Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising May 5, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 20. May 2, 2025
- Supplier Howmet exceeds expectations despite tariffs May 1, 2025
- Airbus 1Q2025 results: So far, so good, but US tariffs make future results unpredictable May 1, 2025
- Does an Airbus A220-500 need a new wing and engines? May 1, 2025
FAA administrator flies MAX in next step to recertification
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 30, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing is one step closer to recertifying the 737 MAX.
Steve Dickson
Steve Dickson, the administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration, fulfilled a pledge this morning to pilot the MAX as one of the final steps in the recertification process.
The MAX was grounded in March 2019 following the second fatal accident of the airplane in five months.
Dickson said he would not recertify the airplane until he piloted it and was satisfied Boeing redesigned the now-infamous MCAS software that triggered events leading to the two crashes.
HOTR: Rolls 787 engine orders tank last 5 year
By the Leeham News team
Sept. 29, 2020, © Leeham News: Engine orders for Rolls-Royce on the Boeing 787 tanked in the last five years—pre-COVID.
An analysis reveals that over this period, Boeing booked 952 orders for 787. Of these, 755 selected the GEnx. A mere 80 orders were placed with RR. There were 117 orders for which engines were not selected. This gives GE a 90% share of the selected campaigns.
It gets worse.
Of the 80 aircraft that went to Trent 1000, Boeing removed 44 under ASC 606 accounting rules as too shaky to consider firm orders anymore. These include Avianca, Latam, Norwegian Air Shuttle, etc., which either went into bankruptcy or are restructuring as a result of COVID.
Under this scenario, GE’s share is closer to 95% in last five years.
RR’s Trent 1000 on the 787 is a thorn in the company’s side because of serious technical issues that grounded up to 50 aircraft. Groundings began several years ago. RR continues to deal with the financial fall-out. Some customers switched from RR engines to GEnx in follow-on orders for the 787.
Hydrogen, electric and hybrid alternatives not here yet
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 25, 2020, © Leeham News: Commercial aviation has had 70 years to use jet fuel safely. It’s unclear how long it will take to reach the same level of safety with hydrogen, say Boeing.
In a briefing Tuesday, the day after Airbus revealed its hydrogen powered concepts for three potential airliners, the vice president and general manager of product development expressed caution about hydrogen as a fuel source.
Sunset of the Quads, Part 8. The A380, 747-8i and 777-9 compared.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
September 24, 2020, © Leeham News: Airbus was disturbed for decades by Boeing’s rein of the Very Large Aircraft (VLA) airliner segment with the 747. It was determined Boeing used this dominance to outmaneuver Airbus in different situations.
Airbus needed an aircraft in this market segment, bigger and better than Boeing’s. The result was the A380, the world’s largest passenger aircraft. We know how this developed today, where the COVID pandemic finally killed the segment for Very Large Aircraft. But how good was it, and where were the weaknesses?
We compare the A380, 747-8i, and Boeing’s up and coming 777-9 to find out.
Summary
- The A380 outclassed the Boeing 747-400 efficiency-wise, as it was a 30 years younger design.
- The updated 747, the 747-8i narrowed the gap to the A380, but if both could be filled the A380 stayed ahead.
- The 777-9 is 15 years younger in design than the A380, and it shows. It is significantly more economical in operation than the A380.
- Throughout its career, the A380 had a graver problem than its efficiency. It was simply too big for a market that went for frequency instead of large departures.
HOTR: Somewhat stabilizing twin-aisle lease rates
By the Leeham News Staff
Sept. 22, 2020, © Leeham News: Ishka, the UK-based appraisal and consultancy firm, Thursday published its update of values and rents for 5-year old, twin-aisle aircraft. After a significant reduction since the beginning of the year, lease rates seem to be stabilizing.
A lost decade for aircraft manufacturers, suppliers
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Now open to all Readers
Introduction
By Judson Rollins, Bjorn Fehrm & Scott Hamilton
Sept. 21, 2020, © Leeham News: Commercial aviation is facing a lost decade due to COVID.
Yes, most forecasts target 2024-2025 as returning to 2019 passenger traffic and aircraft production levels.
However, LNA in July published its own analysis indicating full recovery may not occur until 2028. Breathless headlines notwithstanding, it will take years for vaccines to be widely available and considered safe by enough of the world’s population. Growing concern about vaccine production and distribution capacity through 2024 underscores this view. Even Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly said earlier this month that business travel might not fully return for a decade.
Indeed, the 2020s may well be a lost decade for aircraft manufacturers and their supply chains.
Summary
- Debt-laden airlines will have little money to order new airplanes
- Interest in re-engined 787, A350 likely nil this decade
- Airbus, Boeing, Embraer have little interest in launching new programs
- Engine makers too financially stretched to develop new designs
- Engineering talent, knowledge will be decimated by inevitable job reductions
- OEMs must “play the long game” at a short-term cost to safeguard their futures
Sunset of the Quads, Part 7, The A380
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
All Nippon Airways’ Flying Honu A380 livery
Sep. 17th, 2020, © Leeham News: Last week, we compared the economics of the A340-600 and the 777-300ER on the Los Angeles to Shanghai route. We now turn our attention to the last major bet on a quad-engine aircraft, Airbus’ Superjumbo A380.
Summary
- An extended market study to go after the Queen of the Skies;
- Supersized launch and development;
- A program on life support for several years;
- What went wrong;
- Analyzing two-stage Boeing response on a trunk route.
HOTR: Adjusting Airbus and Boeing orderbooks
By the Leeham News Staff
Sept. 15, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing has removed hundreds of 737 MAX orders from its order book. While some were direct cancellations from customers, most came through ASC 606 adjustments.
Airbus does not publish such order adjustments by aircraft program in its monthly order and deliveries report. The European OEM publishes a total outstanding amount of contracts for commercial aircraft in its annual reports. However, the figure does not have a breakdown by program.
As a result, Airbus and Boeing order books aren’t an apple to apple comparison. The COVID-induced traffic slump has had a significant impact on airlines’ financial situation. Therefore, adjusting order books is necessary to assess an aircraft program’s backlog situation.
Pontifications: Boeing SC makes its case for 787 production consolidation—and it favors Everett
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 14, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing’s South Carolina 787 final assembly plant has made its case whether to consolidate production in one location, or not.
The conclusion favors retaining dual assembly lines, retaining one in Everett.
This click-bait lead doesn’t mean Boeing SC management favors retaining dual assembly lines. Far from it.
Sunset of the Quads, Part 6. The A340-600 versus the 777-300ER.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
September 10, 2020, © Leeham News: The Airbus A340-600 was designed to challenge Boeing’s hold of the large, long-haul jets. With a capacity 60 seats above the previous largest Airbus jet, the A340-300, and a 7,500nm range, it should put Airbus firmly on the long-haul map.
The A340-600 would be flying its 350 passengers as long and for a lower cost than the 20 seats larger Boeing 747-400, the then-largest long-haul Boeing jet. It would have worked hadn’t Boeing upgraded the 777-300 to the 777-300ER and surpassed the spec. How much better did that make the 777-300ER when it arrived in 2004?
Summary
- The A340-600 could take almost as many passengers as the Boeing 747-400 and fly these to the same distance.
- In addition, it loaded more LD3 cargo containers and burned only three-quarters of the fuel of a 747-400.
- But the advantage of the A340-600 was shortlived. Only two years later Boeing responded with the 777-300ER which bettered the Airbus on almost all accounts.