Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 21. May 9, 2025
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 2. May 8, 2025
- Embraer downplays tariff impact on 2025 results May 6, 2025
- JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising May 5, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 20. May 2, 2025
Pontifications: Southwest didn’t invite Airbus to bid
By Scott Hamilton
April 5, 2021, © Leeham News: Southwest Airlines didn’t ask Airbus to submit a commercial bid for the A220-300, three knowledgeable sources tell Leeham News.
Southwest conducted an internal technical analysis of the A220-300 vs. the 737-7 MAX. The A220-300 offered better economics. But this competed against the costs of retaining a common 737 fleet.
“Southwest acknowledged the merits of the A220, but there was no competition” for a commercially-based bid, LNA is told.
The airline placed an order on March 29 for 100 737-7s. Southwest said the order was an outgrowth of talks with Boeing for compensation due to the 20-month grounding of the MAX.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of hydrogen. Part 31. Wrap-up: Where we stand
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 2, 2021, ©. Leeham News: It’s time to wrap up our series on the hydrogen airliner alternative for Sustainable Commercial Aviation.
We review the status for sustainable aviation as of today, then look at the future next week.
Figure 1. The first certified electric aircraft, the Pipistrel Velis Electro. Source: Pipistrel.
The A350, Part 12 Wrap Up
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By Bjorn Fehrm and Vincent Valery
Introduction
Apr. 1, 2021, © Leeham News: After extensively discussing the A350 family and comparing it with its main competitors, it is now time to wrap up the series.
Summary
- Success after a few false starts;
- Equal share in the twin-aisle market within reach;
- Lineup strengths and weaknesses;
- Looking ahead.
Pontifications: Recovery plans from the pandemic at ATR, De Havilland
By Scott Hamilton
March 29, 2021, © Leeham News: Aviation stakeholders’ attention understandably focuses on Airbus and Boeing as the industry works its way through the COVID-19 pandemic. Embraer gets less attention than the Big Two.
But two other OEMs must be considered as well: ATR and De Havilland Canada.
Outside of China and Russia, whose home-grown industries sell only to these markets, ATR and DHC are the only manufacturers of turboprops in the 50-90 seat sectors.
LNA revealed on Jan. 12 that DHC would suspend Dash 8-400 production after the small backlog rolled off the assembly line. The privately held company delivered 11 airplanes last year due to the pandemic.
About 900 aging regional turboprop aircraft need to be replaced in the coming years.
Airbus trails Boeing in US in-service airplanes but leads with backlog
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
March 29, 2021, © Leeham News: As airlines across the global struggle to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, Airbus faces a weakened Boeing.
Some might argue Airbus has the advantage over Boeing, which is beset by a huge inventory of 737 MAXes and a growing number of undelivered 787s.
Others might argue that Boeing, desperate for cash, faced with billions of dollars of customer compensation claims and MAX whitetails, is willing to cut prices below levels Airbus will match.
There is anecdotal evidence Boeing is slashing MAX prices. Two high-profile campaigns in the US are illustrative. Last week, LNA examined bake-offs between Airbus and Boeing for Alaska Airlines and Southwest Airlines. United Airlines appeared to place an opportunistic order for 25 MAX 9 whitetails.
This week, LNA takes a deep dive into the competitive situation between Airbus and Boeing in the US.
Summary
- Adjusting for pre-pandemic in-service fleets, Airbus trails Boeing in the US but not by much for in the narrowbody sector.
- However, Boeing overwhelms Airbus in the widebody sector.
- Airbus currently has a lopsided lead in backlog orders for narrowbodies, but this lead is unlikely to hold.
- Airbus also currently leads in backlog orders for widebodies, but one large order is squishy.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of hydrogen. Part 30. Integrated nacelles.
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 26, 2021, ©. Leeham News: This week, we look at combining the propulsion and hydrogen tank in an integrated nacelle as Airbus proposes in Figure 1.
Airbus calls it its “pod” solution. What are the advantages, and what challenges does it present?
Figure 1. Airbus concept for a turboprop with integrated nacelles. Source: Airbus.
The A350, Part 11: Can a standard A350-1000 fly the project Sunrise route?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 25, 2021, © Leeham News: When Qantas announced the Airbus A350-1000 as the winner for project Sunrise over Boeing’s 777-8 December 2019, we did articles about the choice. We found that the A350-1000 could fly the toughest route, Sydney to London but with modifications.
Airbus has since told the press they can now do it with an improved standard A350-1000. We revisit the case to see how “standard” such an A350-1000 is.
A350-1000. Source: QANTAS
Summary
- The A350-1000 can fly the most challenging project Sunrise route, Sydney to London if it uses QANTAS special ultra long haul flight routings.
- Airbus has gradually improved the A350-1000 so that it can now fly the route with modest adaptations.
Did Airbus miss opportunities with Alaska, Southwest?
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
March 22, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus lost an order from Alaska Airlines, which means the carrier will essentially revert to an all-Boeing fleet.
Alaska Airlines ordered more Boeing 737 MAXes instead of Airbus A321neos. Southwest Airlines appears ready to order the 737-7 MAX instead of Airbus A220-300s. Were these real opportunities? Photo by Boeing.
And despite the apparent high-profile loss of a potential order from Boeing loyalist Southwest Airlines, Airbus is holding its ground in the USA.
Did Airbus miss opportunities to gain ground?
It all depends on how you look at it.
Summary
- Alaska Airlines chose to eliminate the Airbus A319s and A320s inherited with the 2016 acquisition of Virgin America. It’s not going to retain the orders for A320neos. And it passed on ordering more A321neos when it recently placed a follow-on order for Boeing 737-9s.
- It looks all but sure Southwest Airlines will pass on ordering the Airbus A220-300 for its sub-150-seat fleet requirement. Boeing looks poised to win a big order from Southwest for the slow-selling 737-7 MAX.
- Neither outcome, however, was unexpected.
Pontifications: Embraer’s China ambitions
March 22, 2021, © Leeham News: Embraer wants to become a big player in China.
By Scott Hamilton
“We see a huge market potential there,” said Arjan Meijer, CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation, in an interview with Nikkei Asia. The news outlet continued, “The company expects worldwide demand for 5,500 jets with up to 150 seats over the next 10 years. A third of that will come from Asia, with a large part of it from China, Meijer added.”
However, China presents risks and few rewards to companies wishing to gain a significant foothold. This is especially true for commercial aviation companies. China has high ambitions for the commercial aviation industry. Partnering with China in this sector produced more heartbreak than success.
The A350, Part 10 Project Sunrise Intro
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Mar. 18, 2021, © Leeham News: After assessing the performance of the A350-1000 against the 777-300ER on a trans-Pacific route, we turn our attention to a dedicated A350 variant developed for Qantas’ Project Sunrise.
Summary
- The holy grail of ultra-long-haul routes;
- A limited market;
- A350-1000 “ULR” against 777-8;
- Reasons for Qantas’ choice.