Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Business case for NMA remains uncertain
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Introduction
July 17, 2017, © Leeham Co.: We’re half way through 2017. Boeing reported orders through July 11, a week ago. Airbus won’t update its July orders until the end of the month.
Through July 11, Boeing reported 116 net wide-body orders: 15 for the 767, 33 for the 777 and 75 for the 787. Net cancellations of -7 for the 747 are included in the net 116 figure.
The 15 767s were not commercial models, however, but 767-2C tankers for the USAF.
Over at Airbus, none of China’s 40 commitments announced July 5 for 40 A350s are in the June summary, and won’t be in the Orders tally until the commitments turn into firm orders. Through June, airbus had net 26 widebody orders: three A330-200s and 29 A350-900. There were cancellations of four A330-800s and two A380s.
If the 40 China A350s were included, this would bring Airbus to 66 widebody orders, still well short of Boeing’s YTD figure.
Summary
- Airbus product gap widens as A330-200/800 stalls.
- Boeing 787 strength comes from 787-9; 787-8 remains minor player.
- Middle of the Market business case still unproved.
Electronic check-in is out in new US security plan
London Heathrow Airport. Photo via Google.
July 13, 2017. © Leeham Co.: If you thought the US government ban on carrying electronic devices on board airliners in the name of heightened security was bad, that was going to be a minor inconvenience compared with what is in the works, LNC has learned.
The US Department of Homeland Security may announce as soon as next week a series of revisions to check-in procedures outside the US that will set the airline world back 30 years.
An international carrier advised LNC of the following, revised procedures DHS has notified it that will be put in place between now and October.
Pontifications: 10 years after the Boeing 787 roll-out
By Scott Hamilton
July 10, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Saturday was the 10th anniversary of the roll-out of the Boeing 787. The date was 7/8/07, nicely coincided for the airplane’s name.
The event was an extravaganza never seen in commercial aviation, surpassing even that of the Boeing 707 in 1954.
Technology, of course, had a lot to do with the hyper-event 10 years ago. There was no Internet in 1954, no cable news networks, no laser light shows, etc.
There were also no orders for the 707 in 1954, compared with the hundreds for the 787 in 2007.
MAX 8 conversions to MAX 10 outweigh MAX 9
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Introduction
July 3, 2017, © Leeham Co.: There were conversions of 214 orders from other 737 MAX programs in favor of the 361 orders and commitments announced at the Paris Air Show for the launch of the 737 MAX 10.
Aside from the easily identifiable 100 MAX 9 orders from United Airlines, the other conversions weren’t readily apparent.
An analysis by LNC indicates that about half of the conversions came from the MAX 8.
Summary
- The MAX 10 orders and commitments surpass the MAX 9 after PAS, becoming the second most in-demand of the MAX family.
- LNC estimates that about 300 orders remain for the MAX 9, higher if Lion Air’s MAX order is allocated on a pro-rata basis.
- A lot of MAX 8/9 series orders are TBD, with no immediate selection by the customer.
Qantas’ ultra-long haul dream, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 28, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It’s now time to continue our article on how Qantas could fly the coveted route Sydney-London direct.
Our first article aired the 25th of May. A knowledgeable Qantas person contacted us after the article. He explained there is a smarter way to plan Ultra-Long-Haul (ULR) flying than we assumed.
After an interesting dialogue, we can now continue the article series. Qantas taught us a trick or two how to fly ULR missions.
While there was nothing wrong in our route data from article one, there is a clever way to avoid the flight distance from escalating on windy days.
Summary:
- The direct distance Sydney-London is 9,200nm the shortest way.
- On a windy day, this would extend to 10,000nm air distance when going West, if smarts aren’t used.
- We now explain how an airline excelling in Ultra-Long-Haul flights over oceanic waters, caps the longest distances it has to fly.
Decision detailed (sort of) in Boeing-Bombardier price dumping case
June 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The US International Trade Commission (ITC) last week released its detailed decision to go forward with the Boeing complaint that Bombardier engaged in price dumping when it sold the CS100 to Delta Air Lines.
But for the outsider, the public document isn’t much help. It’s heavily redacted and left out all the good stuff that would allow an outsider to fully understand the reasoning the ITC voted 5-0 to send the case over to the US Commerce Department for further study and potential imposition of tariffs.
Delta Air Lines Bombardier CS100.
Propelled by MAX 10, Boeing thumps Airbus at Paris Air Show
June 22, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The Boeing 737 MAX 10 received a rousing endorsement from lessors and airlines last week at the Paris Air Show.
There were 361 orders and commitments announced, blowing through Boeing’s own forecast Monday of 240 orders. Never mind that 214 are conversions from other MAX orders, a fact Airbus COO Customers John Leahy used to downplay the program launch: the performance is a dramatic contrast to the poor reception Boeing received only three months earlier, at the ISTAT conference in San Diego, when a soft launch was rolled out by Boeing.
Boeing’s a revisionist, Airbus isn’t, says product head
June 21, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing, after years of struggling sales, finally dropped the iconic 747 passenger airplane from its 20-year forecast, revealed publicly yesterday at the Paris Air Show.
Boeing in fact eliminated the entire Very Large Aircraft sector (400 passengers and up) from its forecast, the Current Market Outlook.
The forecast for the 747-8F now is part of a new category, Freighters, which encompasses all sizes. Boeing projects a need for 920 freighters in the next 20 years.
Rival Airbus continues to forecast a need for 1,400 VLAs in its Global Market Forecast.
Boeing launches 737 MAX 10 with 240 orders/Update with orders
Update: Early order announcements at the end of this post.
June 19, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing made it official today: the 737 MAX 10 was launched at the Paris Air Show with 240 sales.
More than 10 customers–to be identified later–ordered the airplane, said Kevin McAllister, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
The MAX 10 challenges the Airbus A321, which has outsold the 737 MAX 9 by a factor of three or four to one, depending on how orders are measured.
Early results show MAX performance better than forecast
June 18, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It’s too soon to draw conclusions, but early indications of in-service operations of the Boeing 737-8 MAX are that it’s slightly bettering performance expectations.
Boeing delivered its first 737-8 MAX May 16 to Lion Air’s Malindo Air subsidiary.
Malindo Air Boeing 737-8 MAX. Photo via Google.
Keith Leverkuhn, VP and GM of the MAX program, said the long-range delivery flight of Malindo’s first MAX impressed the pilots with how little fuel was burned, but the in-service, short-haul operation is too young to draw any definitive conclusions about fuel consumption.
However, early indications are that fuel burn is better than forecast. The engines are the new CFM LEAP-1B.
Dispatch reliability is also meeting plan, he said.
Leverkuhn made the remarks in advance of a media tour of the new MAX 9 and the Boeing 787-10, both on display for the first time at the Paris Air Show.