Rising fuel prices hit earnings, but there’s a silver lining for OEMs

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Introduction

July 30, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Fuel prices are spiking and it’s already causing airlines to adjust growth and fleet plans.

But rising fuel prices could mean orders for slow-selling aircraft might pick up. Still, there are mixed signals on this front.

Summary
  • American and Southwest airlines are curbing growth and American is deferring airplanes due to rising fuel prices.
  • Alaska Airlines reported fuel prices were up 10 consecutive quarters, adding $850m to expenses.
  • Fuel prices were just under $80bbl on the US spot market last Thursday.
  • The inflection point between keeping current generation planes and ordering new ones with more efficient engines is fast approaching.
  • This could be a boost to the slow-selling Airbus A330neo and accelerate demand for the Embraer EJet-E2 and the Airbus A220 (nee Bombardier C Series).

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Pontifications: thyssenkrupp’s international expansion

By Scott Hamilton

July 30, 2018, © Leeham News: thyssenkrupp, the German supplier, is a mouthful to say.

Even its name is different, using the small “t” rather than a capital “T”.

Being from Chicago, I suitably butchered it when I met at the Farnborough Air Show with its CEO, American Laura Holmes.

I won’t even attempt to write how I mangled the name, but I didn’t feel too bad when I later discovered there is a 15 second YouTube video on its pronunciation: two-sen croup (in German) or tiss-in krup [as in pup] (in English).

Regardless, the company is in an expansion mode internationally—including in Africa.

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Airbus posts strong earnings; ‘hell of a ride’ ahead, says CEO

By Dan Catchpole

July 26, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus posted strong earnings for the year’s second quarter, thanks to better profitability on its A350 and A320 programs. Investors rewarded the news by pushing Airbus share prices to a 52-week high Thursday morning.

However, Airbus lowered its earnings for the full year due to its takeover of Bombardier’s troubled C Series program, since renamed the A220. Airbus plans to deliver 18 of the single-aisle jetliners this year.

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Leahy, Kirby headline “Plane Truths” conference in Chicago Sept. 11-12

July 24, 2018, © Leeham News: John Leahy, who retired in January after 33 years at Airbus, and Scott Kirby, president of United Airlines, headline the Leeham Co. and Airfinance Journal conference, Plane Truths: The Next 12 Months, Sept. 11-12 in Chicago.

This will be Leahy’s first conference appearance since he retired from Airbus, where he was COO-Customers.

Plane Truths: The Next 12 Months focuses only on the key issues coming up in the next year. Click here for more information.

Officials of American Airlines, Cargolux, HiFly, Rolls-Royce, Skyworks Capital, Collateral Verifications, Embraer and Bombardier are among those who will participate.

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More than 1,000 orders, commitments from Farnborough

July 23, 2018: More than 1,000 new orders and commitments were announced at the Farnborough Air Show last week, a final tally shows.

The value was more than $128bn.

Credit Suisse issued its post-air show note today with a complete listing.

Orders announced previously but were listed as Unidentified until the air show were not included.

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First mover or not, that is the question: A321XLR vs NMA

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Introduction

July 23, 2018, © Leeham News: First mover or not first mover, that is the question.

In a pre-Farnborough Air Show interview with another publication, Airbus Group CEO Tom Enders said Airbus had the advantage of being the “first mover” by acquiring majority control of the Bombardier C Series program.

But when it comes to responding to the prospective Boeing New Midmarket Airplane (NMA, or 797), Airbus officials say they are content to wait and watch, willing to let Boeing make the first move.

At the same time, Airbus is proceeding with studies to further extend the range of the A321neo, in the form of the A321XLR. The airplane would have a range of 4,500nm, up from 4,100nm, according to information widely leaked at the air show.

Summary
  • Airbus looks to squeeze Boeing from the bottom of the NMA market with A321neo improvements.
  • Boeing sales chief dismisses A321XLR as a sub-set of a sub-set.
  • But others see the basic A321 design as more flexible than the 737 MAX.
  • Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury

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Pontifications: Digital transformation picks up steam

By Scott Hamilton

July 23, 2018, © Leeham News, Farnborough: Digital technology, Blockchain, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Thread and Digital Factory technologies continue to gain momentum for aerospace production as companies throughout the supply chain strive to cut costs.

The consulting firm Accenture, in advance of the international air shows in Paris or Farnborough, identifies that it sees as the key stories that will come out of the show.

Accenture was on target for Farnborough.

Indeed, the show was low energy, with fewer orders than many past shows. The largest orders came from that ubiquitous company, Unidentified (though more than 200 airplanes are believed to be destined for China).

Some companies sent smaller delegations or didn’t come at all.

The headline out of United Technologies was about digital. It was just one example of the digital stories at Farnborough this year.

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Farnborough: Day 4 orders

July 19, 2018, (c) Airfinance Journal: Announcements at today’s show followed the same pattern as earlier in the week a fair amount of undisclosed orders. The first three days of the air show saw 292 aircraft orders undisclosed.

Of today’s total, undisclosed orders represented 125 Airbus and Boeing aircraft, while AirAsia X, Hawaiian Airlines, Vietjet and lessor Novus Aviation Capital announced commitments for 108 aircraft.

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Farnborough: A320 engine suppliers roughly on recovery plan

July 19, 2018, © Leeham News, Farnborough: The engine suppliers for the Airbus A320 family are roughly keeping to their recovery plan designed to catch up late deliveries and fix technical problems, a top official said this week.

Guillaume Faury, is the new president and CEO of the Airbus Commercial unit in Airbus Group.

“We look at short-term, medium- and long-term. Short-term, we had an H1 (first half) that was OK for all programs, but the single-aisle was a difficulty with all the engines. We will have a very strong H2 and this is obviously very high on my agenda.

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US seeks arbitration for Boeing “harm” in WTO subsidies case

July 19, 2018, © Leeham News, Farnborough: Without fanfare and with no announcement from Boeing or the US Trade Representative, an official request has been filed with the World Trade Organization to commence arbitration in the 14-year trade dispute between the US and Europe over subsidies to Airbus.

In a short filing Friday, as the international press and international aviation community moved to Farnborough for the 2018 international air show, the US filed its request to begin arbitration.

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