Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 4. Propulsive efficiency April 19, 2024
- Boeing unlikely to meet FAA’s 90-day deadline for new safety program April 18, 2024
- Focus on quality not slowing innovation, says GKN April 18, 2024
- Boeing defends 787, 777 against whistleblower charges April 17, 2024
- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
Odds and Ends: Independents like battery fix; 787 test flight today?; JAL and A350; PAL and 777X
Back to the 787 batteries: The Seattle Times had this story Saturday in which it talked with independent experts who like the battery fix proposed by Boeing. The Time also reported that the first of two test flights might occur today.
JAL may buy A350s: Japan Air Lines may buy 20 Airbus A350s, according to this news report. The aircraft would replace Boeing 777s, according to this report.
Hawaiian firms A321neo order: It was announced in January as an MOU and now Hawaiian Airlines has firmed up its order for 20 Airbus A321neos for use between the Islands and the US West Coast.
Philippine Air Lines may buy 777x: PAL may buy the forthcoming Boeing 777X, looking at the 400-passenger 9X version.
Bombardier investors’ day: CSeries focus
We’re pretty tired of the Boeing 787 stuff, but it’s a story that simply is a daily occurrence. So it’s with some relief we have something else to talk about today.
Bombardier held an investors’ day today (March 21). Here are some links and documents. The day was for all of Bombardier, but we’re just focusing on Aerospace.
Aviation Week has this article from the March 7 CSeries “reveal.”
Here’s a link to a 43 page PDF (PPT) presentation about the Aerospace division. This includes Business Aircraft and the entire commercial line.
One graph shows the current line-up of single-aisle aircraft (click to enlarge):
BBD has been under cash flow and stock price pressure in recent years, and terms this year as a “turning point.” The first flight of the CS100 is scheduled for June; officials say the end of June but we believe they will move heaven and earth to have the plane flying by the Paris Air Show mid-month.
BBD hopes to have power-on for the CS100 Flight Test Vehicle 1 (FTV 1) this week or next. Fly-by-wire testing has been underway this week.
At the investors’ day, Ben Boehm, VP Strategy and Business Development, said much of the up-gauging we’re seeing in aircraft selection today is in the 150-210 seat segment. Within the 100-149 seat sector, Boehm says BBD has yet to lose a competition to Airbus or Boeing.
Philippe Poutissou, VP Marketing, said that as an airline gets to 20 or 30 aircraft, fleet commonality benefits diminish. The biggest aircraft is the benefit of pooling and spares. “As you get into the 20s, 30s and 40s, the incremental benefit of commonality gets quite small.”
Odds and Ends: Post-SPEEA Vote; LionAir and RyanAir; ANA skeptical of Boeing timeline
Post-SPEEA Vote: The ratification of the contract offer by Boeing by the SPEEA technical workers is welcome news. It gives Boeing and its stakeholders certainty at a time when the 787 issues remain outstanding and the developmental programs of the 777X, the 787-9 and 10, the 737 MAX and the KC-46A are at important stages. Although SPEEA took a loss over the pension issue, the union was able to extend the previous contract provisions over economic issues for another four years. Call this a draw for the two sides.
LionAir and RyanAir: On Monday Airbus announced an order for 234 A320ceo/neo family members from LionAir, previously an all-Boeing customer. Today Boeing announced an order for 175 737-800s from RyanAir, an exclusive Boeing customer. There were no MAXes in the order, however. RyanAir CEO Michael O’Leary has not been a fan of the re-engined 737.
ANA skeptical of 787 timeline: Reuters has an interview with All Nippon Airways in which it expresses some skepticism about the Boeing timeline of returning the 787 to service within weeks. ANA calls this a “best case” scenario.
On the other hand, LOT, which took the 787 out of its schedule through September, now says the airplanes could be back in service by summer.
Vote in the Polls: All Nippon Airlines has begun its effort to rebuild the 787 brand flying in its colors. Boeing began its effort last week. Is the view of the 787 turning? If you haven’t already done so, please be sure to vote in these polls (scroll down after clicking the link).
Paine Field Pleads its Case: Targeted for closure in Sequester, with a decision to be announced this week, the director of Everett Paine Field pleaded his case to remain open in this letter: FAA Tower Closure – Paine Field (1).
Well wishes: Daniel Tsang, founder of Aspire Aviation, has been hospitalized in Sydney, Australia, with an unknown ailment first thought to be measles but it’s not. Well wishes to him.
Odds and Ends: Second SPEEA vote results tomorrow night; Big LionAir-Airbus order finally ready
SPEEA vote tomorrow night: Update: Tomorrow is now today; the SPEEA vote results will be counted tonight (Monday).
The revote by SPEEA technical workers will be counted Monday night. Technical workers rejected the best and final offer from Boeing last month and authorized a strike. The professional engineers accepted the contract but authorized a vote, a technical maneuver that became moot with contract acceptance.
The issue leading to rejection was Boeing’s desire to shift from a defined pension plan to a defined contribution for new employees.
Boeing refused to improve its offer. Without the backing of the professionals, we think the technical workers will vote to approve the contract this time.
Vote results will be well into the evening.
Big Airbus-LionAir Order: At long last, the huge order we first referred to September 24 last year appears ready to be announced Monday, Paris time. Reuters, The Wall Street Journal and French papers are reporting the deal will be announced tomorrow. It’s for A320s (neos, maybe some ceos) and breaks Boeing’s monopoly with LionAir and the 737/737MAX. This is a huge win for Airbus.
Odds and Ends: AF 447 resurfaces; Racing toward 2,000; A400M; beating back anti-droners
Air France 447: More data has surfaces on Air France 447, the Airbus A330 that plunged into the Atlantic on a flight from Brazil to France several years ago. In a cooperative post-investigation that included Airbus and Boeing, efforts to replicate the crash in a simulator failed.
It separately emerged that the pilot of the flight had one hour of sleep and the co-pilots also didn’t have the requisite sleep.
Racing Toward 2,000: At ISTAT, Airbus COO Customers John Leahy said he expected to gain another 200 orders this month for the A320 family, reaching 2,000 orders for the neo in the process. Lufthansa and Turkish have since announced orders.
A400M certified: The troubled Airbus A400M has been certified.
Beating back anti-droners: Boeing and supporters killed legislation in Washington State that would have outlawed drones. Boeing’s subsidiary Insitu is headquartered in Washington and considered leaving to Oregon, across the Columbia River. A coalition is also working to have Moses Lake (WA) selected as a drone testing site under an FAA program.
Special ‘task force’ studied lithium-ion batteries long before JAL 787 incident
A special task force was studying issues relating to the use of lithium-ion batteries in airliners long before the January 2013 Japan Air Lines fire. The effort began in 2008 and it met in December 2012, one month before the JAL fire.
Boeing, the FAA, Embraer, Airbus, GS Yuasa, American Airlines and ALPA are just a few who participated in these meetings, according to documents.
Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing for Boeing, referred to the group when he discussed the FAA approval to proceed with the Boeing plan to fix the 787 battery issues in his blog, here.
Tinseth writes:
The certification plan calls for a series of tests that show how the improved battery system will perform in normal and abnormal conditions. The test plans were written based on the FAA’s standards as well as applicable guidelines published by the Radio Technical Commission on Aeronautics (RTCA), an advisory committee that provides recommendations on ways to meet regulatory requirements. The RTCA guidelines were not available when the original 787 battery certification plan was developed.
We asked Boeing what the document was that Tinseth referred to above: it is a document numbered DO-311. There are a number of documents at RTCA containing the reference to DO-311.
DO-311 is described by RTCA as:
Odds and Ends: Tanker-like redux; Ryanair’s 200 737s; new use for Winglet
Tanker-like Redux: As you read this story, it sounds a lot like Boeing vs EADS, right down to the build-it-in-the-USA element.
Ryanair’s 200 737s: News emerged that Ryanair will firm up an order soon for 200 Boeing 737s. This has been hanging “out there” for some time. We learned of this likelihood a couple of months ago. It was all hush-hush while Ryanair took another run at Aer Lingus.
Pan Am landmark: For those filled with nostalgia, this news is sad: the famed Pan Am Worldport faces the wrecking ball.
New Winglet use: This is pretty cool. Via Steve Trimble of Flight Global.
Odds and Ends: 777X ATO next month, says AvWeek; 787 and the FAA; A318
777X ATO: Aviation Week reports that Boeing’s Board will grant Authority to Offer the 777X at the next meeting, in April.
Emirates Airlines has previously said it will order 100 or more of the X to begin replacing its 777-300ERs. Lufthansa and Air Lease Corp are likely co-launch customers.
Update: The Wall Street Journal now has an article identifying British Airways and Japan Air Lines as possible launch customers.
787 and the FAA: The FAA is expected to green light this week going forward with Boeing’s proposed fixes for the battery issues in the 787, but this doesn’t mean the challenges are over for Boeing. Extensive lab and flight testing will be required, meaning it still will be some time before the grounding is lifted.
A318 Done: Bloomberg has a story about the Airbus A318 and its dried-up sales. It was never a good seller.