Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
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Boeing looks to produce about 220 MAXes in 2020
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 30, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing appears preparing to produce around 220 737 MAXes this year.
Spirit AeroSystems announced this morning that it reached agreement with Boeing to supply 220 fuselages in 2020.
The actual number of MAXes Boeing produces this year may vary from 220. It could well be that some of the 2020 fuselage deliveries spill over into 2021 deliveries.
Boeing tells union: MAX production halt “weeks;” others see months
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By Scott Hamilton and Byran Corliss
Introduction
Dec. 23, 2019, © Leeham News: The Boeing 737 MAX production shut down will be measured in “weeks,” Boeing told one of its unions.
But “weeks” is a highly open-ended description.
One supplier estimated for LNA that the suspension will be at least 60-90 days.
An aerospace analyst sees the halt lasting 3-6 months at a minimum.
Boeing 737 MAXes stored at Boeing Field. Source: Seattle Times.
LNA’s analysis does not see production resuming before the Federal Aviation Administration notifies Boeing that it has a date certain for recertification. It has announced no timeline, although published reports already suggest this could be any time from mid-February to well into March.
But these are speculative dates.
Summary
- Boeing now says that once certification is achieved, delivering from the inventory is a priority over producing new airplanes.
- This raises additional uncertainty over restarting production.
- Spirit Aerosystems has some 90 fuselages in storage.
Read more
Pontifications: Time for Odds and Ends
Sept. 24, 2018, © Leeham News: This week we catch up on Odds and Ends.
Boeing catching up on 737
By Scott Hamilton
Boeing has reversed the number of 737s piling up at Renton Airport and Boeing Field and is starting to burn off the “gliders” and other aircraft plagued by traveled work.
Although some aerospace analysts came away from the investors day this month skeptical that Boeing would clear the backlog by year end, barring another hiccup of size, it looks like the company will do so.
Spirit Aerosystems said it had caught up on the delivery of fuselages while Boeing told aerospace analysts at its investors’ day this month that delays were still causing issues.
How does this conflict of information converge?
It’s a matter of sequencing the fuselages back into the system, I’m told.
Unfinished 737s have peaked, Boeing tells analysts
Sept. 6, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing officials say the parked inventory of 737s has peaked at around 50 aircraft and should come down slowly as traveled work is performed.
Engineless Boeing 737 at the Renton factory. Photo via WoodysAeroImages.
Officials made the comments yesterday at its annual Investors Day for aerospace analysts.
The first two research notes LNC received last night reflected skepticism by Canaccord Genuity and JP Morgan that Boeing will successfully meet its recovery plan by year end.
As more notes were received today, these analysts generally were more receptive to Boeing’s upbeat message.
Boeing confident of 737 recovery by year-end; some analysts express doubt
Sept. 6, 2018, © Leeham News: As incomplete Boeing 737s fill the ramps, taxiways and other available space at Renton Airport and Boeing Field, company officials sought to assure aerospace analysts there is a recovery plan that will see a full complement of deliveries by year-end.
At least two analysts were unconvinced following the annual Boeing Investors Day yesterday.
Boeing 737 MAX awaiting engines, one of dozens of unfinished airplanes at the Boeing Renton plant. Photo via WoodysAeroImages.
In notes issued by Canaccord Genuity and JP Morgan analysts late Wednesday night Seattle time, Kenneth Herbert and Seth Seifman respectively expressed doubt Boeing will meet its 737 delivery target.
Supply chain stress, number of variants challenge 737 production rate hike
March 27, 2018, © Leeham News: Current production rates and complexity in the transition between the Boeing 737 NG and 737 MAX is straining the supply chain 
feeding Spirit Aerosystems, its CEO told a JP Morgan conference March 14.
The supply chain stress makes it challenging to increase production rates. Spirit, which builds the 737 fuselage for Boeing, deployed SWAT teams to key suppliers that are struggling.
Tom Gentile, Spirit’s CEO, did not name the suppliers.
Boeing is going to a production rate of 52/mo this year and 57/mo next year. The company is studying rate hikes up to 70/mo.
The supply chain and production will be among the topics at the Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference June 25-27 in Mobile (AL).
Spirit AeroSystems, the world’s largest aerostructures company
A feature report.
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 15, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Spirit AeroSystems is the world’s largest aerostructures supplier, with main facilities in Wichita (KS). I visited Wichita early March and was given a guided tour of the factories. It was a tour of contrasts.
In production hall two, the Boeing 737 fuselages are riveted together in much the same way as the Boeing B-29 Stratofortress was produced there during World War II. “Rosie the riveter” is replaced with a robot, but the hall still has a busy charm.
Figure 1. Hall two, the main 737 production area. Source: Spirit AeroSystems.
In another hall, the production is silent. The winding of the Boeing Dreamliner’s forward fuselage from rolls of tape is made with a swooshing sound. There are few people around; the machines rule. Everything is mega large; tape-layers, tools, autoclaves, the lot. Read more
Boeing stock sell-off on United news appears misplaced
Nov. 16, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The market sell off yesterday of Boeing stock appeared on the surface to be a reaction to the news that United Airlines is deferring 61 737-700s and switching these to four larger 737-800s and the balance to either the 737-8 or 737-9.
Figure 1. Boeing stock traded down on news that United Airlines is deferring 65 737s. The price stayed flat through early today. But stock for Spirit Aerosystems, which makes the 737 fuselages, recovered after a short dip (Figure 2). This suggests the Boeing sell-off was for other reasons. Click on image to enlarge.
Boeing’s stock today remains flat-to-down slightly.
An odd thing happened concurrent to Boeing’s stock decline.
After a short dip, stock of Spirit Aerosystems recovered to the level before the UAL news and remained there through the time of this writing. Spirit makes the 737 fuselages. If Boeing’s stock was hit by the United decision, then logic suggests Spirit’s stock should have been, too.
This suggests the Boeing’s sell off has other reasons.
11th 737 MAX on the assembly line as Boeing gears up for delivery next year
Oct. 11, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The 11th 737-8 MAX is already on the Boeing production line at the factory in Renton (WA).
Southwest Airlines will receive the first 737 MAX next year. Boeing photo.
This one is for Lion Air, the Indonesian Low Cost Carrier that’s ordered 201 of the airplanes.
Previous 737-8s that already are built are also for LCCs Southwest Airlines of the USA.
The initial line up of customers scheduled to receive the MAXes next year is in stark contrast to decades ago when the names on the sides of the airplanes would be American, United, Lufthansa or Japan Air Lines. It’s illustrative to the changing airline industry.
Fuel prices rising, muted wide-body demand noted by analysts
Oil prices are rising and catching the attention of airline and aerospace analysts. Photo via Google images.
June 22, 2016: Our weekly synopsis of select analyst notes point to increasing fuel costs and weak wide-body demand, among other things, as issues to consider.
Highlights:
- A350 deliveries at risk due to Zodiac supplier issues. (Buckingham.)
- US airline stock is under pressure due to rising fuel prices. (Cowen & Co.)
- Stock for supplier Crane is rising due in part to rising oil prices. (CanaccordGenuity.)
- Global traffic growing at a slower rate than forecast. Wide-body demand muted. (JP Morgan.)
- Production rate increases at Boeing may be challenging. (Wells Fargo.)