By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 6, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing officials must be downing antacids by the bushel about now.
President Donald Trump has the Mexican president pissed off. Trump’s spokesman says the immigration ban (or pause, or suspense, depending on the day it’s described) may be expanded to other “terrorist” nations.
Trump threatens a 45% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on Mexican imports.
Why do Boeing officials probably have upset stomachs and flaming heartburn?
Because Boeing has more than 1,200 orders from countries that are in Trump’s crosshairs.
Nearly 770 of them are 737s. More than 300 are 777s. Nearly 170 of them are 787s.
And these are just the identified customers. There’s no telling how many of the 1,101 737s, 16 777s and 76 787s (at Dec. 31) were ordered by Trump’s target and potential target countries.
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Assessing the MC-21 future
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Introduction
Feb. 9, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Russia’s Irkut designed a mainline jet to compete with the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families that, from a passenger experience
Irkut MC-21 at roll-out. Photo via Google images.
viewpoint, is the best in class.
The MC-21 has a wider fuselage than the A320 (which is wider than the 737). Seats and the aisle are the widest in the class. The overhead bin space is plentiful.
But the airplane is hampered by its environment: Russia itself.
Summary
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Posted on February 13, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, China, Comac, Irkut, Leeham News and Comment, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, United Aircraft
737, A320, Airbus, ARJ-21, Boeing, C919, C929, Irkut, MC-21
Pontifications: Boeing’s risk if Trump goes wild
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 6, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing officials must be downing antacids by the bushel about now.
President Donald Trump has the Mexican president pissed off. Trump’s spokesman says the immigration ban (or pause, or suspense, depending on the day it’s described) may be expanded to other “terrorist” nations.
Trump threatens a 45% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on Mexican imports.
Why do Boeing officials probably have upset stomachs and flaming heartburn?
Because Boeing has more than 1,200 orders from countries that are in Trump’s crosshairs.
Nearly 770 of them are 737s. More than 300 are 777s. Nearly 170 of them are 787s.
And these are just the identified customers. There’s no telling how many of the 1,101 737s, 16 777s and 76 787s (at Dec. 31) were ordered by Trump’s target and potential target countries.
Read more
43 Comments
Posted on February 6, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Boeing, China
737, 777, 787, Asia, Boeing, China, Middle East, President Donald Trump
Boeing to decide this year 787 production rate of 14/mo
Dennis Muilenburg, Boeing CEO
Jan. 25, 2017: Boeing today reported slightly lower revenues for 2016 vs. 2015.
Revenues were down 2% to $94.6bn vs $96.1bn.
Net profit was down 5% year-over-year, reflecting the lower revenues and after charges on the KC-46A tanker and 747-8 programs. Operating profit was $5.8bn vs $7.4bn.
Net profit under GAAP accounting was $4.4bn vs $5.2bn.
Boeing took a pre-tax $312m charge on the KC-46A in the fourth quarter. Charges are now approaching $2bn.
The full press release is here.
Note that officials will make a decision this year whether to increase 787 production to 14/mo by the end of the decade (see Highlights).
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51 Comments
Posted on January 25, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Boeing, China
777, 787, Boeing, Boeing 2016 earnings call, China, Dennis Muilenbug, Greg Smith
Airbus, Boeing deferrals may indicate slowing global economy
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Introduction
Boeing 737 flightline at Boeing Field: 737s awaiting delivery. Seattle Times photo via Google images.
Nov. 17, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The deferral by United Airlines of 65 Boeing 737-700s announced Tuesday caused some observers to conclude this has a negative impact on the manufacturer, but this may well overlook a larger issue.
UAL is the latest “quality” airline to announce deferrals to reschedule capital expenditures or because of not needing the aircraft now.
Softening yields, particularly among US airlines, indicate over-capacity despite load factors of 85% or more, say industry observers.
While the backlogs of Boeing and Airbus remain solid today, do the actions of several major airlines indicate the leading edge of a global economy that’s beginning to soften?
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Posted on November 17, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, China, Premium, United Airlines
737 MAX, 737-700, A320, AirAsia, AirAsiaX, Airbus, American Airlines, Boeing, British Airways, Cowen & Co, easyJet, Helene Becker, Lufthansa Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Turkish Airlines, United Airlines
US, EU ignore Chinese, Russian subsidies
Nov. 15, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Government subsidies to commercial aircraft companies appear to be increasing despite the 12-year disputes before the World Trade Organization between Europe and the US over Airbus and Boeing aid.
Yet the US and Europeans appear to be doing little to try and curb the subsidies to new competitors.
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15 Comments
Posted on November 15, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, China, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, Irkut, Lessors, Sukhoi, United Aircraft
737, 787-9, A319, A320, A330neo, A350, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, C919, C929, China, Comac, CS300, CS500, CSeries, Embraer, MC-21, Russia, United Aircraft Corp.
Bjorn’s Corner: The Engine challenge
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 21, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In our Corners on East bloc aeronautical industries, we could see that the hardest part to master in a new civilian airliner is the engine.
Both new airliners from Russia and China (Irkut MC-21 and COMAC C919) start their lives with Western engines.
Why is this so? What are the challenges that make engines harder to create than aircraft?
LEAP-1C which will be standard engine on COMAC C919. Source: COMAC.
We will spend several Corners on the main reasons that airliner engines are harder to do than aircraft. Read more
18 Comments
Posted on October 21, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm
Bjorn's Corner, CFM, China, Comac, United Aircraft, United Engine Corp.
C919, CFM LEAP-1C, Comac, MC-21, UAC, UEC
From zero to 10,000 in 50 years; can COMAC duplicate this achievement?
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 19, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus delivered its 10,000 aircraft last week (Figure 1), an A350-900 delivered to Singapore Airlines.
Delivering the 10,000 aircraft after 50 years of start of project is impressive, especially as the competition, Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA), the late McDonnell Douglas Corp and Lockheed Co, fought Airbus every step of the way.
Figure 1. Airbus 10,000th aircraft for Singapore Airlines. Source: Airbus.
We have a new player starting its 50 years, Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, COMAC. It’s on its eighth year and the competitions’ sentiments are: “It will take long before they can compete, decades!”
Let’s compare with the rise of Airbus and see what can be learned. Will COMAC deliver its 10,000th aircraft in 50 years? Or in a shorter time? Read more
55 Comments
Posted on October 19, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Boeing, China, Comac, McDonnell Douglas, United Aircraft
Airbus, Boeing, Comac, McDonnell Douglas, United Aircraft Corp.
Bjorn’s Corner; The Engine Research Institutes
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 14, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In our Corners on East bloc aeronautical industries, we will now look at the role of the Research Institutes in Russian and Chinese civil aircraft engine development.
The Russian engine industry is organized similarly to the aircraft industry. It has a powerful research organization which has a much larger role than research organizations in the West.
A large part of fundamental design work and testing is done at the research institute and not at the design bureau level, Figure 1.
Figure 1. PD-14 engine altitude testing at the Central Institute of Aviation Motor Development (CIAM) in Moscow. Source: CIAM.
The Chinese organization of the engine industry is similar, the difference being that the research organizations are organized within the giant AVIC (Aviation Industry Corporation of China) grouping, rather than reporting to the state via a research organization path. Read more
5 Comments
Posted on October 14, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm
Bjorn's Corner, China, Comac, United Engine Corp.
AVIC, China, CIAM, Comac, Russia, TsAGI, UAC, UEC
Bjorn’s Corner: The Chinese aircraft engine industry
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 07, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In our Corners on East bloc aeronautical industries, we will now look at the Chinese civil aircraft engine industry.
The Chinese engine industry is closely modeled after the Chinese aircraft industry that we looked at last week. It is organized as divisions and later subsidiaries to the major aircraft companies. Contrary to the Chinese aircraft industry, it has had major problems in gaining the necessary know-how to start developing and producing its own designs.
The industry has built Soviet designs on license since the 1950s and only recently managed to present functional own designs, after many failures.
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10 Comments
Posted on October 7, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm
Bjorn's Corner, CFM, China, Comac, Rolls-Royce, Sukhoi
ARJ21, C919, China, Klimov, Saturn, WS-10, WS-20
Looking 15 years ahead for Airbus, Boeing
Oct. 5, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The next 15 years won’t bring any relief to crowded airports and airplanes but nevertheless there are warning signs for the likes of Airbus, Boeing and the supply chain.
Michel Merluzeau
Looking ahead to 2030 will see aircraft production peaking early in the next decade but begin to fall off or the Big Two Original Equipment Manufacturers as new entrants begin to be felt, predicts Michel Merluzeau, an independent consultant.
Merluzeau presented his forecast yesterday to the British American Business Council Pacific Northwest chapter’s annual one-day conference in Seattle.
“I’m pretty comfortable about the next five years. I’m comfortable in the next five years. The five years after that,” Merluzeau said his confidence level declines because there are so many variables, ranging from issues within the industry to large ones outside it.
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78 Comments
Posted on October 5, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, China, Comac
737, 777, 787, A320, A330, A350, A360, Airbus, Boeing, British American Business Council, Comac, Michel Merluzeau, MOM airplane
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