Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Additional thoughts on MH370 as mystery deepens
Latest: The debris spotted in the ocean near the oil slick is not from MH370, officials say.
The mystery deepens on the disappearance of Malaysian Airlines flight MH370–there still is no sign of debris or the airplane, some 36 hours after it disappeared.
We have some additional thoughts, none of which should be considered as suggesting this is what happened, but only as possibilities to probe.
- The absence of any debris along the intended flight path seems to suggest the airplane deviated from the flight path. If the plane was destroyed at altitude, as if from a bomb or catastrophic structural failure, debris, such as seat cushions, blankets, insulation, and even bodies, would be been found quickly. See TWA Flight 800 for an example of this (though it came apart while still climbing to cruise altitude). If the plane was intact on impact, debris would have been found. See Air France 447 or Alaska Airlines 261 as examples.
- If the plane deviated from the flight path, then this suggests it obviously was under command of either the pilots or hijackers. But then what? Even after turning off the transponder, one would expect that at some point, primary radar contact would have been made, even if not immediately recognized as such. Investigation will certainly follow this path to determine any primary radar contact was established.
- If the plane was under command, what happened to it? In theory, it could have been flown to an airport but then what? If the airport is in use, a Boeing 777 is rather obvious. If flown to a disused airport, to what end? To hold the plane and passengers for ransom? If so, it’s hard to collect ransom when you don’t tell anyone.
- On the other hand, if the plane was being hijacked and flown somewhere, were the hijackers incompetent fliers, crashing the airplane into some remote mountains?
- After 9/11 it is unlikely that any hijackers could have cowed the passengers into doing nothing while taking control of the airplane. Certainly this being a red-eye flight means most passengers probably immediately tried to sleep but somebody would have observed an attempt to take over the airplane and raised the alarm. The fact that four passengers now appear under scrutiny is also intriguing: four or five passengers were involved in the 9/11 hijackings.
- But if hijacked, why hasn’t anyone claimed responsibility? The point of terrorists is to terrorize, not shroud an event in puzzlement and mystery.
How can a plane simply vanish? An ex-American Airlines Boeing 727-200 did so, and it seems to have been a criminal act. Air and Space Magazine recently had an update on this story.
Investigative focus on MAS MH370
The following will be areas of focus for the investigation of the Malaysian Airlines MH370 crash, involving a Boeing 777-200ER equipped with Rolls-Royce engines. These are standard areas of investigation and at this point, listing them here doesn’t imply or suggest any one area is more prevalent than another.
- Catastrophic structural failure of the airframe and/or engines. We consider this highly unlikely, given the sterling history of the 777, but investigators will look at this possibility.
- Dual engine flame out and immediate loss of control. The RR engines have had a history of icing that cut fuel flow. This was the cause of the British Airways 777-200ER crash landing at London Heathrow. A fix was undertaken, but this possibility will undoubtedly be considered. Even if this happened, unless there was an immediate loss of control, there would have been glide time and the ability of the crew to radio an emergency. The Ram Air Turbine (RAT) would have supplied basic power and instrumentation.
- Control upset caused by clear air turbulence. Apparently weather was good but CAT is not unusual in the Pacific. CAT would have to be awfully extreme to cause an upset of such magnitude as to permit the airplane to dive into the ocean in so short a period of time as to preclude a radio call. But remember that Air France 447 descended from cruising altitude to impact without a radio call in a very short period of time.
- Cockpit penetration and incapacitation of the crew, followed by deliberate destruction of the airplane.
- A bomb.
- Any prospect of an accidental shoot-down by a military missile.
- Pilot suicide. As inflammatory as this possibility is, this has been the cause of at least two crashes into water. The history of the pilots will be studied and any information from the black boxes will help on this point,
Holden elected president of IAM 751
Update, 8:30pm March 6: Jon Holden was elected president of IAM 751 today. He fills the remaining term of Wroblewski, to February 1, 2017.
Original Post:
IAM 751 members for today on the successor to Tom Wroblewski at president of the District.
Wroblewski resigned his post after the highly contentious vote by members approving concessions in their Boeing contract in exchange for the 777X work to be located at the Everett (WA) plant. Wroblewski cited ill-health.
Wroblewski was caught in the middle between the IAM International headquarters, which favored the concessions, and much of his membership and his own council leadership, which did not. The first vote in November soundly rejected the contract but the second narrowly approved it with a 51% majority.
The nominees seeking to succeed him, detailed in this Seattle Times story, are likely to be more militant than Wroblewski.
Relations between 751 and Boeing are at what is probably an all-time low.
Vote results will be after 6pm tonight.
- The Everett Herald has a story about “Boeing fatigue” in the Washington State Legislature.
- The Herald also has a story about an allegation of a “payoff” to Boeing in connection with an earmark to a lobbying group generally funded by Boeing.
Odds and Ends: Repairing composites; More on Rolls-Royce; Boeing layoffs; Book Review; A380 assessment
Repairing composites: Aviation Week has a good article about repairing composites: specifically the Boeing 787 that caught fire at London Heathrow Airport a year ago.
More on Rolls-Royce: Aviation Week also has a longer article to follow up its previous one on the development of new engines by Rolls-Royce. This one details RR’s 20-year engine plan.
Boeing layoffs: It’s one of those good news-bad news things. Boeing announced layoffs for 600 workers in San Antonio (TX). That’s bad news. But it’s because there is little 787 work remaining at this center used to catch up on fixing and finishing 787s during the huge backlog of airplanes. That’s good news. The San Antonio Business Journal has this story.
Separately, the Puget Sound Business Journal reports that St. Louis apparently was the leading contender to be the home for the Boeing 777X if Seattle’s IAM 751 hadn’t approved a new contract.
Book review-The Aviators: We’ve just finished a book focusing on Charles Lindbergh, Eddie Rickenbacker and Jimmy Doolittle and recommend it. 
The Aviators provides a single location for coverage of these three remarkable pioneers. If you’ve read dedicated biographies of these three, you probably won’t learn much that’s new but if not, this is a great one-stop shop.
Lindbergh was much more than “just” an aviator. He was an environmentalist and a scientist. Aviators also covers the kidnapping of his namesake son. Doolittle’s career as a salesman of airplanes and his hand in urging his employer, Shell Oil, to create 100 octane aviation gas, is chronicled. Rickenbacker’s entry into England is highlighted when British authorities thought him a German spy because of his name.
Aviators follows their stories through to death.
A380 assessment: No, it’s not by Richard Aboulafia, who views the Airbus A380 as his favorite whipping boy. It’s an opinion written by an Aviation Week reporter. It’s not a rousing endorsement of the A380’s future.
Odds and Ends: No 90-seat ATR for now; 777X work; JAL says A350 was ‘better;’
No 90-seat ATR: Aviation Week reports that for now Airbus Group, which owns 50% of ATR, won’t green-light a 90-seat ATR turbo-prop due to the adverse impact a development program would have on profits.
Competing for 777X work: Electroimpact is based near Paine Field in Washington and it supplies Boeing and Airbus. It’s interested in participating in the Boeing 777X work. The Everett Herald has this story focusing on the company. Meanwhile, Reuters has this story about the pressures the Airbus and Boeing supply chains are under to cut costs.
JAL: A350 was ‘better:’ Japan Air Lines says its choice of the Airbus A350 was made because the airplane was just “better” than Boeing’s offering. CNBC reports.
No highway in the sky: Just on the ground. See this series of photos to see what we’re talking about.
Boeing’s plan to bridge 777 production gap includes a 777-200 P2F strategy; we’re skeptical of the idea
Boeing plans to begin an effort to stimulate demand of the 777 Classic to bridge a three year production gap to the 777X entry-into-service in 2020. One of its strategies is to persuade current 777-200 operators to sell their aircraft to cargo airlines for conversion, replacing these with new 777s. This was first reported by The Wall Street Journal.
We’re skeptical of this on a couple of counts. First, we remain unconvinced that 777-200 operators will be incentivized to buy new 777 Classics unless there is a deep, deep discount—something Boeing claims it doesn’t plan to do, although we wouldn’t expect Boeing to say anything else.
Odds and Ends: Rolls follows Pratt with GTF technology; Airbus’ challenge;
Rolls-Royce and GTF: Rolls-Royce today said it will pursue technology for its next big engine that follows the Geared Turbo Fan technology of Pratt & Whitney’s smaller design.
Aviation Week has this story and Bloomberg has this one.
RR says the engine will be ready around 2020, which is just about the time Emirates Airlines would like to see an engine that is 10% more efficient than today’s technologies, for the Airbus A380.
Airbus’ challenge: Reuters has a think-piece about the challenge Airbus faces in the heart-of-the-market twin-aisle sector occupied by the A330 and A350. Bloomberg discusses the A350 challenge in its report of Airbus Group earnings.
Odds and Ends: Boeing’s bonus to Charleston workers; E-Jet E2 EIS; IAM and Airbus; Fending off A330neo
Boeing’s bonus to Charleston workers: We’ve ignored the continuing workmanship stories of Boeing’s Charleston plant on the 787 for the past months as Norwegian Air Shuttle, LOT and Air India continue to have problems with the airplane. We figured there has been more than enough written about the program difficulties, so we moved on.
But the stories that Boeing is offering bonuses to Charleston workers to get the job right is something we feel compelled to comment on. The Seattle Times has this story.
It’s a bit of wonderment that Boeing finds it necessary to incentivize workers to do their jobs correctly, providing a bonus that is greater than those given to the Everett workers who have to fix the poor workmanship of Charleston. Typically, bonuses are given to workers for going above-and-beyond, not for merely doing what they are supposed to do in the first place.
The continuing issues with Charleston are waved away as “things are going according to plan,” and “traveled work is expected.” If this is “according to plan,” then the planner should be canned. Of course, we know this is merely corporate rhetoric dodging the question and strains credibility.
And back at Everett, those early 787s, known as the “Terrible Teens,” are still problem children, according to this report on public radio station KUOW.
EMB E2 timeline: Embraer has clarified its entry-into-service for the E-Jet E2. Flight Global reports that an official said the E-195 E2’s EIS will be the first half of 2018 (which was previously specified) and the E-190 E2 and E-175 E2 will follow in the first half of 2019 and 2020 respectively. Previously, EMB hadn’t been this specific about the EIS of the sibling models, saying only EIS would be in 2019 and 2020.
Union attempt at Airbus: To absolutely no surprise, the International Association of Machinists will attempt to unionize the new Airbus Mobile (AL) plant, reports The Street. IAM will also attempt to re-organize Boeing’s Charleston plant, which was once an IAM shop but de-certified in advance of the second 787 assembly line being located there. The Charleston Post and Courier has this story about the union plans there.
Conspiracy theorists in the IAM 751 suggested a quid-pro-quo between the International IAM: Boeing neutrality of re-organizing Charleston in exchange for the 777X contract vote.
Fending off A330neo: Aspire Aviation has a long piece about the prospective Airbus A330neo and how Boeing can fend off this potential competition.
Icing Up: This isn’t aviation (unless you consider this a satellite photo), but we are just fascinated by this picture of the Great Lakes in the US Midwest. The Great Lakes are 80% iced over.
