. It is interesting to compare these two types flying the Trans-Pacific routes non-stop from Singapore to US that we flew with A350-900LR and 777-200LR and to compare the per seat fuel consumption versus the smaller aircraft.
Summary:
- The 777-8X and A350-1000 are a sized larger than both 777-200LR and A350-900LR, and can therefore transport more payload.
- The 777-8X is designed as an ULH aircraft, the A350-1000 not. We explore what this means for the US missions.
- Flying to the US which of these four aircraft will be the most efficient? And carry an interesting payload?
Options for Singapore Airlines to operate direct flights to the US.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
July 20, 2015 © Leeham Co. Last week week we wrote about how Singapore Airlines is in talks with Airbus and Boeing to find a suitable solution for its Ultra-Long Haul airplane needs. Now we go deeper into the subject, looking at the background to the need, the aircraft options and their economics.
We also check if the different aircraft options could open the famous Singapore-New York route again, this time with acceptable fuel economics.
Summary:
- We explore SQ’s options for US direct traffic, looking at possible aircraft and their fuel economics.
- The A340-500 flight to New York was stopped because of to high fuel costs. We show what the fuel consumption would have been with the 777-200LR.
- Should Airbus decide to launch the A350-900LR a specially equipped version could re-open the famous route. We show how and with what fuel gains over A340-500 and 777-200LR.
Airbus in talks with Singapore for ultra-long range airplane; “A350-900LR” likely
We believe Airbus is close to launching an “A350-900LR” (Long Range) in response to talks with Singapore Airlines for a longer-range airplane.
July 14, 2015 © Leeham Co. Singapore Airlines is in talks with Airbus and Boeing about an Ultra-Long Haul airplane that can fly from Singapore to the US non-stop.
The talks were first reported by Bloomberg News June 17, during the Paris Air Show.
Singapore discontinued the flights to Los Angeles and Newark when rising fuel prices made operation of the Airbus A340-500 used on the trips uneconomic.
Boeing currently has one airplane capable of service to Los Angeles, the current generation 777-200LR, which has a standard range of 8,665nm but not to Newark which is 8,300nm great-circle without the unpopular Additional Cargo-bay Tanks (ACT), any wind or longer range alternate would exceed the capabilities of 777-200LR in standard config. Los Angeles is 7,560nm from Singapore and when flying west the extra range in the standard 777-200LR would be needed to combat the prevailing westerly winds on the mission.
The Airbus A350-900 has a range of 7,900nm when transporting the same 301 passengers as 777-200LR. Boeing’s forthcoming 777-8X has a planned range of 9,300nm but it’s entry-into-service isn’t planned until around 2022.
Bjorn’s Corner: Electrical flight, how real?
By Bjorn Fehrm
10 July 2015, ©. Leeham Co: We have just witnessed the first solar electrical aircraft, Solar Impulse 2, cross the ocean from Tokyo to Hawaii. Today, Friday, Airbus Group will cross the English Channel with a battery powered electrical aircraft, the E-Fan.
How real is electrical flying? Real enough to make demonstration flights like the one to Hawaii and to Calais. Both these aircraft are technology demonstrators but it is symptomatic that they do these hops now, 2015.
Airbus Group’s E-Fan aircraft is preparing to cross the English Channel. Source: Airbus.
We live in the years when electrical cars have gone from exotic one-offs to serial produced products, still expensive but more and more practical. Why should not the aircraft industry follow? Read more
Airbus A380neo not yet a project
Drilling down into the story and checking with Airbus, as well as going back to Bregier interviews at the Paris Air Show and one we did with him at the IATA AGM in early June, it’s clear the Sunday Times was somewhat exuberant in its headline.
Read more
53 Comments
Posted on July 21, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Dubai Air Show, Emirates Airlines, Leeham News and Comment, Qatar Airways, Rolls-Royce
A380, A380neo, Airbus, Dubai Air Show, Emirates Airline, Fabrice Bregier, Qatar Airways, Rolls-Royce, Rolls-Royce Advance engine