Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
- Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds June 14, 2025
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
- Airbus Canada CEO: Airbus is here to stay in Canada June 14, 2025
The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)
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Introduction
Aug. 30, 2018, © Leeham News: As time goes by, the Middle of the Market airplane appears to have 
become the Muddle of the Market.
Boeing can’t seem to close the business case on its Middle of the Market airplane, the New Midmarket Aircraft, or NMA.
And Airbus continues to stir the pot with talk of an A321XLR and the ever-present A321neo Plus.
Summary
- Boeing’s been talking about the MOM for six years—an extraordinarily long time.
- The aircraft evolved from a 757 replacement to a 767 replacement—something the 787 was billed to be.
- The business case remains unclear.
- The Airplane definition is still a matter of debate.
- The MOM was defined by Boeing as above the 737-9 and below the 787-8—but now there’s the 737-10 at the small end, for capacity, and renewed interest in the 787-8 at the upper end.
- Airbus is pushing the A321LR and nearing a decision whether to proceed with the A321XLR.
- Engine makers remain cool to the NMA.
- The supply chain is unenthused about the NMA because Boeing wants to capture the aftermarket and hold the intellectual property rights.
- The supply chain is in melt-down.
Other than this, everything is fine.
Pontifications: Boeing aid to Jet Airways uncommon but not unusual
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 27, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing is giving financial help to India’s Jet Airways, according to a news report.
This doesn’t come as a surprise.
Jet Airways has 225 737 MAXes on order (50 direct, the rest listed via lessors). It’s also in what appears to be dire financial straits.
Media reports indicated the airline was possibly going to be out of business in 60 days and it deferred releasing its financial results “indefinitely.” The government is going to probe the airline, according to a press report.
The Boeing aid is not common but it’s not unknown, either.
Can an Airbus A321XLR kill NMA’s business case? Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 23, 2018, © Leeham News.: Last week we examined the areas which limit the capabilities of the Airbus A321LR from addressing a larger part of what is called the Middle of the Market or the NMA segment.
We now discuss the changes Airbus can do which would make an A321XLR cover more of an NMA space.
Summary:
- The A321LR needs more fuel tankage to fly longer.
- Installing Additional Center Tanks, (ACTs) takes away critical luggage space and increases the aircraft’s empty weight.
- We explore other ways around the problem and what these bring.
Pontifications: Workforce shortage hurts entire supply chain
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 20, 2018, © Leeham News: A growing shortage of workers is exacerbating pressure on suppliers as they struggle to meet current aircraft production rates, even as Airbus and Boeing want to raise them even more.
Add to this the thousands of retirements facing the OEMs in the next 5-10 years, and you can see the strain facing Airbus, Boeing, the engine makers and the suppliers feeding into them.
It also partly explains the shifting trend toward automation. Setting aside the obvious benefits of automation—quality control, accuracy, boring repetitive work, etc—the supply chain in simply facing a growing shortage of workers for which there is no easy answer.
Can an Airbus A321XLR kill NMA’s business case?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 16, 2018, © Leeham News.: Airbus is working on improving the A321LR so it can fly more of the missions Boeing’s NMA is aimed for, according to Aviation Week. By it, Airbus could ideally make the NMA business case a No-Go.
To understand how much of the NMA market an A321XLR can address we need to understand the limitations of the A321LR and what can be done about them. And how fast such improvements could be implemented.
Summary:
- The A321LR is limited in both Take-Off Weight and fuel capacity to fly further than today’s aircraft.
- How to lift these limitations without imposing large changes is the subject of this week’s article and a follow-up article next week.
Stopping airliner theft
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 15, 2018, © Leeham News.: The theft of the Horizon Air Bombardier Q400 Friday brings the question how easy airliners are to steal and what can be made about it.
Having never flown an airliner before, I recently learned how to start one from cold and get it into the air. Here’s my take on how easy (or not) it is to get an airliner in the air by a novice and what can be done to make it harder.
The Dash 8 Q400 involved in the Friday incident. Source: Wikipedia.
Airbus Business Line Services ramping up
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Introduction
Aug. 13, 2018, © Leeham News: While Boeing aggressively pushes its new business unit, Boeing Global Services (BGS), on a trajectory for a $50bn revenue target 
in 10 years, Airbus quietly has its own services operation.
Airbus services has a goal to reach $10bn in revenue over the next decade for its commercial services. In 2017, the Airbus Group revenue of $9bn was split roughly evenly between commercial, helicopters and defense.
BGS’ revenue target includes all services.
Unlike BGS, Airbus services are not a separate business unit/profit center. Ironically, the Airbus website describes the airliner-part as “commercial aircraft services.” Boeing’s airliner services operation was called Commercial Aviation Services, or CAS, before CAS merged with the Boeing defense operation to form BGS. The business line is promoted as Services by Airbus in collateral material.
Pontifications: Horizon Q400 theft spurs thoughts about solo pilot idea
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 13, 2018, © Leeham News: The bizarre theft of a Horizon Airlines Bombardier Q400 at Sea-Tac Airport Friday night by a 29-year old employee will take some time for investigators to unravel.
The employee, a ramp agent, appeared to have no other motive in mind other than a last joy ride before ending his life.
Will rising fuel prices revitalize new aircraft sales? Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 9, 2018, © Leeham News.: We continue last week’s article about how changing fuel prizes affects fleet plans. Last week we studied how long-term rising fuel prices will favour new, more fuel-efficient single-aisle aircraft.
Now we make the analysis with Widebody aircraft in the segment 250 to 300 seats.
Summary:
- The crossover fuel price where a new generation Widebody is a good investment is slightly different than for the Narrowbody.
- As for the Narrowbody, the maintenance costs for a half-life Widebody and how these are handled influence the crossover fuel price.
777F, 747-8F orders help former’s bridge, solidify Boeing as freighter king
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Introduction
Aug. 6, 2018, © Leeham News: The surge of orders at the Farnborough Air Show for Boeing 777 and 747-8 freighters is welcome news for Boeing, which still had 
production gaps to bridge between the 777 Classic and the 777X.
The 747-8F orders, for five, helps breathe life into this struggling program.
The orders also add to Boeing’s virtual monopoly in new-build cargo aircraft backlogs.
Summary
- 777F orders and commitments now nearly double the remaining 777-300ER backlog.
- Three new-build freighter models swamp Airbus offering of just the A330-200F.
- Airbus pitching UPS for A330-800F.