Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
Boeing sees long-term demand bouncing back after pandemic
July 16, 2022, © Leeham News: After years of market turmoil, Boeing and Airbus see brighter skies–and bigger order backlogs–ahead. Both companies maintained confidence that demand for aircraft would bounce back as the COVID-19 pandemic ebbed. Passenger traffic and aircraft utilization seem to back up their optimism. Traffic is bouncing back despite short-term economic concerns, a pandemic that is still smoldering and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Boeing projects demand for 39,050 new commercial aircraft, excluding regional jets, over the next two decades, according to its Current Market Outlook, which it released Saturday. The company’s forecast is in line with Airbus’ forecast of demand for 39,500 aircraft. Single-aisle aircraft make up three-quarters of demand in both companies’ outlooks. Boeing is slightly more bullish on passenger widebody demand.
Sustainability is an increasingly important factor in Boeing’s market outlook. It is also a relatively new variable, and how much it will shape market demand and in what ways is not very clear.
Pontifications: China still needs Boeing as much as Boeing needs China
By Scott Hamilton
July 11, 2022, © Leeham News: The July 1 announcement by Airbus that it won orders for 292 airplanes from China, for the Big Three carriers, was treated as a shocker by some.
Boeing, which has been frozen out of the Chinese market since 2017, blamed geopolitical issues for its dry spell. To be blunter, blame it on former President Donald Trump, who began a trade war with China that inexplicably continues well into the first term of the Biden Administration.
Trump’s shoot-from-the-lip foreign policy routinely failed to consider geopolitical issues. Joe Biden is more thoughtful, but 18 months into his presidency has done little to repair relations with China. To be sure, there must be a balance when dealing with China and trade.
The country routinely engages in cyber-based industrial espionage, and this must be stopped. Honoring intellectual property rights is mere rhetoric by Beijing. But about a third of orders for Airbus and Boeing historically come from China. Boeing has about 140 737 MAXes in long-term storage destined for China. Despite global air traffic recovery, China’s zero-tolerance policy toward COVID continues to suppress domestic demand, another factor in Boeing’s storage problem.
But geopolitics is a real issue. Here’s what Boeing said following the Airbus order:
What Boeing needs to do for digital, production transformation for new commercial airliner
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By Scott Hamilton
Greg Hyslop. Credit: Leeham News.
July 4, 2022, © Leeham News: When Boeing launches its next new commercial airplane program, whatever the design, advanced development, and production are intended to be a key part of the plan.
Officials have been hinting at this approach since the administration of CEO Jim McNerney. His successor, Dennis Muilenburg, opened the veil a bit more. David Calhoun, Muilenburg’s successor, has been more open about the concept.
Last month, Greg Hyslop, the executive vice president of Engineering, Test & Technology and the chief engineer for Boeing, was the most revealing yet. In a briefing in advance of the Farnborough Air Show that begins on July 18, detailed how digital design and advanced production will fit into the Next Boeing Airplane (NBA) plan.
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Boeing’s new approach to aircraft design, production, and assembly is illustrated above. The Defense unit used this for the T-7 Red Hawk trainer and the MQ-25 unmanned Navy refueling tanker. But a lot of work is necessary to migrate this to Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Credit: Boeing.
However, Hyslop acknowledged that these advanced design and production processes must transition from low-rate defense projects to high-rate commercial airplanes. This is the “maturity” Boeing CEO said recently is required before the NBA proceeds.
Summary
- Scalability is key to migrating digital and production transformation from defense to commercial.
- Lessons learned from 787 an important step.
- Rebuilding the workforce also required for the next new Boeing airplane.
Best business; Under-floor Cargo or Dedicated Freighter. Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 30, 2022, © Leeham News: What is the best business? To transport cargo below the floor in passenger airliners or dedicated freighter aircraft?
We analyzed the cost of flying air freight from Shanghai to Denver last week. It was forwarded as a below-floor pallet or on a dedicated freighter.
We found the allocatable fuel costs were lower when piggybacking on passenger aircraft, but it’s not the whole story. Now we go a level deeper.
Summary
- For fuel costs, the belly cargo alternative was the lower-cost alternative.
- This changed when we added other operational costs.
Boeing’s ecoDemonstrator latest in 10 year effort
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By Scott Hamilton
This Boeing 777-200ER is the latest in the company’s 10-year ecoD program. Credit: Boeing.
June 27, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing’s unveiling of a 777-200ER ecoDemonstrator on June 14 is the latest “ecoD” airplane during the past 10 years in its continuing research for environmentally preferred solutions.
This is the second 777 in the ecoD program. The first was an airplane operated by FedEx. Others were the 737NG, 757, and 737-9 MAX. Each platform hosts a suite of ideas for research to reduce fuel burn, test different airplane and cabin materials and new “environmentally preferred” components, liquids, gases, etc.
Many of the items would not justify stand-alone research, Boeing says. For example, on a previous ecoD, recessed upper and lower rotating beacon lights were part of the technology suite. Also, some ideas aren’t strictly a “thing”, but procedures intended to reduce taxi time, fuel use and concepts to make flying more efficient.
The 777 ecoD unveiled two weeks ago will test a new heads-up display that is worn by the pilots. Heads-up displays have been around for decades. Military aircraft were among the first applications. Alaska Airlines was the first carrier to use them for flights. But these HUDs are mounted above the instrument panels at eye level. Integration into the cockpit is costly and complex. A HUD incorporated into glasses or goggles is one less thing that goes into the cockpit which must be disposed of at a future date.
The new ecoD will also test new taxi procedures intended to reduce fuel burn and emissions.
Summary
- The total life cycle, from “birth” to recycling is part of the drive toward environmentally preferred design and production.
- The jury is still out on whether composites and aluminum at recycling is preferred. But the differences have narrowed.
- There’s a “good chance” Boeing’s next new airplane, whatever it is, will be composite—but it’s not a given. Folding wings may be a feature.
Pontifications: Boeing vows to maintain freighter dominance
By Scott Hamilton
June 27, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing dominated the jet freighter market from the dawn of the jet age. It aims to keep its dominance.
But for the first time since the collapse of McDonnell Douglas in 1997, Boeing is being credibly challenged by Airbus and P2F conversions. Airbus is selling the A350F. EFW, which is a joint venture between Airbus and ST Aerospace, and IAI Bedek offer freighter conversions for the A330. The A350F is Airbus’ first credible challenge to Boeing’s dominance in the widebody freighter section. (The A300-600RF was a niche aircraft. A310 combis and the A330-200F were unsuccessful.)
EFW, Precision Conversions, and nominally at least two others offer conversions for the A320/321. There are more than 100 A330 P2F and at least five dozen A320/321 P2F orders, marking the first challenge to Boeing’s dominance in narrowbody freighters converted by the aftermarket.
Boeing has been testing the market for months on whether to launch a conversion program for the 777-300ER. Boeing Global Services announced in 2018 at the Farnborough Air Show that it was launching a -300ER P2F program, but never followed through. If Boeing proceeds this time, it faces competition from IAI Bedek, Mammoth Freighters, and Kansas Modification Center, each of which already has firm orders for about 65 conversions.
Commercial Aircraft programs duration from launch to delivery over the years
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
June 20, 2022, © Leeham News: New airplane programs used to come to market in four years. Now, the launch-to-entry-into-service period has been seven years or more. (Chinese and Russian programs take even longer.)
Boeing launched the 787 in December 2003. EIS was October 2011. Airbus’ A350, launched in response to the 787 in 2004, went through several iterations which added time to the program. Delays added more time. EIS was in January 2015.
Bombardier’s C Series was launched in 2008. EIS was in July 2016. The Boeing 777X was launched in 2013. EIS is now targeted for 2025. Boeing launched the 747-8 in 2005. EIS was in 2011. The Boeing 737 MAX was launched in July 2011. EIS was May 2017. Airbus’ A320neo was launched in December 2010. EIS was in January 2016.
Boeing has been discussing the New Midmarket Airplane (or whatever it was called throughout changing nomenclature) since 2012. It still hasn’t launched the program. Once it does, how long will it take to enter service?
Credit: Boeing
Any new program is a multi-year, multi-million investment that, in the worst case, can take decades before recovering the initial development and production ramp-up expenditures.
Several recent programs, notably the 777X, have faced significant delays between the envisioned and actual start of deliveries to airlines.
Boeing claims that advances in manufacturing techniques will reduce the time required to develop the next aircraft program. However, regulatory scrutiny is higher nowadays and the aircraft built are more complex than in previous generations.
LNA analyzes how the time between the program launch and entry into service has evolved since the beginning of the Jet Age. The goal is to find whether there is a trend and in what direction. The analysis focuses on Airbus, Boeing, Lockheed, and McDonnell Douglas.
Summary
- An unmistakable trend;
- The latest clean sheet designs took significantly longer;
- Engine development dictates recent derivative program timelines;
- Future program considerations.
Pontifications: Why I’m cautiously optimistic about Boeing’s future
By Scott Hamilton
June 20, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing still has a deep hole to climb out of. There’s still plenty of opportunity for missteps along the way. But I’m cautiously optimistic about Boeing’s future.
Here’s why.
- There are tangible things to point to that are indicators Boeing internally is now optimistic about its long flirtation with disaster.
- Despite well-deserved skepticism and concern about when, or even if, Boeing is going to launch a new airplane program, signs point to “yes.” These go beyond the usual rhetoric that often has a hollow public relations ring.
- The signs are there that Boeing at long last appears near resuming delivery of the 787, a critical step in its recovery.
- Clearing the inventory of the 737 has been infuriatingly slow. But if one had been paying close attention, this shouldn’t have been a surprise—and China’s refusal so far to authorize its airlines to return the MAX to service is but one issue.
FAA adopts ICAO 2027 emissions, noise rules; death knell for new production 767F, 777F
- 787F, NMA-F are natural conclusions to consider for a successor to 767F
By Scott Hamilton
June 16, 2022, © Leeham News: The US Federal Aviation Administration yesterday announced it will adopt the emissions and noise rules proposed in 2017 to reduce emissions and noise in commercial jets and turboprops by 2027. Failure to comply means the offending airplanes can’t be produced from 2028. The rules won’t affect airplanes already produced.
New emissions and noise rules mean production of the Boeing 767-300ERF must end in 2027. Credit: Leeham News.
The FAA’s move means that Boeing’s popular 767-300ERF and 777-200LRF can’t be produced from 2028.
The rules were adopted by the global organization ICAO, the International Civil Aviation Organization. But countries individually must adopt them. The FAA proposes a new rule to bring the US into compliance. By federal law, the FAA proposed rule must be published in the Federal Register. A comment period follows, after which the FAA either moves forward with the rule as proposed, revises it, or rejects its proposed rule based on the comments.
Boeing already announced a successor to the 777F: the 777-8F, a member of the 777X family. Entry-into-service is slated for mid-2027 before the rules take effect. Boeing doesn’t have a solution for the termination of the 767F production.
Migrating advanced processes from Defense to Commercial isn’t a cakewalk for Boeing
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By Scott Hamilton
June 13, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing’s CEOs, David Calhoun and his predecessors Dennis Muilenburg and Jim McNerney, said repeatedly the next Boeing airplane (NBA) will be as much as about production as it will be about the airplane. In fact, Calhoun says production is key to designing, producing, and delivering a less expensive airplane that will underpin the value proposition going forward.
Engine technology advances might achieve a 10% reduction over today’s CFM LEAP and Pratt & Whitney Geared TurboFan engines. So, advanced design and production is key to the business case for the NBA.
Despite using these advancements on Boeing defense programs (the T-7 Red Hawk trainer and MQ-25 unmanned aerial refueling airplane), assimilating them into commercial airplane development and production has high hurdles.
Summary
- Boeing has had mixed success using advanced technology design and production on its current commercial programs.
- Regulatory approvals will be challenging.
- Engines will be 10% better than the LEAP and GTF—but are these the correct comparisons?