Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
Boeing needs 737 replacement launch by 2026 if not sooner
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Nov. 9, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing needs hundreds of new orders for the 737 MAX and/or a new replacement program launch by 2026, if not sooner.
An analysis shows that 737 deliveries tank by 2028.
This isn’t just about the 737-10 and 737-9, which don’t fare well against the Airbus A321neo. The shrinking backlog is the problem.
Ryanair’s CEO, Michael O’Leary, said last week Boeing will delay delivery/entry into service of the 737-10 MAX by up to two years.
This largely stated the obvious.
The first 10 MAX rolled out of the factory Nov. 22 last year. It could not enter flight testing because the MAX family was grounded March 13. The MAX remains grounded. Recertification may come this month, but it appears more likely next month.
Boeing 737-10. Source: Boeing.
This delays the start of flight testing until probably January. This is a 14-month delay.
Flight testing will take a year to 15 months, or to January to March 2022—about two years after the planned EIS. Boeing’s production ramp up will further impact delivery of the 10 MAX.
Although some recent new focus was on the 10 MAX, the larger issue is the entire 737 family.
Summary
- Production ramp up will be slow.
- Inventory will take two years to clear.
- Airline demand is poor the next 2-3 years.
- Boeing’s breadwinner sees major delivery drop from 2026.
- A further drop by 2028 demonstrates need for a 737 replacement—not just an A321 competitor.
Enhancing the Dreamliner, Part 5: 787-10
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Nov. 5, 2020, © Leeham News: After analyzing the 787-9, we now turn our attention to the last Dreamliner variant that entered into service, the -10.
The 787-10 was developed as a minimum change stretch of the 787-9. Keeping it at the same gross weight as the 787-9 meant it could share the same wing and landing gear, yet offer a higher capacity. The longer fuselage meant higher empty weight and drag so the range of the -10 was cut compared with the other Dreamliners.
Summary
- Maximizing commonality by trading range for volume;
- Limited near-term replacement market;
- A case for further enhancements;
- Payload limitations on a long-haul route.
Enhancing the Dreamliner, Part 4: the 787-9 analyzed.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
October 29, 2020, © Leeham News: We look deeper at the 787-9, the most successful member of the Dreamliner family. It’s 50 seats larger than the 787-8 but shares the same wing dimensions and engines.
The 787-9 quickly overtook the smaller 787-8 in sales and deliveries once its performance was clear to the airlines.
By following on the 787-8 it could benefit from many enhancements in design and production, becoming a very efficient aircraft in the process. To check its efficiency we run the 787-9 against its predecessor, the Boeing 777-200ER, on the San Francisco to Sydney route and look at the data.
Summary
- The 787-9 enjoyed all the improvements that came to light when developing the 787-8. The result is one of the most efficient twin-aisle aircraft on the market.
- Why it’s popular with the airlines becomes evident when we compare with the aircraft it replaces, the 777-200ER.
Public data doesn’t support Airbus A320 production rate hike
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Introduction
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 26, 2020, © Leeham News: Airbus’ 3Q2020 earnings call is Wednesday. News emerged last week the OEM is notifying supplies that they should be prepared to increase production of the A320 from 40/mo to 47/mo in the second half of next year.
It is worthwhile looking at the delivery skyline as it currently exists.
Summary
- Forecasted delivery stream doesn’t support rat 47/mo until 2024.
- Airbus appears to be banking on faster recovery from COVID—or
- Picking up market share from Boeing.
Enhancing the Dreamliner, Part 3: 787-9
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Oct. 22, 2020, © Leeham News: After analyzing the 787-8, we now turn our attention to the following Dreamliner variant that entered into service, the -9.
Summary
- Lessons learned from 787-8 mishaps;
- A resounding commercial success;
- Some in-service drawbacks;
- Competition limits pricing power;
- An ultra-long-haul route.
Twin Aisle Deliveries: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Oct. 19, 2020, © Leeham News: LNA published last week an update on the latest 737 MAX production and delivery plans. This week, we turn our attention to the twin-aisle programs at Airbus and Boeing.
Both OEMs announced significant monthly production rate reductions earlier this year: the Dreamliner will go to six next year. The Airbus A350 is at five per month, while the A330 and Boeing 777 are at two. Airbus and Boeing will publish their third-quarter earnings later this month, which could include updated production rates.
LNA investigates the implications of the updated production and delivery plans for twin-aisle programs at Airbus and Boeing.
Summary
- Two programs in acceptable shape;
- Awaiting an elusive return to favor later this decade;
- A lack of healthy customers make the situation critical;
- Summing it all up with one metric.
Enhancing the Dreamliner, Part 2: The 787-8 analyzed
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
October 15, 2020, © Leeham News: We look deeper at the 787-8, the smallest member of the Dreamliner family. After selling well initially, it has fallen out of favor with the airlines.
We analyze why by comparing it with its more successful sister, the 787-9. The 787-8 and -9 were conceived together, with the -8 as the first birth to be quickly followed by a longer version, the 787-9.
With the troubles of the program, it took three years before the longer 787 was ready. By then it was in many ways a different aircraft than the 787-8.
Summary
- The 787-8, as the first aircraft in the 787 Dreamliner series had to crack the brunt of the program’s many problems.
- As a result, it ended up with first try solutions in many areas where the latter 787-9 could gain from the experience and use improved designs.
- We analyze what this means for the economy for the 787-8, both from an operational and manufacturing standpoint.
Resuming Boeing 737 MAX deliveries
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By Vincent Valery and Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Oct. 12, 2020, © Leeham News: The latest developments suggest that the FAA could lift the Boeing 737 MAX grounding by the end of November. The grounding lasted far longer than most industry insiders and Boeing expected.
Simultaneously, Boeing is working around the clock to get the ~460 737 MAXes produced since March 2019 ready for delivery to customers. The task became more complex as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak. Operators that previously couldn’t get 737 MAXes fast enough don’t need the extra capacity anytime soon.
Numerous airlines are in a precarious financial situation and won’t be willing or able to take new aircraft. Several lessors canceled near-term orders, while airlines are negotiating delivery delays.
With that in mind, LNA analyzes the most up-to-date delivery and production plans for the 737 MAX in future years.
Summary
- Deliveries stretched into the future;
- Ambitiously clearing inventory, then ramping-up production;
- One variant represents the bulk of deliveries; and
- Near-term deliveries by customer.
Enhancing the Dreamliner, Part 1: the 787-8
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Oct. 8, 2020, © Leeham News: The Dreamliner program is approaching its 1000th delivery less than 10 years after entry into service. It is the fastest-ever delivery ramp-up for any twin-aisle program.
However, the milestone will feel bittersweet due to the upcoming production rate cuts (to six per month from 14) and the decision to close the Everett final assembly line and concentrate final assembly to South Carolina.
As outlined several times before, air travel recovery in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak will take years. Long-haul markets, which the 787 serves, should be last to return to normal.
The above means Boeing will deliver far fewer 787s over the next five years than it envisioned at the beginning of the year. Any significant upgrade of the aircraft is off the table for the foreseeable future. To boost sales and profitability, the American OEM is looking at how to improve its product line at minimal costs.
LNA published an article last month about Boeing’s study into lowering 787-8 production costs.
By the end of August 2020, Boeing had 48, 333, and 145 outstanding orders for the -8, -9, and -10, respectively. LNA estimated the total to be 38, 299, and 145, respectively, after adjusting for orders at risk.
We will, in our series, go through the different models in the product line, their history, and potential for further improvements now that the product line approaches midlife.
Summary
- Significant development problems and delays;
- A compromise(d) design leads to initial limitations;
- Deliveries slowed after post-EIS rush;
- The problem Boeing did not want to address;
- A long-haul route highlights potential enhancements.
Sunset of the Quads, Part 9, Wrap-up
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By Vincent Valery and Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Oct. 1st, 2020, © Leeham News: Last week, we compared the economics of the A380 against the 747-8 and 777-9 on the Frankfurt to New York route. We now wrap-up our series on the significant passenger quad-jets of the last 30 years and how competitive they were against other quads and the twins that gradually took over the very large aircraft segment.
Summary
- A resounding success, a respectable career, and three commercial failures;
- Prospects for a Quad-jet passenger operation in the post-COVID world are slim;
- The next quads will come as low emission technology drives implementations to smaller propulsive units.