July 15, 2016, ©. Leeham Co, Farnborough Air Show: We have been at Farnborough Air Show this week, the highlight of the year for an aircraft geek like me. This year there were several interesting aircraft that visited the show for the first time.
Embraer brought over the brand new first prototype of the E-jet 190-E2 and the prototype of their military transporter, the KC-390. Bombardier had their first customer/production CS100 from Swiss to visit the show in addition to their Flight Test Vehicle (FTV) no 5. And Lockheed Martin had the F35B, the vertical landing version, come and hover over the airfield the days that were reasonably rain free in the afternoon.
One thing is clear with the new generation of Single Aisle aircraft: their high bypass engines dominate the visual appearance. Figure 1 shows the 73 inch version of the Pratt & Whitney GTF on the E190-E2 prototype. Huge diameter engine on a not so huge diameter aircraft.
Posted on July 15, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 14, 2016, ©. Leeham Co, Farnborough Air Show: The company Antonov is world renowned for its rugged transport aircraft. The recent An-124 Ruslan and An-225 Mriya super-heavy transporters are the world’s largest transport aircraft. Both fly daily for the Antonov companies own airline, transporting outsize cargo for companies like Boeing, Airbus, GE, Rolls-Royce and others.
The air freighter company is what keeps Antonov afloat, for it has been hit hard by the fall of the Soviet Union and Ukraine’s decision to split with the Russian Federation and orient itself to the West. Read more
Posted on July 14, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm
July 11, 2016, © Leeham Co., Farnborough Air Show: The war of words between Airbus and Boeing is legendary, and it continued unabated today, the first day of the Farnborough Air Show.
Boeing continue its refrain during its press briefing that its airplanes are better than Airbus. Airbus returned fire moments later in its own press conference that followed Boeing’s.
But the more interesting war that is emerging is between Embraer and Bombardier.
Posted on July 11, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Subscription Required
Introduction
July 4, 2016, © Leeham Co: The Farnborough Air Show begins next Monday and predictably, focus will be on orders.
With new airplanes from Airbus and Boeing past their development stages, conventional wisdom says there won’t be much new in this arena.
Don’t be so sure.
Bombardier is now on an upward trajectory, but don’t look for a big splash at #FIA16 (for those looking for this year’s Twitter handle). Embraer will have its E190-E2 at the show.
It’s Boeing’s 100th Anniversary and the company is rolling out the history for the show.
Summary
Posted on July 4, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Subscription Required
Introduction
June 27, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The Farnborough Air Show (FIA16) is closely watched for orders placed with Airbus, Boeing and to a much lesser extent, Bombardier and Embraer. Orders are the headline grabbers and are viewed as indicative to the health of commercial aviation going forward in the near- and mid-term.
But the consulting firm Accenture, in an interview with LNC says there are other benchmarks to watch for at FIA16.
Summary
Posted on June 27, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Note: LNC begins today a weekly synopsis of select analyst notes we receive in the previous seven days.
Highlights:
Posted on June 15, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Note: United Technologies Corp (UTC) is holding its annual Media Days today and tomorrow. We’re providing reporting from the event. This is the first time in our long participation that UTC Aerospace Systems is presenting. UTAS is a major supplier and service provider to all the airframe OEMs.
June 6, 2016: UTC Aerospace Systems is just four years old, following mergers with
Hamilton Sundstrand and Goodrich–the largest in aerospace history, says Dave Gitlin, president of UTC Aerospace Systems.
UTAS provides electrical power and bleed air systems, engine, starters, power systems, all the circulating fans on the Boeing 787, monitoring systems and much more. Evacuation slides, the Ram Air Turbines, landing gear, flaps and slat control systems, brakes and thrust reversers.
Posted on June 6, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
May 30, 2016, © Leeham Co.: We at Leeham Co. and Leeham News and Comment take some risk when we make analyses, forecasts, projections and predictions. These often put us out on a limb, open us to criticism and even ridicule and as often as not really pisses off those companies that are the target of such predictions.
Some recent events and news stories caught my eye that validated something I predicted eleven years ago.
First, the set up.
Posted on May 30, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Delta Air Lines, E-Jet, Embraer, Pontifications, United Airlines
717, 737-10, 737-7, 737-7.5, 737-700, 737-7X, 737-8, 747-400, 747-8, 777, 777 Classic, 777X, A320, A350, Airbus, Boeing, CS300, Delta Air Lines, E190, Embraer, John Leahy, MAX 10, MAX 200, MAX 7.5, MAX 8, Midway Airport, Moody's, Ray Conner, Tom Wiliams, United Airlines
E190-E2 is now Airborne #E2firstflight pic.twitter.com/iohoSUKZET
— Embraer (@embraer) May 23, 2016
May 24, 2016: Embraer’s E190-E2 had its first flight yesterday, several months ahead of the internal schedule (original plan was September) making it the only new airplane program in recent history to be significantly ahead. Boeing’s 737 MAX was on time or a day or two early for its first flight.
The E2 is Embraer’s entry into the next phase of the E-Jet development, It’s powered by the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine. The airplane has new wings, new empennage, enclosed main gear, a digital Fly-By-Wire (FBW) and other improvement over what is now called the E1.
The flight was remarkably productive as the crew could fly the test aircraft’s envelope to M 0.82 and 41,000 ft, which is the aircraft’s max speed/altitude. The crew also flew the FBW in Normal mode (includes augmentations and protections) after having started in Direct mode, a more normal mode for a first flight.
What was achieved was far more than what is usual in a first flight. It shows a high confidence in the aerodynamic and structural design of the aircraft and the maturity of the FBW. The concern when testing higher speeds/altitudes is the flutter risk for the new wing and empennage, a very dangerous aerodynamic/structural oscillation that can destroy the parts. Embraer must have advanced its flight test technology as well to clear the flutter envelope in real time during the flight.
Paulo Cesar Silva, the CEO of Embraer Commercial, told us that the E2 is “100% on time and 100% on budget” during our interview for our column at Forbes on-line in which he characterized Bombardier as a “government-owned” company.
The E190-E2 is scheduled to enter service in the first half of 2018. The larger E195-E2 follows by a year and the smaller E175-E2 a year after that.
Egyptair 804
Posted on May 24, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
By Bjorn Fehrm
3 May 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Embraer has made a good start to 2016. Group revenue for 1Q2016 was $1,309m compared to $1,056m 1Q2015, up 24% year on year. EBIT was $86m compared with $80m a year ago, giving a margin of 7.5%.
The major increase in revenue was for the Business jet side which delivered 23 aircraft compared to 11 1Q2015. Commercial aircraft increased with one aircraft to 21 deliveries.
The commercial aircraft side sold 23 E175-E2 in the quarter giving a Book-to-Bill of 1.1. Sales for the Business Jets side was not publicized. Group order backlog was $21.9b compared to $20.4b for 1Q2015. The balance sheet is strong with $1,854m in cash and total debt of $2,389m.
The group’s only problem area is domestic state demand. Its KC-390 military transport program has stopped once for lack of Government payments and it risks being caught again in the problems of the Brazilian state economy.
Here the details of the financial results for the divisions and their aircraft programs. Read more
Posted on May 3, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm