Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
With high cargo prices, will airlines fly larger aircraft in their widebody fleets?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
October 14, 2021, © Leeham News: Over the last weeks, we’ve seen that the present cargo crunch and high yields will influence what aircraft variants airlines purchase. Models that are too large passenger-wise for years to come will be paid for by a longer belly that can take more cargo.
This trend will remain as long as cargo prices are high. Will the high cargo yields also affect what aircraft to keep stored and which to fly of an existing fleet? We apply the analysis to an airline with a fleet of Boeing 777s.
Summary
- The increased yields for air cargo changes the fleet planning for the widebody fleet. The most suitable passenger models stay in the desert, and the longer siblings fly despite lower load factors.
The Regional Aircraft Fleet
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Oct. 11, 2021, © Leeham News: The regional aircraft market, defined as aircraft seating 100 or fewer passengers in standard configurations, has fewer OEM players than before.
Embraer’s E175-E2
The Bombardier CRJ, purchased by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, ceased production earlier this year. De Havilland Canada will stop Q400 production later this year once it clears its backlog. Both programs might not start production again in the future.
The only latest-generation design, the E175-E2, does not have a single firm order. (There is a conditional order for 100 from the USA’s SkyWest Airlines.) MHI’s SpaceJet development has been “suspended,” but nobody believes it will be restarted.
Therefore, the only regional aircraft in production for the near future will be ATR’s 42 and 72 series, COMAC’s ARJ21, Embraer’s E175-E1, and UAC’s SSJ100.
The ARJ21 and SSJ100 are almost exclusively in service in their respective domestic markets. In practice, that leaves only the ATR42, ATR72, and E175-E1 as new regional aircraft in production for most operators from next year.
However, it is far from guaranteed that ATR and Embraer will enjoy near-monopoly status for the foreseeable future. Embraer has been pondering the launch of a turboprop program for years and is currently looking for an industrial partner.
One also must mention that potential jet fuel alternatives, notably hydrogen-powered aircraft, are likely to come to the regional market first. Therefore, the regional aircraft market could see some significant changes.
With the above in mind, LNA thought it relevant to look at the in-service regional aircraft, both for regional jets and turboprop aircraft.
Summary
- Segmenting the regional aircraft market;
- Regional jet and turboprop prevalence;
- Breakdown by OEM and operator region;
- Age of in-service fleet.
Pontifications: Biofuels, hydrogen, batteries are nice but far in the future. Solution exists now.
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 11, 2021, © Leeham News: EcoAviation was the Number One topic at the Oct. 3-5 IATA AGM in Boston.
IATA, the International Air Transport Assn., set a number of lofty goals to remove carbon emissions from commercial aviation by 2050. Interim goals were also set.
Tim Clark, the president and COO of Emirates Airline, didn’t mince words about these goals.
“People are expecting us… by the end of this decade, to take out 40% of our emissions… We are in la la land if you think we are going to do this,” Flight Global reported.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 24. Parallel Activities
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca
October 8, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we described how we conduct the Certification Flight Test together with the Regulator.
Before we describe our path to completion of our flight test program, we need to pause for a minute and discuss some of the other parallel activities that need to come together prior to issues of Type Certificate and roll out of production aircraft.
In article 3 you’ll recall we reviewed the breadth of regulatory involvement in aircraft development. While the work on the design and initial airworthiness (on the left in the chart below) is critical, it’s not the only set of rules we need to be working with if we want to achieve a successful Entry Into Service (EIS) of the aircraft.
In Part 21 of our series we already discussed the preparation of the production system. In the next few articles, we’ll be discussing three additional areas of work that we’re engaged in that must all come together at the program’s completion:
Figure 1. The Wymann Shell FAR Chart explains how 14 CFR Parts relate to each other. Source: FAA. Click to read easier.
Is the cargo capacity deciding the airliner variant? Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
October 7, 2021, © Leeham News: In last week’s article, we could see today’s high cargo prices can motivate a 325 seat Airbus A350-900 even though the passenger load on the routes would point to a 240 seat A330-800.
How far does this “paying for a larger aircraft with belly cargo” paradigm go? Today we see if Airbus’ largest aircraft, the A350-1000, can generate the margins of the A350-900 on freight-rich routes. Can an airline that has an A350-900 sized passenger demand for such routes go to an A350-1000 instead?
Summary
- The increased yields for air cargo leads to surprising effects. Oversized passenger models can survive the passenger drought on today’s international routes as long as it’s a route with good freight demand.
Pontifications: Upping the game in eco Aviation
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 4, 2021, © Leeham News: The pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by the commercial aviation industry continues to increase.
Two weeks ago, Airbus hosted a day-and-a-half media event promoting its vision of moving toward decarbonizing aviation.
Boeing and Alaska Airlines last week hosted media for a touchy-feely event following up on the announcement in June by Boeing and Alaska of its joint ecoD (as Boeing calls it) program.
Boeing in October outlined progress of its ecoDemonstrator program, at the time with Etihad Airways as the partner. A 787-10 was used at that stage.
Mike Sinnett, Boeing VP of Product Development, said last week that the Alaska 737-9 MAX that is the focus of the current ecoD effort includes several ideas that would not make it into test on a stand-alone basis. But as part of a larger effort, little things that cumulatively can reduce drag and therefore fuel burn can be tested.
IATA AGM: Airplanes, engines SAF capable coming; feedstock lags by years
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Oct. 4, 2021, © Leeham News: Engine and airframe makers are well on their way to becoming fully capable of using Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). But the industries providing SAF are way behind in meeting the potential demand.
Rick Deurloo of Pratt & Whitney
Rick Deurloo. Sr. VP & Chief Commercial Officer at Pratt & Whitney said one major US airline would use all currently available SAF in one day.
“The challenge will be the feedstock. How do we grow that technology or grow that ability to provide the feedstock so when we do have 100% SAF-capable aircraft and engines, we have the energy to go with it?” Deurloo said in an interview with LNA at the IATA AGM this week in Boston.
Airlines around the world are partnering with different companies to develop this technology, he said.
PW is already 50% capable and has a “clear path” to getting 100% capable within two years. But there is not enough feedstock in the world today do fill the 50% capability.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 23. Certification Flight tests
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca.
October 1, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we described how we produced our Flight Test Articles, FTAs, and how the company flight tests are made.
Now we have finished the Company flight tests and made any modifications required to the FTAs so we can apply for Certification Flight tests with the regulator.
Figure 1. VMU flight test with the Airbus A350. Source: Airbus video.
Is the cargo capacity deciding the airliner variant? Part 2.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
September 30, 2021, © Leeham News: In last week’s article, we put the question: Has the increased cargo pricing started to affect the choice of airliner variant?
We analyzed Boeing’s 787-8 and -9 for margin generation when flying at low post-pandemic load factors. We found the 787-9 is the more attractive alternative as long as air cargo pricing stays high, even though the passenger load factor on the route would motivate a 787-8. The revenue from under the floor cargo compensates for a low load factor in the cabin. Now we subject the Airbus range; A330neo, and A350 to the same analysis.
Summary
- The trend from last week continues. Variants with high cargo capacity can sustain lower load factors while generating the same margin on routes.
- This article develops the passenger load factors where the margin generation is the same between Airbus widebodies.
Airbus begins “stuffing” A220 to speed assembly, cut costs
By Scott Hamilton
Florent Massou. Photo: Airbus.
Sept. 28, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus is streamlining some of its production of the A220 to reduce costs and the time to assemble the airplanes at its Montreal and Mobile plants.
Florent Massou, the SVP and Head of the A220 program, told LNA the company wants to shave 50% of the final assembly time for the A220. There will be an unrevealed cost reduction, which Massou declined to reveal. But he said it isn’t a one-for-one cost reduction.
Final assembly typically runs 5% to 8% of the total cost of the airplane, according to Boeing’s touch labor union, the IAM 751. Whether this equates to the A220, which began life as a Bombardier aircraft, is unknown.