Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Boeing 757 MAX: why its operating economics does not work
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Feb 12, 2015: In a series of articles during the autumn we covered the replacement scenarios for Boeing’s 757-200 when used for long haul passenger operations. The series also included an interview with Boeing’s head of new airplane studies, Kourosh Hadi, director of product development at Boeing where he outlined what Boeing studied and why.
This week The Wall Street Journal published an article portraying that Boeing seriously considered launching a re-engined 757 as a response to Airbus A321LR. Boeing has since vehemently denied the story and we have given the reasons why it does not make sense for Boeing.
As a complement we show the operational economical analysis that we did at the time of our 757 articles, now updated to the exact modifications suggested by The WSJ, a new engine and new winglets paired with modern avionics.
Regional operations with the Turboprop, prop-jet or Jet
- We examined the future of turboprop airliners Jan. 5, 2015, analyzing the backlogs of Bombardier and ATR–and the ATR overwhelming dominance of the current turboprop sector. This is the second of a series looking at this sector.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
08 Feb 2015: Passenger traffic is growing the world over on a regional, domestic and international level. For domestic and international airlines the choice of mainline transport aircraft is clear today: there are only two vendors, Boeing and Airbus, and they produce similar products.
For regional transportation there is more choice. First of all, one can chose type
of aircraft, turboprop or jet. Within jet, there are several OEMs that are active. The choice in turboprop is more restricted. In practice, the choice stands between the classical turboprop with ATR and a faster type from Bombardier, the Q400 “Prop-Jet” as it is called, as its speed lands between the classical turboprop and regional jet.
The question is, what are the real differences between them in terms of design, passenger comfort and economics and what is the right choice for a market segment? We will take a deeper look into this by analyzing the ATR72 as the classical turboprop, the Bombardier Q400 as the Prop-Jet and CRJ700 as the regional jet.
Summary:
- The ATR72-600, Bombardier Q400 and CRJ700 are all about the same size, around 70-80 seats single class or 60-70 seats dual class.
- They offer different comfort levels, and it is not all about speed.
- In developing the economics in two steps we seek the crossover points between the different types.
Odds and Ends: Real-time flight tracking; LEAP-1A testing
Real-time flight tracking: At last, the airline industry is adopting rules to require real-time flight tracking. ICAO, the international organization governing rules and regulations, approved one to require real time tracking next year. The action is long overdue.
Singapore Airlines has made the decision to begin installing the system sooner.
Initially data will be transmitted at 15 minute intervals but if a flight anomaly occurs, transmissions will occur at one minute intervals. While the system won’t prevent real-time accidents (or hijackings), locating airplanes sooner could save lives if an accident is survivable or accelerate recovery of flight data recorders and cockpit voice recorders to solve an accident sooner and potentially prevent accidents in the future from the results.
LEAP-1A testing: The CFM LEAP-1A, destined for the Airbus A320neo family, is now in flight testing, reports Flight Global.
A350-1000 gets upgrade to 387 seats; we analyse the consequences
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
28 Jan 2015: Exactly one week after the first Airbus A350 started regular service between Doha and Frankfurt with Qatar Airways (on 15th of January), upgrades to the A350 capacity was announced by Airbus in a presentation to German investors. The forthcoming upgrade was hinted to media at Airbus annual press conference two weeks ago by Didier Evrard, Airbus head of programs, but no details were given at the time.
The changes were now spelled out more in detail, including pictures of the changed sections of the cabin. Having known about these changes for some time, we can now present the goals of these changes and make a first assessment of how they affect the competitive positioning of the A350.
Summary:
- The improvement program brings the Cabin-Flex lavatories to the A350 interior catalog, enabling smaller lavatory footprint and thereby increased seating densities.
- Airbus has also reworked galleys around the third and fourth door pairs, thereby freeing up galley area in other parts of the cabin.
- Taken together, Airbus claims an 18 seat improvement for the A350-1000, making it a 387 seater in a two class configuration.
- We apply the changes in our cabin model and examines how this will change the competitive landscape between Airbus A350 models and Boeing’s 787 and 777 families.
First analysis of Mitsubishi Regional Jet, MRJ
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
25 Jan 2015: Japan has not produced a commercial aircraft since 1973, when the last YS-11 twin engined turboprop rolled off the assembly line. The YS-11 was developed by a consortium of Japanese “heavies,” where two are also active in the creation of the MRJ, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Fuji Heavy Industries. This time Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is very much in command as they own 64% of the company set up to develop, assemble and market the aircraft, Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation, Fuji Heavy Industries are working as design consultants this time.
Figure 1. Mitsubishi MRJ90 starting its Pratt & Whitney GTF engines for the first time. Source: Mitsubishi.
The first MRJ prototype has run its engines 10 days ago and is preparing for first flight later in the spring. It is therefore time to take a closer look at the first model, MRJ90, and compare it to its direct competitor, Embraer 175 E2.
Summary:
- The MRJ90 and E-Jet 175 E2 are the same size, around 90 seats single class or 80 seats dual class;
- Both aim for scope clause acceptance at 76 seats despite being to heavy; and
- They are different in their fuselage packaging but surprisingly similar in their capabilities.
Rolls-Royce and the leasing market
By Bjorn Fehrm
22 Jan. 2015: When talking to leasing companies at the annual Growth Frontiers 2015 conference in Dublin, Rolls-Royce is the engine manufacturer that is perceived as the least desirable on their airplanes.
This has no reliability or performance background, Rolls-Royce has a good reputation for producing solid and reliable engines which serves their operators well. It is rather the success of Rolls-Royce’s after market program, TotalCare, which is the at the root of the Leasing companies problems with Rolls-Royce.
Odds and Ends: AirAsia; Philippine Air, Russia defers
AirAsia: Group CEO Tony Fernandes made appearances on international news programs, providing his first interviews away from the direct events surrounding Flight 8501’s crash. Here is a transcript of his interview on Bloomberg News.
The interviews come as the first read-outs of the cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder have been undertaken. Indonesian officials are quoted as saying the alarms overheard on the CVR were “screaming,” a description which has been criticized by some, who point out correctly that alarms don’t “scream.” This is certainly true, but we take a more charitable view about the term. This could be a reflection of English being a second language to the government officials and merely a translation issue.
Regardless, the data seems to confirm early reports that the flight was caught in massive up- and downdrafts that threw the airplane into a stall and out of control. Former NTSB crash investigator told us he believes the airplane went into a tight descending spiral and broke apart when it hit the water.
Philippine Air, Russia deferrals: PAL deferred 38 Airbus narrow- and widebody aircraft, according to this news report. Boeing is in talks to defer deliveries to Russian airlines, according to Bloomberg.