Leeham News and Analysis
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Commercial Aircraft programs duration from launch to delivery over the years
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
June 20, 2022, © Leeham News: New airplane programs used to come to market in four years. Now, the launch-to-entry-into-service period has been seven years or more. (Chinese and Russian programs take even longer.)
Boeing launched the 787 in December 2003. EIS was October 2011. Airbus’ A350, launched in response to the 787 in 2004, went through several iterations which added time to the program. Delays added more time. EIS was in January 2015.
Bombardier’s C Series was launched in 2008. EIS was in July 2016. The Boeing 777X was launched in 2013. EIS is now targeted for 2025. Boeing launched the 747-8 in 2005. EIS was in 2011. The Boeing 737 MAX was launched in July 2011. EIS was May 2017. Airbus’ A320neo was launched in December 2010. EIS was in January 2016.
Boeing has been discussing the New Midmarket Airplane (or whatever it was called throughout changing nomenclature) since 2012. It still hasn’t launched the program. Once it does, how long will it take to enter service?
Credit: Boeing
Any new program is a multi-year, multi-million investment that, in the worst case, can take decades before recovering the initial development and production ramp-up expenditures.
Several recent programs, notably the 777X, have faced significant delays between the envisioned and actual start of deliveries to airlines.
Boeing claims that advances in manufacturing techniques will reduce the time required to develop the next aircraft program. However, regulatory scrutiny is higher nowadays and the aircraft built are more complex than in previous generations.
LNA analyzes how the time between the program launch and entry into service has evolved since the beginning of the Jet Age. The goal is to find whether there is a trend and in what direction. The analysis focuses on Airbus, Boeing, Lockheed, and McDonnell Douglas.
Summary
- An unmistakable trend;
- The latest clean sheet designs took significantly longer;
- Engine development dictates recent derivative program timelines;
- Future program considerations.
Migrating advanced processes from Defense to Commercial isn’t a cakewalk for Boeing
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By Scott Hamilton
June 13, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing’s CEOs, David Calhoun and his predecessors Dennis Muilenburg and Jim McNerney, said repeatedly the next Boeing airplane (NBA) will be as much as about production as it will be about the airplane. In fact, Calhoun says production is key to designing, producing, and delivering a less expensive airplane that will underpin the value proposition going forward.
Engine technology advances might achieve a 10% reduction over today’s CFM LEAP and Pratt & Whitney Geared TurboFan engines. So, advanced design and production is key to the business case for the NBA.
Despite using these advancements on Boeing defense programs (the T-7 Red Hawk trainer and MQ-25 unmanned aerial refueling airplane), assimilating them into commercial airplane development and production has high hurdles.
Summary
- Boeing has had mixed success using advanced technology design and production on its current commercial programs.
- Regulatory approvals will be challenging.
- Engines will be 10% better than the LEAP and GTF—but are these the correct comparisons?
Pontifications: Some customers anticipate up to year delay in certification of A321XLR
By Scott Hamilton
June 13, 2022, © Leeham News: Airbus scheduled the first flight of its Xtra Long Range A321XLR Wednesday.
Some customers think certification of the airplane will be delayed up to a year as Europe’s EASA and the USA’s Federal Aviation Administration demand changes to the integrated aft fuel tank that gives the XLR an advertised range of 4,700nm.
That was the consensus of those I talked to who gathered last week at an industry event in Chicago. Airbus already said the XLR certification will be delayed by a few months as regulators review how the fuel tank is integrated into the airplane.
Airlines impacted by new aircraft delays
By Vincent Valery
Introduction
June 6, 2022, © Leeham News: LNA recently discussed the certification delays on all the current aircraft or variants under development: Airbus A321XLR, Boeing 737-7, 737-10, and 777X. Dreamliner deliveries have also been halted for 18 months now (except for a dozen last year).
Credit: Boeing
Airlines consequently face significant delivery delays on the aircraft they ordered. American Airlines publicly stated the Boeing 787 delivery delays have caused it to operate a smaller international network than envisioned. Air Lease Corp repeatedly noted that every airplane on order from Airbus and Boeing is delayed. It’s now been reported that CFM LEAP engines for the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX families will be delayed for 4-6 weeks.
As passenger traffic recovers, the delivery delays will hamper airlines’ ability to capitalize on more robust demand. Higher fuel prices also mean that they cannot mitigate the impact by operating as many newer-generation aircraft as envisioned.
LNA analyzes the delivery schedule envisioned by Airbus and Boeing on the above programs that were in place before the delay announcements. The goal is to single out the most affected customers.
Summary
- Deliveries concentrated with one customer on the 737-7 and 737-10;
- A more diverse A321XLR and Dreamliner delivery base;
- Renegotiating 777X delivery timelines.
Pontifications: From Just in Time to Just in Case
By Scott Hamilton
June 6, 2022, © Leeham News: Delivery delays by Airbus and Boeing are well-known in today’s recovering environment. The reasons vary from supply chain challenges affecting both companies to Boeing’s suspended deliveries of the 787 and slower-than-expected deliveries of the 737 MAX.
Airbus Canada delivered only five A220s in May vs 10 that were planned. Ten deliveries are planned this month but hitting this target (and 70 for the year) may be problematic. LNA previously detailed the delays for the A220. Airplanes are coming off the final assembly lines without completed cockpits. Embraer is affected by a shortage of seats. CFM’s delivery of LEAP engines for the A320neo and 737 MAX is delayed.
It’s not just the big-ticket items that are hurting the Big Three airframe manufacturers. It’s the little stuff. The supply chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Some smaller suppliers can’t get the products they need from their suppliers. And some, already facing workforce shortages before the COVID-19 pandemic, are short of workers today.
These issues are causing a shift in what used to be the mantra of Just in Time product deliveries.
Boeing is trying to help its supply chain on a number of levels, said Mike Nieman, Regional Director of Globalization & Supplier Development, during the I-90 Corridor Conference last week in Coeur D’Alene (ID). The group represents the aerospace industry from Spokane (WA) through Idaho and into Montana along the Interstate 90 highway corridor.
Pontifications: Airbus delays for A220 tied to supply chain issues
By Scott Hamilton
May 23, 2022, © Leeham News: The delivery delays for the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX get all the headlines. But Airbus also has delivery delays for the Airbus Canada A220.
There are at least three A220s missing cockpit installations on the ramp at the Mirabel Airport final assembly line with more coming off the FAL, LNA is told. The number of A220s with this traveled work at the Mobile (AL) FAL is not known. Some quality control issues at the Mobile plant, which is still in its learning curve phase, have been reported.
Impact of Russian Airspace Closure on the World’s longest flight
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
May 19, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at what the closure of Russian airspace would mean for a mid-European cargo airline. A cargo plane has a shorter range, and the difference in flight distance meant that the cost of transporting cargo from Far-East to West Europe increased considerably as cargo payload was reduced.
We now check what the Russian airspace closure means for the World’s longest flight, Singapore Airlines flight SQ23/SQ24 between New York and Singapore.
Summary
- The flight from New York to Singapore has changed the routing after the 24th of February. It now avoids Russian and Ukrainian airspace.
- It results in a longer flight but the cost increase shall not pose a profitability problem on this premium route.
Mind the gap between announced and actual production rates
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
May 9, 2022, © Leeham News: As passenger traffic is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in the Americas and Western Europe, many airlines are eager to take delivery of more fuel-efficient aircraft. Higher oil prices and ambitious plans to reduce carbon emissions are driving new-generation aircraft demand, notably for the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX families.
A combination of supply chain disruptions and challenges associated with increased production means that Airbus and Boeing aren’t ramping-up A320neo and 737 MAX production as much as they would like. Boeing fell short last year on its 737 MAX production targets. The American company is also dealing with multiple delays in the resumption of Dreamliner deliveries.
In recent years there have been significant gaps between announced and actual production rates. The gaps have a material impact on projected OEM revenues, cashflows, and incomes.
LNA analyzes aircraft production rates on all the Airbus and Boeing programs since 2010 to assess whether the gaps were as significant in the past. LNA also evaluates the programs that were the closest and furthest away from announced production plans.
Summary
- A metric to measure production line consistency;
- Relatively consistent Single-Aisle rates;
- More volatile twin-aisle rates;
- A more consistent OEM.
Pontifications: Next new mainline jet likely will be conventionally powered
By Scott Hamilton
May 9, 2022, © Leeham News: Pratt & Whitney thinks a hybrid-electric propulsion system might be ready for installation on the next new airplane from Boeing or Airbus by 2031. But more likely is that the new airplane, whatever design it is, will more likely be powered by a conventional engine that is capable of running on 100% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).
Graham Webb, the chief sustainability officer at Pratt & Whitney, said PW is “obviously investing in our Geared TurboFan. That’s our bread and butter. We are working to infuse a large number of technologies, including ceramic matrix composites, and aerodynamic improvements to the turbines and the compressor. We’re working on improving the cooling optimization and sealing, and the traditional core efficiency suite of technologies to enable us to get to the higher overall temperatures we need for the next generation cycles.
“We’ve already completed a suite of work with the FAA and our clean aviation program that enabled us to expand the bypass ratio of our Geared TurboFan engine further from where we are till now. We’re going to use that technology to grow the engine. We’ll put a different fan-drive gear system technology as a result of that expansion. That’s kind of like the traditional engine efficiency piece,” Webb said at the Aviation Week’s MRO Americas event in Dallas. LNA spoke with Webb on the sidelines of the huge event, attended by more than 13,000 people.
Under the FAA CLEEN Phase I program, PW developed ultra-high bypass ratio technologies beyond the current 12:1 present in today’s GTF engines. These technologies are ready for deployment for a future new aircraft. The specific bypass ratio of this new engine will be optimized to each installation on the new airframe configurations being developed by the airframers, a spokesperson added.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 18. Advanced Hydrogen Gas Turbines
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 6, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we looked at how we create the shaft power for the thrust device we discussed before. We described the basics of a hydrogen-burning gas turbine alternative.
When we have liquid hydrogen as fuel, several advanced developments are possible. It’s what we look at now.
Figure 1. Airbus ZEROe hydrogen gas turbine concepts. Source: Airbus.