Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
The 737 MAX – A Tragedy 60 years in the Making
This is the first in a series. Special to Leeham News.
By Peter W. Lemme
Twitter satcom_guru
Part 1: Min to the Max
- The Customer is Always Right
- Heredity
- Boeing 757 Misses the Mark
- Where were you when the 737 hit the fan
- Idiot Lights
- Finding a Way
- Equivalent Safety – Flying Qualities
Feb. 2, 2021, © Leeham News: The Boeing 707 entered service in 1958. 60 years later, a Boeing 737 MAX, the model’s fourth generation, crashed into the sea with all lives tragically lost. After, the 737 entered service in 1968, every subsequent 737 model was carefully crafted with the minimum changes necessary to deliver performance and reliability improvements. Differences were discouraged in order to reduce pilot training requirements, holding dear to visible family traits pioneered by the 707.
Figure 1. The Boeing 737 MAX became Boeing’s most controversial commercial aircraft. Its development was 60 years in the making. Source: Boeing.
Changes that jeopardized an amended Federal Aviation Administration Type Certificate were culled. A new type certificate is a costly and lengthy process, with considerable risk.
The 757 should have saved Boeing from endless 737 generations, but the will of the customer changed its trajectory from the start, in the end leaving no mark at all.
The 737-100 was a marvel by fitting the engine tight under the wing, and every generation since has marveled at how to fit the latest engine under the wing.
Every swept wing air transport suffers growing pains, working out issues with flying qualities.
The 737 seems to have diverged from the other Boeing airplanes progressively. Should the 737 MAX’s now-infamous Maneuvering Augmentation Characteristics System (MCAS) implementation have been applied to the stabilizer? Did Boeing have a better choice?
Flying qualities approved “to the letter”, quantitatively, are balanced by qualitative measures, with latitude in judging acceptable performance.
Exclusive: Boeing shifts 118 777 orders to “iffy” under accounting rule; 191 firm orders remain
By Scott Hamilton and Vincent Valery
Feb. 1, 2021, © Leeham News: There are now just 191 firm orders for the Boeing 777X.
Boeing last week reclassified 118 777X orders from firm to iffy (LNA’s term) due to the accounting rule called ASC 606. There were 17 iffy 777 orders before last week. The ASC total is now 135. After the adjustments, Boeing confirmed to LNA there are 191 firm orders for the X, down from 309 previously.
ASC 606 essentially requires contracts with customers that may be unable to take delivery due to their financial condition. Alternatively, an order can receive such classification if the seller has strong reasons to believe the transaction won’t materialize, despite the customer’s ability to pay.
Source: Boeing
Airbus, Boeing diverge on technology for next new airplane
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Feb. 1, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus and Boeing are diverging on paths for a sustainable, reduced emissions strategy for the next new airplanes.
The stakes are high: billions of dollars in sales, dramatic shifts protecting the environment and which company will be dominate for decades to come.
Source: Boeing
Airbus committed to bringing to market a zero-emissions, hydrogen-powered aircraft by the middle of the next decade. A dramatic shift in supporting infrastructure is needed to support innovating new technology.
Boeing is taking a more conservative approach, but one that won’t require costly changes to the infrastructure or major changes to airplane design. Instead, Boeing is betting on delivering airliners by 2030 that can use 100% sustainable fuels.
Summary
- Boeing believes hydrogen technology is farther away than Airbus thinks.
- Airbus wants a hydrogen-fueled airplane in service by 2035.
- Boeing committed to a 100% sustainably-fueled airplane by 2030.
- Who’s right is a multi-billion dollar bet.
Pontifications: Unraveling the numbers
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 1, 2021, © Leeham News: Understanding the real market demand for an airplane sector is a complicated thing.
What Airbus and Boeing say the market is for an airplane sometimes is a matter of what they don’t say.
On the Jan. 27 earnings call, Boeing set the program accounting for the 777X at 350 airplanes. This number declined from 400. Simultaneously, Boeing took a whopping $6.5bn forward loss on the program. (Not all is attributed to the accounting block.)
Later in the same call, CEO David Calhoun said, “Across the total widebody market of more than 8,000 projected deliveries over the next two decades, we see replacement demand for over 1,500 large widebody airplanes which are well suited for the 777X.”
Some interpreted this to mean that Boeing expects to sell 1,500 777Xs.
Well, not really.
So, let’s unravel these numbers and what “market demand” or “replacement demand” means. Everything discussed below applies equally to Airbus or Boeing.
HOTR: Boeing continues to burn off deferred charges
By the Leeham News Team
Jan. 29, 2021, © Leeham News: With all the headlines about Boeing’s record-breaking 2020 loss and the $6.5bn forward loss for the 777X program, there was one item overlooked.
Boeing continues to reduce the deferred production costs for the 787. This is despite reducing production last year and suspending deliveries from October.
Deferred costs continued to come down quarter-over-quarter. Peaking at more than $32bn years ago, the total now is $16.6bn.
Podcast: 10 Minutes About Boeing’s 2020 Financial Results
Jan. 28, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing on Jan. 27 reported its 2020 financial results. They were ugly, to nobody’s surprise. Beset by the 737 MAX
grounding all year, delays in the 777X program, a suspension of deliveries from October of the 787, continued issues with the KC-46A tanker and problems with the space program, “ugly” financial results were expected.
LNA talks about the 777X, 737 MAX and 787 programs in today’s episode of 10 Minutes About.
The A350, Part 3: The A350-800 versus A330-900
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
January 28, 2020, © Leeham News: Last week, we analyzed the smallest member of the Airbus A350 family, the A350-800. After Airbus changed the variant to a non-optimal “cut and shut” variant, it was no longer competitive.
Airbus froze the development of the A350-800 and then let it slip out of the program (it’s never officially canceled). The A330neo became the replacement for the A350-800. Was this the right decision? Is the A330neo the better airplane?
Summary
- We saw the A350-800 in its final form had a problem competing with Boeing’s 787. This created a problem for the Airbus widebody program below 300 seats.
- After a thorough investigation, Airbus found a way to update the A330 to take the place of the A350-800. We use our airliner performance model to find out how well the replacement performs.
“I’m sure glad 2020 is in the rear view mirror.”–David Calhoun, Boeing CEO
By Scott Hamilton
David Calhoun, Boeing CEO. Source: CNBC.
Jan. 27, 2021, © Leeham News: “I’m sure glad 2020 is in the rear view mirror.”
This was Boeing CEO David Calhoun’s opening statement in his appearance today on CNBC’s Squawk Box.
Calhoun appeared on the financial news network following the release of its 2020 full year financial results.
“The one big charge was for the 777X program,” Calhoun said. Boeing took a forward pre-tax charge of $6.5bn for the program. Carter Copeland of Melius Research noted in a video this morning that this probably was related to an adjustment in the accounting block. Calhoun said on CNBC that Boeing adjusted the accounting block, which has not been publicly announced, as part of the charge.
“Based on everything we learned in the 737 MAX recertification effort, we put more time into the 777X effort. It’s going to be a little more costly and take more time to certify,” he said.
Calhoun expects the 777X will be a big money maker in the future.
Update 1: Big loss for 2020 for Boeing; $6.5bn charge for 777X-delivery now late 2023; 737 MAX cleared by EASA
Updated
- Europe’s aviation regulator EASA clears Boeing 737 MAX for return to service with minor, additional requirements. Information is here.
- $6.5bn charge for 777X program. First delivery now late 2023, nearly 4 years late.
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 27, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing today announced a $11.941bn net loss for the full year 2020, as expected.
Boeing reported an operating loss of $12.767bn. The company’s cash flow was a negative $18.41bn last year. It ended the year with $25.6bn in cash and securities.
The press release is here. The webcast is at 10:30 Eastern time and may be accessed here. Calhoun message to employees is here. The earnings presentation is here.
Boeing took a $6.5bn forward loss on the 777X program. First delivery is now late 2023, nearly four years later than initially planned. Source: Boeing
Podcast: 10 Minutes About the A321XLR and Why Boeing Can’t Compete
Jan. 26, 2021: © Leeham News: Today’s episode is 10 Minutes About the A321XLR and Why Boeing Can’t Compete. LNA’s Judson Rollins worked for Boeing when the MAX was created. He brings an airline background as well, having worked for Air New Zealand and Continental.