Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Pontifications: A new setback for Boeing
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 18, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing suffered another setback last week, and this time it’s unrelated to the 737 MAX.
Boeing abandoned a robotic riveting/fastener system awkwardly called Fuselage Automatic Upright Build, or FAUB, intended to speed production.
Bloomberg first reported the abandonment. The Seattle Times has an extensive story detailing the history and objectives.
Doing these processes manually is incredibly labor intensive. FAUB, when it works, dramatically cuts the time, improves the accuracy and reduces injuries.
FAUB is but one element of a production transformation Boeing has been doing for years under the code name Black Diamond.
Converging technologies in NMA
Various automated and digital processes technologies have been in place on various 7-Series programs for years. FAUB, as The Seattle Times reported, was added to the 777 Classic line ab0ut six years ago. Part of the mission was to de-risk FAUB for application to the 777X.
Then, FAUB and the other processes were to converge for the first time on one Boeing Commercial Airplanes program with the New Midmarket Airplane, or NMA.
Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg said on several earnings calls that the NMA was as much about production as it was about a new airplane program (or words to this effect).
But Boeing couldn’t make FAUB work.
Why not?
This is a good question and one for which there isn’t a clear answer.
It works elsewhere
FAUB, or a system very similar, is used by Airbus and other aerospace companies. It works for them, says Jessica Kinman, a senior manager for Dassault Systemes.
Kinman spoke Friday at a seminar sponsored by the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) at North Seattle College about advanced manufacturing and other transformative production processes. This was just two days after the Boeing FAUB news broke.
Among the processes illustrated: robotics working on an upright fuselage. In other words, FAUB—although this was not identified as Boeing’s FAUB.
With the NMA business plan relying in part on Black Diamond processes, of which FAUB is an element, losing FAUB isn’t going to help an already-struggling business case.
But, then, NMA is on hold at Boeing until the MAX returns to service and cash flow resumes. So, from this perspective, losing FAUB at this time isn’t especially critical.
Longer term
But longer term, Boeing needs to understand why it couldn’t make FAUB work whereas Airbus and others can.
It’s all part of the digital factory Dassault and its competitors consult on as aerospace (and other industries) transform in the future.
I’ll have more about this in a subsequent post.
Bjorn’s Corner: Analysing the Lion Air JT610 crash, Part 3.
November 15, 2019, ©. Leeham News: We continue the series on analyzing the Lion Air JT610 crash. We now analyze the initial part of the flight. In the last Corner, we analyzed what went wrong in the aircraft. The left Angle of Attack sensor had a 21° bias failure.
How such a rather limited failure could bring a new Boeing 737 MAX down is what we try to understand in this series. To assist us, we have a detailed final accident report from the Indonesian Safety Board.
Can the DHC 8-400 compete with a CRJ550 for the 50 seat Scope Clause market?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
November 14, 2019, © Leeham News: The US mainline airlines have large fleets of 50-seater regional jets that are getting old. The present Scope Clause limits on the number of aircraft with seating over 50 seats stop the mainlines from replacing these aircraft with larger aircraft. So there is a real need for an efficient 50 seater regional aircraft for the US market.
As there are no 50 seater jets in production, United is converting its 70 seater CRJ700s to 50 seaters to fill the gap and calls them the CRJ550. This is where de Havilland Canada sees a change for an adapted DHC 8-400 turboprop. It’s more efficient than a CRJ550 while offering the same comfort, says de Havilland. We check if this is correct and what chances a DHC 8-“550” have in this market.
Summary:
- The US Scope Clauses allow the three mainlines to have more 1,000 50 seater jets, yet no new ones are available to replace the more than 600 in the market.
- The in-production DHC 8-400 would be an alternative when looking at cabin size and dimensions.
Embraer presents 3Q2019 results.
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 12, 2019, ©. Leeham Co: Embraer announced its 3Q2019 results today. The company delivered a report which disappointed analysts regarding revenue, earnings and free cash flow. Commercial deliveries were 17 jets (15 in 2Q2018) but only two of these were of the E2 generation. Total E2 deliveries now stand at eight jets after 18 months of deliveries, a very low figure.
The Joint Venture with Boeing is now delayed as the European Union says it sees a risk for diminished competition in the Airliner market. Embraer will close the carve-out of the Commercial Aircraft division and its services at the end of the year while waiting for final approvals.
Wall Street rewards Boeing with December MAX delivery forecast
Nov. 12, 2019, © Leeham News: Wall Street rewarded Boeing with a $15 spike in its share price after the company said it expects the recertification of the 737 MAX and the first deliveries to begin in December.
Boeing photo.
Actual return to service is not expected until January, following pilot training, Boeing said.
“Boeing rallied 4.5% today in a slightly down market after the company outlined the remaining milestones for the 737 MAX’s return to commercial service,” JP Morgan’s aerospace analyst wrote in a note after the close of the market.
“Boeing’s messaging has now caught up to Street expectations, which is that the MAX can return in early 2020, though the company’s timeline still allows for FAA certification and potentially deliveries before year-end.”
Airlines look toward another peak season without the MAX
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Introduction
Nov. 11, 2019, © Leeham News: Airlines are beginning to make plans for another peak summer season either without the Boeing 737 MAX in their fleets, or a reduced number.
With the recertification of the MAX continually sliding, like an airline’s creeping delay at the airport, this is stating the obvious. Airlines keep shifting the true return to service (RTS) (not recertification) from 2019 into 1Q2020.
Source: Boeing.
American and Southwest airlines, the two carriers with more MAXes grounded than any other airline, now target RTS March 5 next year—just a week short of the global grounding of the airplane.
Boeing’s chairman, David Calhoun, acknowledged in an interview with CNBC Nov. 5 RTS will now fall into 2021.
This was two days before the Federal Aviation Administration and EASA rejected Boeing’s documentation that is required before recertification is granted. According to media reports, this could add an inconsequential number of days to the process or a significant number of weeks.
Concerns are beginning to emerge that recertification may not come until after the first of the year.
All this increases the uncertainty for the airlines.
Summary
- Creating Plan B—no MAX in the peak season.
- Stored MAXes may face a “calendar” deadline, requiring C Checks before RTS.
- Lessors offering new, year-long leases on A320s and 737 NGs.
Pontifications: Observing Veterans Day
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 11, 2019, © Leeham News: Today is Veterans Day observance in the USA. I’m going to make a rare departure from discussing commercial aviation issues to talk about the military.
I never served—my lottery number during the Vietnam era was too high and, with this unpopular war, I didn’t have a desire to join the Army. My brother had been drafted and received orders for Vietnam. On the day of his departure to the Southeast Asian country, which also happened to be his birthday, his unit’s orders were changed. They went to Stuttgart, Germany, where he served the remainder of his two year duty.
Our servicemen of that era were frowned upon because of Vietnam. I can truthfully say I did not join this view, reserving my disdain for the leadership in Washington DC.
But I did notice that as I got older, my respect for the military grew and grew.
Bjorn’s Corner: Analysing the Lion Air JT610 crash, Part 2.
November 8, 2019, ©. Leeham News: We started the series on analyzing the Lion Air JT610 crash based on the final crash report last week by looking at what went wrong with the aircraft’s Angle of Attack sensors.
Now we continue with looking at why an MCAS system is needed in an aircraft like the Boeing 737 MAX and why a correctly designed MCAS is not an irrational addition to the aircraft.
Air France-KLM wants to simplify the fleet
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Nov. 7, 2019, © Leeham News: Air France-KLM will strive to greatly simplify its fleet by early next decade, the group outlined in an investors day presentation Nov. 5.
The Group includes Air France, KLM and Transavia. The low-cost carriers Joon and Hop! are discontinued.
Fleet simplification
KLM
The company wants to reduce today’s fleet types at KLM from six to four, dropping the Airbus A330 and Boeing 747s.
The Future Fleet concentrates around the Embraer E1 and E2 E-Jets; the Boeing 737 NG; the Boeing 787-9 and the Boeing 777 Classic.
At the moment, there are no Boeing 737 MAXes in the future fleet plans. KLM had none on order, even before the October 29, 2018, Lion Air accident.
The possibility of a Boeing 777X is also not shown in the rendering.
Aviation Forum Munich: Boeing moves away from Partnership for Success
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 6, 2019, ©. Leeham News at Aviation Forum Munich: The second day of Aviation Forum Munich had an interesting presentation from Boeing’s VP of Sourcing, Jody Franich.
He described the One Boeing approach for Manufacturing and Sourcing and how Boeing is moving away from its supply chain Partnership for Success program, with the supplier cost down focus replaced by a more long-term cooperation model with a mutual benefit focus.
Boeing’s VP Sourcing Office Jody Franich presents to Aviation Forum Munich.