Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Start-up nears airport Aircraft Towing System tests
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By Scott Hamilton
May 16, 2022, © Leeham News: A start-up company is 60-90 days away from landing a contract with a US airport to install a prototype system that will pull airplanes around the field, eliminating taxiing with engines or tugs.
The ATS airport channel system. Source: ATS.
ATS Worldwide (for Aircraft Towing System) proposes a network of trench-like guides equipped with a flexible tow mechanism that captures the nose gear to tow airplanes from the regional jet to the Airbus A380. It’s all done with automation. No new equipment, other than a nose camera, is added to the airplane. This eliminates added weight and complexity, or the need for a Supplemental Type Certificate, proposed by Wheel Tug. No external tug, like Taxibot, takes the airplane to the end of the runway. This eliminates airfield conflicts, ATS said during the Aviation Week MRO Americas conference last month in Dallas.
But constructing a network of towing trenches from the gate, across the ramp, to the taxiways and the runways, presents its own challenges. Constructing the network won’t be inexpensive. Funding sources must be identified. The Federal Aviation Administration and other regulators must be convinced that the system will be safe. Regulatory standards must be prepared.
And the elephant in the room will be the reaction from unions whose ground handlers, wing walkers, etc., face losing jobs or fewer jobs.
The big advantages: eliminating the need for hundreds of tugs at an airport. Reduction in fuel required to taxi airplanes, major cost savings for the airlines. A reduction in emissions, a growing goal, especially in Europe and the USA. Finally, there can be lower headcounts by the airlines and airports, another cost savings.
Implementation, if all goes well, is years away. But a prototype system for proof-of-concept is expected to be activated at the Ardmore (OK) airport in 60-90 days. At least three major hub airports are reviewing proposals for initial demonstration projects as well, ATS says.
Impact of Russian Airspace Closure on mid-European airlines
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
May 5, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at what the closure of Russian airspace would mean for North European airlines that fly to Asia destinations like Japan, Korea, or Mainland China.
Our example was Finnair’s route from Helsinki to Tokyo and what it would mean for it cost-wise to fly over the North pole and then down to Tokyo instead of over Russia.
We now continue the analysis with what the air space closure means for a West European airline like Air France. We check the cost increase to fly from Paris to Seoul in South Korea when you can’t use Russian and Ukrainian air space.
Air France 777-300ER. Source: Wikipedia.
Summary
- The costs for Air France from Russia’s airspace closure are more manageable than for Finnair.
- Longer-term, it will mean changes to the route structure for affected airlines.
Impact of Russian Airspace Closure on Finnair
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
April 28, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we started an article series that looks at the impact of the closure of the Russian airspace for Western airlines.
We start with analyzing how Finnair’s cost base changes as it routes Helsinki to Tokyo has to fly over the north pole and then down to Tokyo instead of over Russia. How will this affect the airline’s costs and the payload carrying capacity of the aircraft?
Summary
- The costs for Finnair on the route increase significantly.
- Part of this increase is increased fuel prices, affecting all airlines. Others are tied to avoiding Russian airspace.
Assessing passenger airline fuel efficiency
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
April 4, 2022, © Leeham News: Fuel prices abruptly increased just as travel restrictions started easing after the Covid-19 Omicron wave. The oil price increase accelerated after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. What would have seemed unthinkable 20 months ago has arrived: fuel prices are back to their 2010-14 levels.
Most airlines are still healings their wounds from the Covid-19 pandemic. Higher fuel prices are an unwelcome feature that will delay their return to profitability if not significantly complicate it.
Considering the above, LNA thought it relevant to assess the fuel efficiency of the major passenger airlines’ fleets.
Summary
- The paradox and challenges of fuel hedging;
- Explaining the fuel efficiency score methodology;
- Twin-aisle, single-aisle, and regional airline rankings.
HOTR: Putin can shut down commercial aviation, consultant warned
Feb. 24, 2022, © Leeham News: The invasion by Russia into Ukraine could shut down commercial aviation production, a supply chain consultant expert predicted earlier this month.
Kevin Michaels, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory, a supply-chain consulting firm, warned at a supplier conference Feb. 8 that Russian President Vladimir Putin “could shut down the commercial aerospace business if he chose to do so.”
HOTR: ULCCs Frontier, Spirit announce plans to merge
Feb. 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Frontier and Spirit airlines today announced plans to merge. The combination will create the USA’s fifth largest carrier and combine the two largest Ultra Low-Cost Carriers (ULCC) in the United States.
Shareholders of Frontier will own 51.5% of the new company, and seven of the 12 board members will be appointed by Frontier. The largest shareholder is Indigo Partners, whose chairman, Bill Franke, becomes chair of the combined airline. Indigo once was the largest shareholder in Spirit. Indigo sold its shareholdings and Franke resigned from the Spirit board when Indigo bought control of Frontier.
It hasn’t been decided what the brand of the new company will be.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 4. Reality checks.
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 28, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Having discussed where investments would be the most efficient in alleviating our Greenhouse gas problems and identified the low-hanging fruit, we now look at new technology airplanes that can improve the situation.
We start with classical airliners, working our way from small types to the largest, then we discuss the impact of new transport forms like VTOLs for short-haul transportation.
As we will use the Leeham Aircraft Performance Model in some of the work, there will be extra articles (for this one, a Part 4P) which are Paywall, where we use the model to generate deeper data and understanding.
Figure 1. The Alice nine-seater drawings from Eviation’s Web. The present drawing (dark blue) differs from the mid-2021 drawing (light blue, on top). Source: Eviation and Leeham Co.
Carbon footprint: Regional jet versus turboprop, how large is the difference?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
January 27, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we kicked off a series of articles where we will measure what difference our choice of flying makes to the primary Greenhouse gas emission, CO2.
We have upgraded our airliner performance model for the series to give a direct output of the CO2 emissions for the flights in different phases.
We start this week by comparing a typical domestic feeder flight of 300 nm, with an example route of Cleveland to Chicago O’Hare. What will be the time differences? And the fuel burn and CO2 emission difference?
To make it a fair comparison, we’ll use present generation aircraft flying on the US market, the Embraer E175 and De Havilland’s DH 8-400. We will fly the DH 8 at a high-speed cruise to keep the flight time differences within 10 minutes.
Horizon Air DH 8-400. Source: Wikipedia.
Summary
- As expected, the turboprop is the more efficient mode of transportation on the route. It consequently emits less CO2 per transported passenger.
- With new, more comfortable turboprops in the works, the drive for sustainability could see a return of the turboprop to the US market.
Is the cargo capacity deciding the airliner variant? Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
October 7, 2021, © Leeham News: In last week’s article, we could see today’s high cargo prices can motivate a 325 seat Airbus A350-900 even though the passenger load on the routes would point to a 240 seat A330-800.
How far does this “paying for a larger aircraft with belly cargo” paradigm go? Today we see if Airbus’ largest aircraft, the A350-1000, can generate the margins of the A350-900 on freight-rich routes. Can an airline that has an A350-900 sized passenger demand for such routes go to an A350-1000 instead?
Summary
- The increased yields for air cargo leads to surprising effects. Oversized passenger models can survive the passenger drought on today’s international routes as long as it’s a route with good freight demand.
Major upcoming carrier re-fleetings
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
July 26, 2021, © Leeham News: As passenger traffic in the USA recovers, carriers’ operating cash flow turned consistently positive. With increased confidence in a sustainable passenger recovery, some airlines started ordering or purchasing planes again.
United Airlines 787-10
LNA outlined in a previous article that the pace of passenger traffic recovery differs significantly by region and country. Several domestic markets, notably China and the USA, are back to levels approaching those seen in 2019. Other markets, notably intercontinental or intra-Asia travel, remains depressed.
The carriers that placed large orders undoubtedly did so to capitalize on favorable pricing from OEMs and cheap financing. However, behind the headline-grabbing order figures lie that their fleets are aging fast and had under-ordered in previous years.
LNA singles out in this article the carriers that will have to place sizable orders to rejuvenate their fleets in the next five years, considering regional factors.
Summary
- The 40,000 feet view of re-fleeting needs;
- US carriers lead in old metal needing replacement;
- Potential acceleration of replacement plans in Europe;
- Lower near-term replacement needs in Asia-Pacific.