Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Odds and Ends: 737 rate hike on cash flow; How the Chicago ATC fire impact unfolded; New PW engine chief
737 rate on on cash flow: The Seattle Times has a good article that described the impact on cash flow the decision by Boeing made to boost 737 production to 52/mo in 2018. The rate hike comes at a time when we believe production rates on the 777 Classic will be bottoming out to perhaps as low as five per month, which of course will negatively affect cash flow at Boeing.
We expect Boeing to further increase production rates of the 737 in 2019. The 777X production will just be in its infancy, with entry-into-service planned for 2020. (Information continues below the picture.)
Later this month, we will unveil a new, updated Leeham News and Comment with a combination of paid and free content. Watch this space for more information.
The decline in production rate of the 777 Classic, which we think will happen in 2017 and a like rate reduction for the 747-8, which we believe will occur as early as 2016, represents the reason why Wall Street analysts are turning more and more bearish on Boeing stock.
Qatar Airways first A350-900 visible with official photo
Airbus today publicized the first official photo of a customer A350-900, just two days after its certification. It is Qatar Airways first A350-900, production number MSN006, which is towed between the different finishing stations at Toulouse.
Qatar Airways first A350-900 in a picture from Airbus.
What is left to do is finishing off the interior, then ground tests and flight tests. The finishing of the interior to Qatar’s standards can be a painstaking process, especially as this is the first time that their interior (which surly has several items which you don’t find in Airbus normal A350 interior catalog) is build together in the aircraft.
Fitting a customer interior for the first time is something which is time-consuming as one is at the same time collecting every bit of feedback for possible adjustments of the fittings, seats etc for later builds. Making it for Qatar makes this even more delicate, they are perfectionists when it comes to the interior finish. Parts that don’t fit perfectly or have surface faults will be removed and go into an adjustment process, everything being painstakingly documented to quickly come down the learning curve. We can be sure Airbus and Qatar’s interior teams and B/E Aerospace (who as far as we know makes the premium seats) are working long days in the weeks ahead (and has done so for some time). The interior of MSN005, the rout proving aircraft with a standard Airbus catalog interior, took two and a half months in the interior stations, this aircraft has been in these stations for different interior fittings since May and will continue for some further weeks.
Production sequence
Qatar will receive the first eight A350 off the production line with production numbers MSN006 to MSN013. One can expect the first batch of eight Qatar A350 to have been delivered before third quarter next year. Then follows Vietnam Airlines with four aircraft and then Finnair with three. This time next year we should have seen Singapore Airlines livery as well and if things are running well Cathay Pacific’s.
By Leeham Co EU
Odds and Ends: Coming soon–new Leeham News; Boeing v SPEEA; 86-seat Q400; Boeing 326; Budapest Air Show
Coming soon: We will be rolling out changes this month to Leeham News and Comment. We will expand our News and Analysis, providing the most insightful commentary of aviation issues of any on-line publication. Most on-line news resources either collate into one portal news from around the world, or report news without analysis, or offer superficial analysis. We’re famous (or infamous, depending on your viewpoint) for providing insight in a no-BS manner.
We often report the news before anyone else, and we spot market trends long before others.
For example:
- We concluded in December 2013 that Airbus had to launch the A330neo program, at a time when other on-line publications were still muddling along and even Airbus hadn’t reached its conclusion.
- We were the first to report that Airbus revamped its A350-1000, ahead of the company’s own announcement and before any other media tumbled to the development.
- We’ve been the leading publication to focus on LOPA (Layout Of Passenger Accommodations) and IAC (Integrated Airplane Configuration) when comparing Airbus and Boeing airplanes at a time when other publications didn’t even know the terms.
- Our aircraft economic analysis has the advantage of aerospace engineering background to take into account detailed understanding of aerodynamic improvements, down to the last percentage point.
These changes include transformation into a combination paid and free content site. We’ll have paid content several times a week in addition to our free content.
Changes are coming to Leeham News and Comment this month. Watch this space for details.
A350 certified; we provide a comprehensive program review
Airbus’ most recent all-new aircraft, the A350 has achieved civil airline airworthiness certification from EASA today September 30, FAA certification will follow. It marks an end to an eight year program to develop an all-new airliner in the 250-350 passenger segment. It also creates a point where a review of this last (for quite a while) big aircraft program is called for.
Airbus photo of A350 test aircraft in formation, celebrating the certification.
Below we go through all the aspects of the A350, not only program and technical aspects but also organizational, economical and market communication aspects. In all those dimensions it was the big step forward. Read more
Air Berlin 787 cancellation potentially gives Boeing big advantage in Delta order competition
The announcement last week that AirBerlin canceled orders for 15 Boeing 787s gives Boeing an unexpected, big advantage in the contest for a big wide-body order from Delta Air Lines–depending on when Delta wants the airplanes.
The competition apparently has been narrowed to the Airbus A350-900 and the Boeing 787-9, according to Flight Global. Based on this article, the Airbus A330-900 neo has been eliminated, which if true is a blow to the fledgling program in which Airbus had counted on Delta to be a launch customer.
Outside of the OEMs and Delta, it’s not known when Delta wants 50 widebodies. But the A350 and 787 are essentially sold out through the end of the decade, though both OEMs can typically find delivery slots for important campaigns such as this one by over-booking or persuading other customers to move their delivery positions.
Airbus has plenty of slots for the A330neo from 4Q2017, when entry-into-service is planned. But with the apparent elimination of the A330neo from the competition, delivery schedule becomes important–and the AirBerlin cancellation works to Boeing’s advantage.
Assessing the wide-body and narrow-body freighters
This column has been updated since distribution to our e-mail recipients Sept. 22.
There is an emerging demand to replace aging small- and medium-size wide-body freighters, but with limited choices to replace them.
Airbus A310Fs and A300Fs are rapidly aging. Used principally by FedEx, UPS and DHL, these aircraft are in a size that is too small for the new-build Boeing 777F and Airbus A330-200F, and for which these airplanes are too costly to provide a good return on investment.
FedEx is replacing many of its aircraft with the new-build Boeing 767-300ERF, but it deferred and reduced its order for the 777F. UPS has no 767s on order from Boeing, having previously fulfilled its backlog.
The package carriers may down-gauge. FedEx contracted to acquire a large number of Boeing 757s for P2F conversion, but many of these have been replacing Boeing 727Fs. DHL is currently evaluating proposals for converting 757s from P2Fs from third-party conversion companies. The 767-300ER is the one airplane most comparable with the A310s and A300s.
FedEx, UPS and DHL may simply retire some of these aging Airbuses rather than replace them.
Odds and Ends: Comparing Airbus, Boeing 20-year forecasts; A320neo first flight; 787 battery probe fizzles; Mythbusting
Airbus v Boeing forecasts: The Blog by Javier takes its annual look at and comparison of the Airbus and Boeing 20-year forecasts. Airbus issued its new forecast this week; Boeing’s annual update was issued last summer.
Separately, the A320neo with Pratt & Whitney engines made its first flight today. The CFM LEAP neo is supposed to follow by six months. Showing class, Boeing Tweeted a congratulations for a milestone for the industry.
787 battery probe: The US National Transportation Safety Board hasn’t been able to find the root cause of the lithium ion battery failure in the Japan Air Lines and ANA Boeing 787 incidents. Now, the Japanese investigation has also failed to find the root cause of the ANA battery meltdown.
It’s rare but not unknown for investigators to not find root causes of problems, sometimes for years. A Northwest Airlines Boeing 747-400 split rudder hard over during a flight from Anchorage to Tokyo is one example; it took four years to determine the cause. The root cause of Boeing 737 rudder hard-overs, two of which caused fatal accidents, went unsolved for years.
Boarding airplanes: The reality show Mythbusters, an often entertaining look at myths, conventional wisdom, fact and fiction, takes a deep dive into airplane boarding. The article, with an insert to the episode, is here.
The Southwest Airlines style of boarding, with no seat assignments and derisively called cattle-call boarding, is the fastest and the most annoying, according to Mythbusters. Back-to-front is the longest. The Window-Middle-Aisle works best (but for those of us who like the aisle seat, the overhead bins are usually stuffed by then).
Odds and Ends: Boeing firms 52/mo for 737; Product strategy; Aircraft demand and production rates
Boeing firms 52/mo for 737: Boeing this morning announced what we reported in June 2013: that it will go to a production rate of 52/mo for the 737 in 2018. This will not be the last rate increase for the 737.
Airbus previously notified suppliers to be prepared for a rate of 54/mo in 2018 for the A320, which we reported some time ago.
Product strategy: In the continuing tit-for-tat in product strategy debate between Airbus and Boeing, often show slides representing their view of how their products line up vs The Other Guy. We’ve often criticized Boeing for taking liberties with how it views Airbus seat; for example, Boeing assigned fewer than 350 seats to the A350-1000, while Airbus now promotes the airplane as having 369 seats in a J/Y class configuration. Boeing assigns 467 seats to its 747-8I while Airbus to now viewed the 747-8 at 405 seats, a figure we generally use in our analysis to represent typical airline configuration.
Airbus recently showed the following slide presenting its current view of the product line up.
Read more
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Posted on October 2, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Leeham News and Comment
737, 747-8I, 777-300ER, 777X, A320, A350, A380, Airbus, Boeing, UBS