Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
- Tariffs Tumult Takes Over GE Aerospace Q1 2025 Earnings Call April 22, 2025
HOTR: Rolls 787 engine orders tank last 5 year
By the Leeham News team
Sept. 29, 2020, © Leeham News: Engine orders for Rolls-Royce on the Boeing 787 tanked in the last five years—pre-COVID.
An analysis reveals that over this period, Boeing booked 952 orders for 787. Of these, 755 selected the GEnx. A mere 80 orders were placed with RR. There were 117 orders for which engines were not selected. This gives GE a 90% share of the selected campaigns.
It gets worse.
Of the 80 aircraft that went to Trent 1000, Boeing removed 44 under ASC 606 accounting rules as too shaky to consider firm orders anymore. These include Avianca, Latam, Norwegian Air Shuttle, etc., which either went into bankruptcy or are restructuring as a result of COVID.
Under this scenario, GE’s share is closer to 95% in last five years.
RR’s Trent 1000 on the 787 is a thorn in the company’s side because of serious technical issues that grounded up to 50 aircraft. Groundings began several years ago. RR continues to deal with the financial fall-out. Some customers switched from RR engines to GEnx in follow-on orders for the 787.
The engine manufacturers worst hit by the pandemic
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
September 28, 2020, © Leeham News: The worldwide COVID-19 pandemic is shaking the air travel and airliner manufacturing industries like no crisis before.
More than 9/11, the oil crisis of 1973 or 2005 or the financial crisis of 2008. The problems for the airlines and the airframe OEMs are on the front pages of the world’s media.
The part of the airliner industry that is not so visible but is perhaps hardest hit, is the engine industry. Its weird business model amplifies the effects of the crisis.
Summary
- Airframe OEMs lose money on the first hundreds of aircraft produced.
- When they announce “black numbers”, it means the per aircraft losses stop. It doesn’t mean the aircraft program is positive.
- For engine OEMs, it’s worse. They never reach ‘black numbers” on engine production. Their only money makers are old engine programs that fly a lot.
Sunset of the Quads, Part 6. The A340-600 versus the 777-300ER.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
September 10, 2020, © Leeham News: The Airbus A340-600 was designed to challenge Boeing’s hold of the large, long-haul jets. With a capacity 60 seats above the previous largest Airbus jet, the A340-300, and a 7,500nm range, it should put Airbus firmly on the long-haul map.
The A340-600 would be flying its 350 passengers as long and for a lower cost than the 20 seats larger Boeing 747-400, the then-largest long-haul Boeing jet. It would have worked hadn’t Boeing upgraded the 777-300 to the 777-300ER and surpassed the spec. How much better did that make the 777-300ER when it arrived in 2004?
Summary
- The A340-600 could take almost as many passengers as the Boeing 747-400 and fly these to the same distance.
- In addition, it loaded more LD3 cargo containers and burned only three-quarters of the fuel of a 747-400.
- But the advantage of the A340-600 was shortlived. Only two years later Boeing responded with the 777-300ER which bettered the Airbus on almost all accounts.
Sunset of the Quads, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 12, 2020, © Leeham News: We deepen our look at the Queen of the Skies and it’s best selling version, the 747-400.
We go through what made it the great aircraft it was and why Qantas replaced it on its trunk routes to the US West coast.
We pick Los Angeles to Sydney as the benchmark route, a route on the range limit for the 747-400, and check how it stacks up economically versus the A380, its replacement.
Summary
- The 747-400 reigned the skies for 15 years, combining a trans-Pacific range with a good passenger and cargo capacity.
- Once Boeing introduced the 777-300ER and Airbus the A380, the 747-400’s ruling of the skies was over. It trailed in both capacity and efficiency.
- It continued in operation until today with many airlines, still a useful aircraft for long and dense routes as long as the fuel prices stayed low.
Restoring capacity with the A330ceo or A330neo, Part 6, Wrapup.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
July 23, 2020, © Leeham News: Over the last four weeks, we analyzed the venerable Airbus A330, to see if the present low fuel and lease prices make the recent A330neo version less attractive than an older ceo version.
As airlines are cash injection driven in the present COVID-19 crisis, taking delivery of a new aircraft and then do a sell, lease back deal injects fresh cash to the airline. The order deposit and the Pre-Delivery-Payments, PDPs, then flows back to the airline. This is why we see airlines take new aircraft despite not really needing them right now.
The A330 has seen phenomenal growth in capability as the Gross Weight has gone from 212t to 251t over the years. We now wrap the series by looking if there is potential for another stretch in the A330? Could it grow to a true Pacific-Ocean crosser, and if so, what changes should be made?
Summary
- The A330neo now has a 251t Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW). Is this enough or could the aircraft gain from another MTOW hike?
- We go through the gains and the areas that need changing should the business case be there to stretch the payload-range curve further for the A330neo.
Restoring capacity with the A330ceo or A330neo, Part 4
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
July 9, 2020, © Leeham News: Last week, we started the analysis of restoring capacity with the Airbus A330-300 or the A330-900 when reopening international traffic after the COVID-19 lockdown.
As we did with the A330-200 versus the A330-800, we fly them side by side between Paris Charles de Gaulle and Sao Polo’s Guarulhos airports. It’s a 13-hour flight with maximum freight in the cargo bays to gain revenue in addition to our part full cabin.
Will the payload-range of the A330-300 or A330-900 be sufficient to load the aircraft for maximum revenue on the route? We use our airliner performance model to find out.
Summary
- The A330-300 has gradually got more range as the Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW) has grown. The example highlights the limitations that still exits in this model of the A330.
- The A330-900 adds another nine tonnes MTOW over the highest MTOW A330-300. To what extent does it fix the A330-300 limitations on this route?
Restoring capacity with the A330ceo or A330neo, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 25, 2020, © Leeham News: Last week, we started looking at the Airbus A330-200 market and whether to hold on to one’s A330-200 or restoring capacity after the COVID-19 shut-down with the newer A330-800.
We looked at the history of the A330-200, the reasons it sold 642 units to date, and why the sequel, the A330-800, is not selling well.
We dig deeper into the replacement question today. In a post-pandemic world, is holding on to or even leasing an A330-200 for long-range operations the better alternative, or should we take delivery of a new A330-800?
Summary
- The A330-200 was Airbus’ best aircraft for long and thin routes.
- As the A330-300 and later A330-900 grew its range, the A330-200 and A330-800 market shrunk.
- For long and thin routes, is keeping/leasing an A330-200 or taking delivery of an A330-800 the better alternative?
Looking ahead for 2020 and 2030 decades: Airbus
First in a series of reports.
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By Scott Hamilton and Vincent Valery
June 17, 2020, © Leeham News: Airbus was riding high in February.
The A321XLR was a clear winner. An important order was won from United Airlines, up to then an exclusive Boeing narrowbody customer. American Airlines selected the XLR. An order was expected from Delta Air Lines.
Each order was another that made it impossible for Boeing to launch the New Midmarket Airplane (NMA).
In one of his first actions, Boeing CEO David Calhoun, taking office Jan. 13, put the NMA on indefinite hold, pending a complete review of Boeing’s product strategy.
The Boeing 737 MAX remained grounded by regulators, with no return to service in sight.
The Airbus A321XLR. This 9-hour capable airplane helps fragment routes–and soften demand for widebody aircraft. Source: Airbus.
Things couldn’t be going better for Airbus.
And then in mid-March, the COVID crisis became a global pandemic. Air transportation fell up to 95%. Airlines required government bailouts. Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said the very existence of Airbus was threatened.
Summary
- COVID’s impact.
- A320 family ‘s commanding lead over Boeing.
- A220 commands low-end of single-aisle sector.
- A330neo is the weak link.
- Looking ahead in product strategy.
Embraer’s Slattery named CEO of GE Aviation
By Scott Hamilton
June 15, 2020, © Leeham News: John Slattery, the CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation, was named CEO of GE Aviation, it was announced today.
John Slattery
Arjan Meijer is the new President and CEO succeeding Slattery. Slattery succeeds David Joyce, who is retiring. Slattery’s appointment is effective July 13.
Slattery devoted much of the last year trying to win approval of the proposed Boeing-Embraer joint venture, Boeing Brasil-Commercial. Boeing terminated the agreement April 25, claiming Embraer failed to meet all required terms and conditions. Embraer claims it met the conditions. Both took the dispute to arbitration.
Slattery had been designated CEO of Boeing Brasil. After the deal’s collapse, his departure from Embraer was expected.
Pontifications: bleak near- to mid-term future for Rolls-Royce engine unit
By Scott Hamilton
June 15, 2020, © Leeham News: The jet engine division of Rolls-Royce faces an uncertain future because of its own problems, exacerbated by the impact of COVID-19 on commercial airlines.
Beset by problems with its Trent 1000, Boeing 787 engine, hampered by a huge error in judgment to withdraw from a joint venture with Pratt & Whitney, beset by the premature termination of the Airbus A380 program and now facing a long-term impact of the coronavirus crisis, Rolls is an engine maker with few opportunities.