Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing’s 737 North Line and the Everett factory: in transition now June 9, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
The future small twin-aisle market
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
July 21, 2022, © Leeham News: As outlined in the previous article, there are now only 46 orders for twin-aisle aircraft seating 250 or fewer passengers in long-haul cabin configuration (39 Boeing 787-8s and seven Airbus A330-800s). After adjusting for orders at risk, the tally is 28.
However, there are more than 700 older-generation aircraft in service in this segment. The lack of airline and lessor orders points to an inadequate OEM offering. Boeing is not eager to build 787-8s due to the lack of commonality with the other Dreamliner variants. Airbus’ A330-800 has meaningfully worse economics than the -900.
Among the several aircraft concepts Boeing is currently studying, a twin-aisle aircraft with up to 5,000 nautical miles nominal range for this market segment is among them.
LNA analyses in this article the addressable market for small twin-aisle aircraft.
Summary
- The addressable replacement market;
- New order opportunities;
- The impact of growth assumptions;
- Substitution effects and freighter market.
Assessing future twin-aisle production rates
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
July 18, 2022, © Leeham News: There were 98 twin-aisle passenger aircraft deliveries in 2021, the lowest number since 1987 (90). The 2021 tally was down 73% compared to the peak of 362 deliveries in 2015.
Credit: Boeing
The minimal number of Boeing 787 Dreamliner deliveries in 2021 explains why 2021 twin-aisle passenger deliveries fell so low. However, the twin-aisle passenger market slowed down before the Covid-19 pandemic. The travel restrictions imposed during the pandemic brought long-haul traffic to levels last seen in the 1950s at the start of the jet age.
With international travel restrictions progressively lifting, long-haul traffic is gradually recovering. However, the draconian travel restrictions imposed by China and the closure of the Russian airspace to numerous airlines have slowed down the return of demand.
Airbus and Boeing reduced passenger twin-aisle production rates to a minimal: five per month on the A350 and 787 (before the production issues) and two per month on the A330neo. Boeing stopped producing 777-300ERs, with one unit pending delivery to China Southern Airlines. The extensive 777X production delays led Boeing to halt its production.
In its 2021 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), Boeing envisioned a market for 7,670 passenger twin-aisle deliveries over the 2021-2040 period.
LNA analyses the size of the passenger twin-aisle market, both for replacement and growth. The goal is to assess the range of possible twin-aisle production rates over the next two decades.
Summary
- Outlining the analysis hypothesis;
- Assessing production rates for replacements;
- An outsized impact of growth assumptions;
- Geopolitical and environmental considerations;
- A segment with more uncertainty.
Dual or Single Aisle for Long-haul?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
July 14, 2022, © Leeham News: What is the most economical way to fly long-haul up to the range of the Airbus A321XLR? The single-aisle alternative or stay with the trusted widebody?
The intuition says the single-aisle must be lower cost and, therefore, return better margins, given the same ticket prices for equal comfort seats. But is this true? We use the Leeham airliner performance and economic model to find out.
Summary
- When comparing single-aisle and widebodies, it’s important to equalize the cabin standards.
- There are also differences in cruise speeds and, therefore, flight times.
Sustainability progress “depends on where you snap the line”
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By Scott Hamilton
July 11, 2022, © Leeham News: When it comes to sustainable aviation, what’s real and what’s greenwashing, “it depends on where you snap the line,” says a managing director at the consultancy Accenture.
John Schmidt heads up Accenture’s Aerospace and Defense Global Industry consultancy. Schmidt briefed LNA ahead of the Farnborough Air Show, which begins next week.
The background
John Schmidt
At the Annual General Meeting of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in Boston last October, IATA adopted a 2050 timeline goal for meeting targets to reduce aviation emissions. Tim Clark, the president and COO of Emirates Airline was on the panel with Stan Deal and Guillaume Faury, the CEOs of Boeing Commercial Airplanes and Airbus Group. The panel outlined goals for using Sustainable Aviation Fuel and reducing CO2 emissions, among other things. Clark, however, warned, “Don’t make promises you can’t keep.”
In a previous interview with LNA, Clark estimated the commercial aviation industry will need trillions of dollars to meet the 2050 goal. It’s money the industry doesn’t have. This begs the question: is there a certain amount of greenwashing going on?
Best business; Under-floor Cargo or Dedicated Freighter. Part 4.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
July 7, 2022, © Leeham News: What is the best business? To transport cargo below the floor in passenger airliners or dedicated freighter aircraft?
We dug deeper into the cost of flying air freight from Shanghai to Denver last week, forwarded as a below-floor pallet on a passenger jet or via a dedicated freighter.
The cost advantage changed from passenger jet to freighter when we looked deeper into the allocatable cost. Now we finish by analyzing why cargo airlines are consistently more profitable than passenger airlines.
Summary
- Freight airlines generate lower margins from operations than passenger airlines.
- Still, they are more profitable. We explain how.
What Boeing needs to do for digital, production transformation for new commercial airliner
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By Scott Hamilton
Greg Hyslop. Credit: Leeham News.
July 4, 2022, © Leeham News: When Boeing launches its next new commercial airplane program, whatever the design, advanced development, and production are intended to be a key part of the plan.
Officials have been hinting at this approach since the administration of CEO Jim McNerney. His successor, Dennis Muilenburg, opened the veil a bit more. David Calhoun, Muilenburg’s successor, has been more open about the concept.
Last month, Greg Hyslop, the executive vice president of Engineering, Test & Technology and the chief engineer for Boeing, was the most revealing yet. In a briefing in advance of the Farnborough Air Show that begins on July 18, detailed how digital design and advanced production will fit into the Next Boeing Airplane (NBA) plan.
Related Article
Boeing’s new approach to aircraft design, production, and assembly is illustrated above. The Defense unit used this for the T-7 Red Hawk trainer and the MQ-25 unmanned Navy refueling tanker. But a lot of work is necessary to migrate this to Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Credit: Boeing.
However, Hyslop acknowledged that these advanced design and production processes must transition from low-rate defense projects to high-rate commercial airplanes. This is the “maturity” Boeing CEO said recently is required before the NBA proceeds.
Summary
- Scalability is key to migrating digital and production transformation from defense to commercial.
- Lessons learned from 787 an important step.
- Rebuilding the workforce also required for the next new Boeing airplane.
Best business; Under-floor Cargo or Dedicated Freighter. Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 30, 2022, © Leeham News: What is the best business? To transport cargo below the floor in passenger airliners or dedicated freighter aircraft?
We analyzed the cost of flying air freight from Shanghai to Denver last week. It was forwarded as a below-floor pallet or on a dedicated freighter.
We found the allocatable fuel costs were lower when piggybacking on passenger aircraft, but it’s not the whole story. Now we go a level deeper.
Summary
- For fuel costs, the belly cargo alternative was the lower-cost alternative.
- This changed when we added other operational costs.
Boeing’s ecoDemonstrator latest in 10 year effort
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By Scott Hamilton
This Boeing 777-200ER is the latest in the company’s 10-year ecoD program. Credit: Boeing.
June 27, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing’s unveiling of a 777-200ER ecoDemonstrator on June 14 is the latest “ecoD” airplane during the past 10 years in its continuing research for environmentally preferred solutions.
This is the second 777 in the ecoD program. The first was an airplane operated by FedEx. Others were the 737NG, 757, and 737-9 MAX. Each platform hosts a suite of ideas for research to reduce fuel burn, test different airplane and cabin materials and new “environmentally preferred” components, liquids, gases, etc.
Many of the items would not justify stand-alone research, Boeing says. For example, on a previous ecoD, recessed upper and lower rotating beacon lights were part of the technology suite. Also, some ideas aren’t strictly a “thing”, but procedures intended to reduce taxi time, fuel use and concepts to make flying more efficient.
The 777 ecoD unveiled two weeks ago will test a new heads-up display that is worn by the pilots. Heads-up displays have been around for decades. Military aircraft were among the first applications. Alaska Airlines was the first carrier to use them for flights. But these HUDs are mounted above the instrument panels at eye level. Integration into the cockpit is costly and complex. A HUD incorporated into glasses or goggles is one less thing that goes into the cockpit which must be disposed of at a future date.
The new ecoD will also test new taxi procedures intended to reduce fuel burn and emissions.
Summary
- The total life cycle, from “birth” to recycling is part of the drive toward environmentally preferred design and production.
- The jury is still out on whether composites and aluminum at recycling is preferred. But the differences have narrowed.
- There’s a “good chance” Boeing’s next new airplane, whatever it is, will be composite—but it’s not a given. Folding wings may be a feature.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 25P. High Temperature Fuel Cell-based 70-seat airliner. The deeper discussion.
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June 24, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 25, High Temperature Fuel Cell-based 70-seat airliner. It adds the masses and efficiencies of a High Temperature Fuel Cell system to our 70-seat airliner fuel cell variants.
Best business; Under-floor Cargo or Dedicated Freighter. Part 2.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 23, 2022, © Leeham News: What is the best business: to transport cargo below the floor in passenger airliners or with dedicated freighter aircraft?
We could see in last week’s article that air freight companies have generally been more profitable over the last decade than passenger airlines. Why?
We continue the analysis by looking at the cost of flying cargo in passenger airliner bellies versus dedicated freighters.
Summary
- At today’s high fuel prices, transporting cargo in a passenger aircraft’s belly is cheaper than on freighters when we do a first-level analysis.
- Does this change when we go deeper?