Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Pontifications: Don’t lose sight of the future, says top Boeing exec
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 7, 2020, © Leeham News: “It’s really important that we stay in tune with the market dynamics, making the adjustments we need to do and not lose sight of the future. Which is absolutely we are not doing.”
Greg Smith, the of Enterprise Operations and chief financial officer for The Boeing Co., added, “We haven’t lost sight of the importance of making investments that are critical to the future of the business. So, when we think about future product strategy, we’re continuing to reprioritize and streamline our R&D investments to CapEx.
“When we were in pursuit around the NMA, we asked the team to step back and reassess the commercial development strategy and determine what family of aircraft to be needed for the future. And that team continues to work and they’re building off the work that we did on NMA.”
Smith made the remarks at last Friday’s Credit Suisse annual conference.
Boeing further trims 787 production; now sees 5/mo in 2021
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 4, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing will cut the production rate for the 787 to 5/mo by mid next year, it was revealed today. Officials previously announced a rate cut to 5/mo.
EVP Greg Smith made the announcement at the annual Credit Suisse conference, organized by analyst Robert Spingarn.
The rate adjustment is further indicative of the weakness in the widebody market.
Boeing also has a large number of undelivered 787s. This is due in part to COVID, but also due to quality control and safety issues. Earlier this year, Boeing revealed safety and QC issues emerged from body joins and other factors were discovered.
Deliveries unwinding the inventory will continue through 2021, Smith said.
Ryanair orders 737 MAX, giving boost to Boeing
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 3, 2020, © Leeham News: Ryanair today announced an order for 75 Boeing 737-8 200 MAXes.
This is the first big order for the airplane since the March 10-13, 2019, grounding. It’s the first since the US Federal Aviation Administration and Brazil’s ANAC lifted their grounding orders last month.
Europe’s EASA plans to lift its grounding order in January. Ryanair, of Ireland, can’t fly the MAX until EASA acts.
The deal is a boost for Boeing and a vote of confidence in the MAX. The global fleet was grounded following the second of two fatal accidents.
Restoring operations of the 737 MAX
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 1, 2020, ©. Leeham News: Boeing and its customer airlines have 837 MAX airliners that shall get back in the air. After the FAA and ANAC, Brazil’s regulator, have stated the conditions, the work can begin. EASA and Transport Canada will follow with eventual modifications on what needs to be done.
There can be no slip-ups when the 737 MAX flies again. Boeing and the airlines know this; hence there is no room for hurried work or compromises. It will take two years to get the job done, according to Boeing.
Boeing 737 MAX planes stored at Boeing Field. Source: Wikipedia/SounderBruce
HOTR: Boeing hopes for break in China order drought after electors vote for Biden:
By the Leeham News Team
Nov. 30, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing hopes the three-year order drought from China may come to an end next month.
The order, according to market intelligence, would be a boost for the slow-selling 777X. It could also mean new orders for the 787. Orders for the latter dropped significantly enough to prompt Boeing’s decision to shutter the Everett 787 production line next year. Production for the 787 will be consolidated in Charleston (SC).
Dec. 14 is when US presidential electors meet to cast their votes for Joe Biden or President Donald Trump, making official the projected winner. Biden won 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232 in projections by all the major media. With almost all votes counted—and in some cases, recounted—Biden has 51.1% of the vote to Trump’s 47.2%. Biden received 80.1m votes to Trump’s 73.9m. The margin was nearly 6.2m.
China hasn’t ordered a Boeing airplane since 2017. Trump launched a trade war with China that escalated several times. He charged, without evidence, that China interfered with the US presidential election.
Boeing hopes for a major order from China as early as December. Included would be a sorely needed order for the 777X. (Shown: Boeing 777-300ER.) Photo source: Boeing.
Pontifications: The risk of closing China to aerospace suppliers
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 30, 2020, © Leeham News: The Trump Administration this month indicated it might expand its ban on doing business with certain Chinese companies.
The Administration says the additional companies have ties to the military. Included in the listing is COMAC.
Reuters reported the move Nov. 13.
If the Administration follows through during its remaining lame-duck time in power, and if the new Biden Administration doesn’t reverse or modify the plan, the long-term effect could hurt the US aerospace supply chain.
2024 will be key year for Boeing in Washington
This is the second in a series of articles examining how labor, Boeing and Washington state could move forward following the COVID pandemic. The first article is here.
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By Bryan Corliss
Analysis
Introduction
Nov. 30, 2020, © Leeham News — You might want to set yourself an Outlook calendar reminder for January 2024.
It’s going to be a pivotal year for Boeing, its home state and its workforce. By then, the company’s recovery from the current Covid-caused crisis should be underway, with the order book refilling.
The countdown should be on for the long-delayed roll-out of the reconceived NMA, at long last giving Boeing a real counter to the Airbus A321. And — barring a surge in 737 MAX orders after its return to service — Boeing could be close to making some tough decisions about the future of the 737 program, thinking hard about whether after 60 years it’s finally time to design and build a clean-sheet replacement.
Also by then, the 787 program will have fully consolidated into Charleston, and the last 747 will have departed the Paine Field flight line, leaving The World’s Largest Building (By Volume) half-empty.
Then, in January 2024, Boeing’s contract with its touch-labor union – IAM District 751 – will expire, after a 10-year extension that was part of the price Machinists paid to ensure the 777X would be assembled in Everett. For the first time since the summer of 2008, the two sides will sit down at a bargaining table with the union having the ability to call for a strike.
What happens between now and January 2024 will pretty much decide the future of Boeing in Washington state. If the players are clear-eyed and rational, we could see a return to the days when high-skilled workers built high-quality planes that created handsome profits for Boeing shareholders and family-wage jobs for Boeing workers.
Bjorn’s Corner: 737 MAX ungrounding, ANAC’s and EASA’s decisions
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 27, 2020, ©. Leeham News: After the lifting on the grounding order by the FAA, ANAC (Brazils regulator) followed in the week, and EASA issued its plans for public comment.
What are the differences in the ungrounding conditions, and what are the reasons for any differences?
Figure 1. Circuit Breaker placement for the 737 NG and MAX. Source: Leeham Co. and Flightdeck737.be
Enhancing the Dreamliner, Part 8: Wrap Up
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By Bjorn Ferhm and Vincent Valery
Introduction
Nov. 26, 2020, © Leeham News: After analyzing the three members of the Dreamliner family on several routes out of San Francisco to Asian destinations, we conclude the series with a wrap- up of what we learned.
Summary
- A guinea pig for new technologies and processes;
- After a long slough against problems, a resounding commercial success;
- Size-wise, ideally-positioned for the post-COVID world;
- Future enhancements.
Boeing 737 MAX changes beyond MCAS
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 24, 2020, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we went through the core MCAS changes the FAA demanded from Boeing to lift the grounding of the 737 MAX 8 and 9. As the investigation into the MAX crashes deepened, changes were added beyond the core MCAS related changes.
A single sensor failure, like the Angle of Attack failures for Lion Air JT610 and Ethiopian Airlines ET302, triggered a multitude of failure warnings. These warnings absorbed the crew’s concentration, invalidating FAA certification assumptions on crew reaction times for critical trim failures. As a result, the FAA required additional crew alert and procedure changes for the MAX.
