Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 5. Turbofan design problems April 26, 2024
- Airbus 1Q2024 results: Airbus CEO: “A350 in-service experience drives positive reputation and orders” April 25, 2024
- A350-1000 or 777-9? Part 3 April 25, 2024
- Boeing CEO promises company is turning around…again April 24, 2024
- Solid start for stand-alone GE Aerospace despite cuts to LEAP output April 23, 2024
Leahy skeptical of Boeing plan to add 737 seats, vows to maintain 60% share of neo-MAX sector
Airbus’ chief operating officer-customers, John Leahy, dismisses the idea that Boeing can add more seats to its 737 family to gain competitiveness over the A320 family.
In a press briefing in advance of the air show discussing the 737 MAX (not subject to embargo), a Boeing official revealed that the company is considering changes to the galley/aft lavatory design and the use of slim line seats to add 6-9 seats to the entire 737 NG family. These changes would migrate to the 737 MAX. Airbus previously announced similar changes to the A320, gaining three seats, and more recently to the A321—which also required the addition of exit doors—to boost capacity to 236 passengers in shoe-horn configuration.
But in an interview with Leahy, was skeptical about Boeing’s possibilities.
“That’s more problematic, we’ll see,” he said. “Is this the O’Leary option where they stand at the back of the airplane?” he quipped, referring to Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary, who has proposed a standing seat configuration.
“I’d be very surprised if they did that,” Leahy said, getting back on point. “I don’t know if they could do that (6-9 seats) but remember, we have 236 seats in the A321, so why should I be concerned if they squeeze a few extra seats in? I’d be surprised if they can. I think [the 737-900ER] is at its exit limits right now. It’s also at its performance limits.
Leahy believes that the A320neo will maintain a 60% market share vs the 737 MAX.
“We’re outselling the MAX 2-1 with a 65% market share. We’re not talking about the first couple of hundred airplanes, we’re talking about the first couple of thousand that the neo will have 60% of the market and they’ll have 40%. We’ll give them 40% of the market. It looks right now that the [neo] market will go higher than that but we’ll stay there.”
Wide-body airplanes get plenty of attention at IATA; Leahy comments on 777X, A350 and A380
The 69th AGM of IATA just concluded at Cape Town, South Africa, and wide-body aircraft drew a lot of focus in these articles from Bloomberg News and Reuters.
We spoke with John Leahy at the end of the AGM, and though tired and off to sell more airplanes before the Paris Air Show begins June 17, he had some pithy comments about Boeing’s 777X and a strong defense of the A380 sales.
Boeing will have a public briefing of the 777X at the air show, but there have been plenty of leaks before now in which the 777-9X is said to be 20% more fuel efficient than the 777-300ER it’s conceived to replace.
“Be careful with the numbers there,” Leahy said, referring to the 20% figure. “We’re not at all worried about the 777X. They are known for their paper airplanes. No one seems to remember that they already not just marketed but sold 777-200s with folding wings, and of course none was produced. No one seems to remember the ‘game-changing’ Sonic Cruiser, which of course was a joke. No one seems to remember the 747-500, the 747-600 or the 787-3. The Japanese remember the 787-3, which [Boeing] sold with legally binding contracts and just never delivered.
“Yeah, they’re worried about the A350-1000, and they’ve come out with one paper airplane after another and declaring victory, declaring that the world is beating a path to their door. Naw. It’s BS. It’s typical Boeing marketing hype.”
As we remarked to Leahy, “tell us what you really think.”
Leahy repeated previous statements that he could sell a lot more A350-1000s if he had the production slots.
“We could substantially increase sales for the A350-1000 if we could substantially increase production. I need a second line, a dedicated line and we’re debating that internally. We’re doing the business case. I’m confident we can make that decision before the end of the year.”
We asked a leading question about the rate he’d like to see, but Leahy didn’t bite.
“I don’t want to tell Boeing exactly what we are up to.”
We also asked where the additional line would be, if approval is granted: France, Germany or Mobile (AL). “It’s not going to be Mobile,” he said. “Let’s start building CEOs and NEOs there first before we start getting into wide bodies.”
Although there have been a number of stories reporting that Japan Air Lines and All Nippon Airways may buy the A350-1000, breaking Boeing’s decades-long monopoly. It won’t be by Paris, apparently.
“I’d be very surprised, but I can say I’m looking for an improvement in our market share in Japan. We have nowhere to go but up. I would be hopeful we will get a breakthrough in Japan, but I don’t want to predict a timeline,” Leahy said.
A380 sales have been poor, but Leahy is sticking to his prediction of 25 sales this year.
Question: The A380 isn’t selling very well.
Leahy: Excuse me, I haven’t modified my forecast. I said I’ll sell 25 this year, and I’ll sell 25 this year. If this were December, maybe we’d have a discussion. I’ll sell 25 this year.
Q. You fell short last year.
Leahy: “Bad things happen to good people.”
Q. The VLA forecast 1200-1300 since 2000. Sales and delivery rates fell short every year to maintain that pace.
Leahy: “The one thing that doesn’t change is that [everybody] all agree[s] that RPKs double every 15 years. We have to have larger aircraft. Larger aircraft are the only solution [for key airports].”
The Airbus forecasts assumed Boeing would capture a 50% share of the VLA passenger market. In fact, Boeing only has a 10% share. Leahy predicts this split will be maintained.
“We will have 90% market share for VLA. The A380 will do very well and I am confident the book-to-bill will be maintained. No, we’re not going to sell 60-70 aircraft a year. But we will sell 25-35 and we will build 25-35 a year,” he said. “A380 do get high yield passengers.
Note: Because readers won’t behave, comments are closed.
Odds and Ends: Boeing moves jobs from WA State; CSeries FTV 1; A350 power up; 787-9 assembly; 777
Moving jobs out of Washington: The Seattle Times has a story about last Friday’s announcement that Boeing is moving more engineering jobs out of Washington.
CSeries: Airliners.net had this photo over the weekend. The first flight is expected after the Paris Air Show.
Bombardier CS100 Flight Test Vehicle #1.
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Airbus has powered up the engines on the A350 for the first time. First flight is expected within weeks, likely before the Paris Air Show.
Airbus photo.
Smaller jet demand: The smallest Airbus and Boeing jets have weak demand, reports Aviation Week. And we’re not just talking about the A319 and 737-700/7.
787-9 Assembly begins: It was a busy weekend, with all of the above and capped by the start of 787-9 assembly. The first three 789s will be built on the Surge Line at Everett.
777 Painting: We linked two stories last week, to KING 5 and to The Seattle Times, about the robotic wing painting for the 777 line. Here is a photo:
Boeing photo
Boeing currently is only robotically painting wings going on even-numbered line numbers. Wings going on the odd-numbered lines are still painted by hand for now. Because the program is new, the programmers continue to adjust the software between the even- and odd-numbered line wings, and eventually all the 777 wings will be painted robotically.
The paint shop is big enough to accommodate 777X wings, including the folding wing tips. This, of course, implies the 777X will be assembled in Everett. It’s unclear where the wings will be built.
The robotic painting is part of the 777 Lean manufacturing begun in 2005, which in the entire process has enabled Boeing to boost 777 production to 8.3 a month within the same assembly line space.
While this is the highest twin-aisle rate Boeing has produced to-date, Airbus has been assembling A330s at rate 10/mo for some time and is considering going to rate 11. Boeing, of course, will be at rate 10 for the 787 by year end. Airbus long ago announced plans to go to rate 10 for the A350 four years after EIS, but John Leahy is already pushing for a second assembly line to accommodate A350-1000 demand.
Running on all cylinders and picking up speed at Boeing
Beginning in 2007 and for the next six years, it was trials and tribulations for The Boeing Co.
The 787 program was years late, billions of dollars over budget and the first commercial airliner produced by Boeing that was grounded.
The Queen of the Skies, the 747, has largely become morbid-bound in its latest iteration, which was also years late and well over budget.
The KC-767 International Tanker program became an embarrassment, also years late, over budget and beset by design issues. This program in disarray was weighed by the USAF as a risk factor that played a role in selecting the Northrop/EADS KC-330 in the first round of competition to recapitalize the KC-135 fleet.
In a huge embarrassment, Airbus skunked Boeing over the entire single-aisle re-engine vs new replacement issue, swept in an won a big order from American Airlines and forced Boeing into a highly awkward co-press conference to launch the MAX at American in which former BCA CEO Jim Albaugh looked like he had just swallowed four or five lemons.
It continued: The A320neo is far outselling the 737 MAX and Airbus has co-opted a number of previously exclusively Boeing customers.
Readers know we’ve been pretty hard on Boeing throughout many of these issues, and we’re inherently skeptical. So when we now conclude that Boeing at long, long last is back on track and picking up speed, we’re not simply sniffing kerosene.
737 MAX may share NG improvements still to come, which might include more seats
Boeing’s 737 MAX, still weeks away from design configuration freeze and still with lots of detailed design to come, may share improvements still to come on the current 737 NG.
The head of the MAX program, Keith Leverkuhn, vice president and general manager, wouldn’t confirm or deny a report by Aspire Aviation that the MAX family will have 6-9 more seats through interior changes, the use of slim line seats and door changes when asked during Boeing’s MAX briefing yesterday with an international crowd of journalists.
Citing unidentified Boeing sources, Aspire reported:
- Boeing to modify 737 MAX 8 doors to add around 9 seats;
- 737 MAX 8 to meet 13% fuel burn reduction per seat target after door modification;
- Door modification has negligible impact on MEW; and
- 737 MAX 7 & MAX 9 also likely to have around 9 more seats.
Leverkuhn told the media that Boeing was satisfied with the current configuration of the airframe of the NG and MAX shares this configuration. Although Leverkuhn said Boeing had no intentions of changing, it still would talk with customers–leading to the obvious conclusion that Boeing wasn’t saying a firm “no” to the possibility.
We talked with him a few minutes alone later in which he clarified his earlier comments. Leverkuhn told us that while there will be no changes to the doors on the MAX which would allow more seats, the NG program is considering interior configurations that could lead to more seats and the MAX and NG programs closely follow developments and determine what can be shared between NG improvements still to come and the final MAX design.
Airbus in January announced a space-flex program that includes two new doors, enabling high density capacity to grow to 236 from 220. Airbus previously began offering a revised aft galley/lav combination in the A320 to permit three more seats, to 153 in two-classes. Boeing has been studying similar changes, according to our market intelligence.
Odds and Ends: Mike Mecham, aviation fixture, retires; 777 robotics
Mike Mecham is a fixture in aviation journalism. He is retiring after 26 years with Aviation Week.
We’ve known Mike only for a few of these 26 years. He’s a cantankerous curmudgeon infamous for his monopolizing press events as if he was doing a one-on-one, totally oblivious to two dozen other journalists waiting their turn to question the subject, and having a jaundiced view of just about everything.
And that’s what made him so likeable in spite of himself.
At Boeing’s media dinner at the end of Day One of the pre-Paris Air Show briefing, Boeing’s Commercial Corp Com arose to wish him well, tell some stories and give him an airplane. True to form, Cranky Mikey remarked he hoped it wasn’t a 787 with batteries. (It was a 747-8 model.)
Mike was virtually joined at the hip with Guy Norris, another AvWeek journalist. No matter what the event, Guy and Mike appeared together. This constant companionship inevitably inspired ribald commentary. We have to believe Guy will go through withdrawal.
We asked Mike as we were boarding our respective buses off the Boeing property at the end of Day 2 what he planned to do in retirement. Mike plans to eschew aviation and commune with nature. We shudder to think how Mother Nature will greet this news; she and her creations will never be the same.
AirInsight has this 3 1/2 minute video with Mike, who gives his unvarnished views of the industry.
We wish Mike all the best.
In Boeing News:
Boeing showed us some technological advances in building the 777, another step in the Lean process begun in 2005. King 5 TV has this story: 777 wing painting. The Seattle Times also has a report.
We don’t have much to add to these two reports, so we’ll leave this topic here.