Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of hydrogen. Part 22. Hydrogen fuel cells

By Bjorn Fehrm

January 29, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Over the last weeks, we looked at Center of Gravity (CG) problems with rear fuselage liquid hydrogen tanks as used in Airbus’ ZEROe turbofan airliner concept. We can conclude that the CG shift is manageable for a short-range aircraft (range below 2,000nm).

Now we spend the next Corners diving into hydrogen fuel cell technology and how it can benefit a hydrogen-fueled airliner.

Figure 1, The principle of a hydrogen fuel cell. Source: Airbus.

Read more

The A350, Part 3: The A350-800 versus A330-900

Subscription Required

By Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction  

January 28, 2020, © Leeham News: Last week, we analyzed the smallest member of the Airbus A350 family, the A350-800. After Airbus changed the variant to a non-optimal “cut and shut” variant, it was no longer competitive.

Airbus froze the development of the A350-800 and then let it slip out of the program (it’s never officially canceled). The A330neo became the replacement for the A350-800. Was this the right decision? Is the A330neo the better airplane?

Summary
  • We saw the A350-800 in its final form had a problem competing with Boeing’s 787. This created a problem for the Airbus widebody program below 300 seats.
  • After a thorough investigation, Airbus found a way to update the A330 to take the place of the A350-800. We use our airliner performance model to find out how well the replacement performs.

Read more

Podcast: 10 Minutes About the A321XLR and Why Boeing Can’t Compete

Jan. 26, 2021: © Leeham News: Today’s episode is 10 Minutes About the A321XLR and Why Boeing Can’t Compete. LNA’s Judson Rollins worked for Boeing when the MAX was created. He brings an airline background as well, having worked for Air New Zealand and Continental.

Read more

Pontifications: Airbus slows A320 production ramp up; widebody rates squishy

By Scott Hamilton

Jan. 25, 2021, © Leeham News: JP Morgan thinks Boeing 787 production rates will come down more than the 5/mo planned from May.

Airbus last week announced ramping up A320 rates will be slower than previously hoped.

And Airbus’ widebody rates, while maintained for now, seem squishy.

Read more

Small jet demand likely to stay depressed after COVID

Subscription Required

By Judson Rollins

Introduction 

January 25, 2020, © Leeham News: As passenger travel trickles back to life, one trend that’s already apparent is a long-term diminution of airline yields in most regions.

This is largely driven by a reduction in business travel, some of which is likely to never return.

Regional jets and small single-aisles like the Airbus A220 and Embraer’s E2 family have higher unit cost, or cost per available seat-mile (CASM), than larger aircraft like the Boeing 737 or Airbus A320.

Achieving an operating profit with smaller jets requires high unit revenue, or revenue per available seat-mile (RASM). This will be difficult to achieve in a world where business travel is still down 70%-80% this year, even with a vaccine – and may be down 30% or more permanently.

What role will these smaller jets have after the pandemic? And will production match this new reality? A closer look is required.

Summary

  • Regional jets and smaller single-aisles have higher unit costs.
  • High costs require higher unit revenue to be profitable.
  • Business travel likely slow to return, with some permanently impaired.
  • Smaller jets previously used for routes now in danger of demand fragmentation.

Read more

Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of hydrogen. Part 21. Hydrogen airliner weight shift

By Bjorn Fehrm

January 22, 2021, ©. Leeham News: In last week’s Corner, we looked at how the hydrogen consumed in the rear fuselage tanks changes the airliner’s Center of Gravity (CG).

Now we discuss how this change of Center of Gravity, limiting the aircraft’s load flexibility, can be mitigated with different concepts.

Figure 1. Airbus ZEROe turbofan airliner. Source: Airbus.

Read more

The A350, Part 2: Analyzing the A350-800

Subscription Required

By Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction  

January 21, 2020, © Leeham News: Before the holidays, we started a series to look into Airbus’ A350 family. We analyzed the development program and how the variants have sold.

Initially, the A350-800 won about 180 orders. But as the market received more information about the smaller variant, the more it realized it wasn’t an optimal airplane. It was never officially canceled. But orders was up-gauged to the A350-900. Airbus decided the variant wasn’t competitive and developed the A330neo instead. We now look into why.

Summary
  • The A350-800 was positioned as Airbus’ main defense against Boeing’s new 787-9, the most efficient variant of the Dreamliner.
  • As the A350 program was delayed, the A350-800 moved from an optimized variant to a “cut and shut” version. This compromised its efficiency.
  • Gradually Airbus changed its strategy how to compete with the 787.

Read more

Podcast: 10 Minutes About China’s Commercial Aviation Industry

Jan. 19, 2021, © Leeham News: Today’s edition is 10 Minutes About China’s commercial aviation industry.

China has one airliner in service, a second in flight testing and a third on the drawing board. Production is still a challenge.

We discuss how viable the airliners are and a bit about production–all in 10 minutes.

HOTR: Some predictions for Airbus and Boeing

Jan. 14, 2021, © Leeham News: Making predictions is always a hazardous business.

Some predictions take years to resolve. The outcome of others come sooner than later. If you’re right, you look sage. If you’re wrong, you look like an idiot.

But HOTR is going to take a stab at it anyway.

Read more

Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of hydrogen. Part 19. Hydrogen airliner weight shift

By Bjorn Fehrm

January 8, 2021, ©. Leeham News: In our Corner before Christmas we discussed the hydrogen tank placement at the rear of the aircraft for Airbus’ ZEROe concept turbofan aircraft.

We now calculate how the weight transfer when emptying the tanks in the rear affects the ZEROe’s efficiency.

 

Figure 1. Airbus ZEROe hydrogen turbofan airliner. Source: Airbus.

Read more