Leeham News and Analysis
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Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 9. Engine core advances
By Bjorn Fehrm.
April 21, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a summary of the article New aircraft technologies. Part 9P. Engine core advances. The article discusses how developments for the next-generation airliner engine cores will increase the thermal efficiency of next-generation engines.
Figure 1. The Pratt & Whitney PW1100G engine with its compact core enabled by a geared high RPM design. Source; Pratt & Whitney.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 9P. Engine core advances
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By Bjorn Fehrm
April 21, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 9. Engine core advances. It discusses in detail the next-generation propulsion system cores and what efficiency improvements to expect from different technological advancements.
Pontifications: One “good” engine in future for RR, faulty business strategy and model: JP Morgan
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 7, 2023, © Leeham News: Our report last week about Rolls-Royce’s new CEO characterizing the company in dire straits is just part of the story. Shortly before that, on January 18, JP Morgan issued a 38-page dissection of the company that perfectly encapsulates what LNA has pointed out in the past about its commercial engine business.
Pontifications: New Rolls-Royce CEO paints a dire picture; all scenarios on table at Airbus
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 31, 2023, © Leeham News: Rolls-Royce’s new CEO says the engine group is a “burning platform,” failing to give returns.
Tufan Erginbilgic, who joined RR as CEO on Jan. 1, said this is the “last chance” to get its house in order and turn a profit.
The dire outlook has potentially disastrous implications for Airbus. The airframer relies exclusively on Rolls for its engines for the A350 and A330neo. Airbus is monitoring the situation closely. Market sources tell LNA that Airbus is assuring customers and potential customers that Airbus will make sure engines and aftermarket support are available, without detailing how.
An Airbus insider tells LNA that all scenarios are under consideration. Some speculate that Airbus might either provide financial support to Rolls or even, in the extreme, buy the engine company. Others believe either course is unlikely because Airbus has its own production problems to sort out. Its fiduciary duty is to its stockholders. “It’s not their job to inherit a problem that was created decades ago,” one London-based analyst says.
What’s at the root of RR’s current problems? Many of the reasons have been discussed before, but let’s summarize them.
Pontifications: A lost decade for new airplanes
By Scott Hamilton
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Dec. 5, 2022, © Leeham News: In September 2020, LNA wrote that commercial aviation was facing a “lost decade.”
The impetus for this prediction was the COVID-19 pandemic crisis.
“Commercial aviation is facing a lost decade due to COVID,” we wrote. “Yes, most forecasts target 2024-2025 as returning to 2019 passenger traffic and aircraft production levels. However, LNA in July published its own analysis indicating full recovery may not occur until 2028.”
Nobody predicted that effective vaccines would emerge as quickly as they did. Drug makers in the US and Europe moved heaven and earth to produce vaccines to fight COVID-19. These have been, by and large, extremely effective. (I’ve had two shots and three boosters and have not caught COVID, despite being at one major conference with 13,000 people.)
China created its own vaccine, which failed to stem the tide there. President Xi quickly adopted total lockdowns at the first sign of outbreaks. Despite this, China is now setting records for new infections. Commercial aviation recovery there remains underperforming. China’s performance illustrates the underlying reasoning we had in concluding commercial aviation was facing a lost decade.
This sector still faces a lost decade, though for some fundamentally different reasons.
Engine Development. Part 10. Next generation engines
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
October 20, 2022, © Leeham News: We finish our series about engine development by looking at the next-generation engines and future trends in airliner engine development.
We limit this look forward to engines that burn Jet fuel (Jet-A1 or SAF) as green propulsion solutions are a vast field and justify their own series. We will pick this up at a future date.
The Boeing 777-9, the first airliner with next-generation engines. Source: Boeing.
Summary
- The major reduction in fuel consumption and, thus, CO2 emissions will come from new engines.
- The technologies to drive fuel consumption down a further 15% are there.
Engine Development. Part 8. Throttle push or not?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
October 6, 2022, © Leeham News: The early years of 2000 saw new engine programs launched for the new Boeing 787 Dreamliner and Airbus response, the A350.
Substantial differences in the life of these aircraft programs made the engine programs develop differently. It was about throttle push or not.
Summary
- The Dreamliner engines changed as the 787 programs went through many stages.
- The Airbus A350 program was a standard program in comparison.
Engine Development. Part 7. Engine reliability changes the aircraft market
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
September 29, 2022, © Leeham News: The 1970s saw the introduction of the High Bypass engine for the medium/long range Boeing 747, Douglas DC-10, and Lockheed Tristar, with Airbus A300 employing an updated variant of the DC-10 engine for medium range missions.
In the following decades, these engines introduced improved technology and matured into new levels of reliability. With the increase in reliability came changes in how long-range aircraft were designed.
Figure 1. The Boeing 777-200 was introduced by United Airlines in 1995. Source: Wikipedia.
Summary
- The engine development after the introduction of the high bypass turbofans in the 1970s focused on reliability and higher efficiency rather than new design principles.
- The change in reliability made the two-engined long-range aircraft the winner over three and four-engine aircraft.
Engine Development. Part 6. High Bypass goes mainstream
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
September 22, 2022, © Leeham News: With the introduction of the High Bypass engine for the Boeing 747, Douglas DC-10, and Lockheed Tristar, it was obvious Pratt & Whitney’s low bypass engines on the Boeing 707, 727, 737, and Douglas DC-8, -9 should be attacked with a new High Bypass engine in this thrust class.
French Snecma and GE teamed up to break Pratt & Whitney’s monopoly of the jet engine market outside the widebodies. The CFM56 was born.
Figure 1. The Boeing 737-300, the breakthrough for the CFM56 engine. Source; Wikipedia.
Summary
- With an exclusive fit on the Boeing 737 and a 10-year introduction advantage on the A320, the CFM56 has dominated over the competing IAE V2500.
- The CFM56 is the world’s most produced jet engine, with over 32,000 engines produced to date.