Airbus, Boeing YTD orders assessed (Update)

Airbus Boeing Jan-Jun bar chart

Figure 1. Click on image to enlarge.

Update, July 8: In our original post, we omitted 44 Boeing 737NGs from the YTD firm orders. The charts and text have been updated to reflect this information.

July 7, 2015, © Leeham Co. Airbus pulled ahead of Boeing in firm orders through June, and both companies have a number of commitments that were announced at the Paris Air Show that aren’t included in the year-to-date tally.

Airbus leads with single-aisle orders and Boeing leads with widebody orders, but at the half-way point of the year, the contest is far from over. The leads could shift or increase, depending on how the balance of the year goes.

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Bjorn’s Corner: Paris Air Show review

 

By Bjorn Fehrm

By Bjorn Fehrm

June 18, 2015, c Leeham Co: With the industrial part of Paris Air Show over (the public portion continues through the weekend), one can start to summarize impressions. I have over the years participated in around 10 Paris Air Shows or Farnborough International Air Shows. This was one of the first where one could see that people were stopping and looking up to observe the aircraft which were quiet.

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ATR selling their 1,500 ATR turboprop to Japan Airlines.

By Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction

June 15. 2015, C. Leeham Co: ATR said its turboprop product has broken a barrier that was thought impossible for regional turboprops at its Paris Air Show press briefing today. It was a company telling about being in a strong market and enjoying a market leading position. ATR sold its 1500th aircraft to Japan Airlines Commuter (JAC),  the regional daughter of Japan Airlines. JAC signed for eight ATR 42 to replace the Saab 340 fleet. JAC also holds options for a further 15 aircraft. The order was the first for ATR aircraft to Japan.

ATR, which is owned 50:50 by Airbus and Finmeccanica of Italy with headquarters in Toulouse, is dominating the under 90 seat worldwide turboprop market. ATR said that it will unveil business for 46 aircraft during the air show with 35 options as it continues to dominate the world market for turboprops which seats up to 90 passengers. ATR claims it has controlled 77% of the market since 2010 to date and that its customer base during that time was 51 customers versus nearest competitor’s 24.

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Bjorn’s Corner: China’s civil aviation, from nothing to world’s largest in 2030

Introduction

By Bjorn Fehrm

By Bjorn Fehrm

14 May 2015, C. Leeham Co: In my ISTAT Asia reports, I wrote about how China will overtake USA as largest civil aviation market in  2030. Airbus China Group chairman, Laurence Barron, and I had a chat after his ISTAT presentation where he described China’s evolution as a civil aviation market and how Airbus gradually worked itself from a late and hesitant start to today’s split of the market with Boeing.

Barron provided his slides, some of which  we will use  to review how China grew from virtually no civil aviation after the Chinese revolution in 1949 to the world’s largest market by 2030. We will also look at what aircraft have made up this growth and finally describe how Airbus progressed from a latecomer in 1985 to sharing the market with Boeing today.

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ISTAT Asia day two: home for the elderly

Introduction

May 12, 2015, c. Leeham Co: As you would have guessed we are talking Asian civil airliners, where planning in the region for the fast growing older generations is inadequate. This was the subject of several sessions during day two of the ISTAT Asia (International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading) conference in Singapore.

The problem is new, as up to now a newly established airline fleet in Asia has not had any numbers of older aircraft. But the expansion over the last 20 years is now producing the first transition waves of aircraft and the planning around the problems this generates is inadequate.

The result will be surprising write-downs of airline assets as aircraft being replaced cannot be transitioned out at booked residual values. The scale of the problem was highlighted by a survey of the 500 gathered ISTAT industry experts. The question posed to them was “There are 4700 aircraft coming up for replacement until 2033, has Asian airlines planned adequately for this?”:

  • 49% of the delegates responded a few airlines have.
  • 45% answered there are only some that do it.
  • 5% of the delegates answered most airlines does it.
  • 2% thought all Asian airlines have done it.

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ISTAT Asia: Asian airline market update

Introduction

May 11, 2015, c. Leeham Co: We are participating this week in the ISTAT Asia conference in Singapore where IATA and different panels gave an interesting update on the Asian airline market. This is the fifth year that an ISTAT (International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading) conference is held in Asia and participation has virtually doubled from last year to 500 delegates.

IATA’s Conrad Clifford opened the event with the following overview about the Asian market for airline passenger travel:

  • The IATA 20 year forecast growth for the region is 4.9 % annual growth, making it the largest world-wide passenger market by 2030.
  • The domestic markets of China and India grew with 11% and 20% respectively in 1Q2015. The US market in comparison grew 3%.
  • The growth in the region makes China the world-wide largest domestic passenger market by 2030, surpassing the US with India in third place.
  • The highest growth markets are China, India and Indonesia. Countries like Thailand and Malaysia are struggling with low demand at present.

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Bombardier CS300 analysis vs A319neo, 737-7

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

March 29, 2015, c. Leeham Co: Bombardier’s big bet in the aeronautics sector, CSeries, is well into flight testing, now more than half way toward the 2,400 hours required by Transport Canada before certification can be granted. The first aircraft to be certified will be the smaller 110 seat CS100 but the market is most interested in the larger 135 seat CS300, which has 63% of present orders and commitments, Figure 1.

CS300

Figure 1. Cseries largest model, CS300. Source: Bombardier.

Bombardier’s new CEO, Alan Bellemare, told reporters last week that the CS100 would be certified during 2015 with entry into service slipping into 2016. The CS300, which is a direct challenger to Airbus’ A319neo and Boeing’s 737-7, should follow six months after CS100. With the CS300 in flight testing and going into service next summer, we decided to have a deeper look at CS300 and its competitors.

Summary

  • A319 and 737-7 are shrinks of the market’s preferred models, A320 and 737-8, and as such not the most efficient models.
  • The CS300 is the series center-point and it shows. The modern design beats the Airbus and Boeing designs on most counts.
  • Part of the modern concepts in CSeries is the well-conceived Pratt & Whitney PW1000G geared turbofan.
  • PW’s 73 in fan version of the PW1000G for CSeries is slightly less efficient that the 81 in version for A319neo but CS300 lower weight makes sure this is more than compensated for.

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Airbus Group 2014, analysis after press conference

By Bjorn Fehrm

Munich 27 Feb. 2015: The team from Airbus Group that met the press in Munich today consisted of Tom Enders, Airbus Group Chief Executive Officer, Harald Wilhelm, Airbus Group Chief Financial Officer and Marwan Lahoud, Head of Airbus Group strategy and M&A.

It was a team in good spirits that met around 150 on-site journalists from mainly Europe, with both Tom Enders and Harald Wilhelm clearly at ease with the groups improving results and giving Marwan Lahoud compliments for his restructuring work in the groups remaining problem areas.

Before we go into the areas with work in progress, lets focus on why these gentlemen felt at ease with presenting the state of Airbus Group after its first year operating under the new name. Read more

Bombardier’s crisis of confidence perhaps the biggest challenge for CSeries

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Introduction

Feb. 18, 2015, c. Leeham Co.: Alain Bellemare, Bombardier’s new president and chief executive officer, has his work cut out for him.

CSeries EIS v A320neo

Figure 1. The CSeries was supposed to enter service in late 2013, two full years ahead of the Airbus A320neo. This market advantage has been lost with repeated delays. BBD is sticking to its public statement that EIS is now the second half of this year (most put EIS in the fourth quarter), but there is growing belief EIS will slip to the first or even the second quarter of next year–after the A320neo EIS. Source: Bombardier, Airbus, Leeham Co. Click on image to enlarge into a crisp view.

We outlined the corporate and market perception challenges ahead of him in our Feb. 13 post. Investor and media reception to the CEO leadership change was mixed. Although Bellemare’s appointment was seen as a positive, stock traded down and Bombardier took a pounding in the press (see some reaction at the bottom of this post).

He also has challenges with a changing market place, driven by two years worth of delays in the CSeries program and exacerbated by a changing global political environment.

Summary

  • Bombardier faces a crisis in confidence from customers that has to be fixed.
  • The CSeries has lost its entry-into-service advantage over the Airbus A320neo and has reduced its advantage over the A319neo, the Boeing 737-8/7 and Embraer E-190/195 E2 EIS due to delays.
  • A changing global political environment poses additional risks to the CSeries skyline.

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Turboprops’ future is OK but not great as ATR corners market

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Introduction

Jan. 5, 2015: Conventional wisdom suggests that turboprops are making a bit of a comeback because these remain far more efficient for routes up to 400 miles than jets, particularly at high fuel prices.

Even though oil prices have plunged to a seven year low, few expect that long-term prices will remain at today’s levels. While fuel between $50-$60bbl breathes new life into aging regional jets, there remains efforts in several corners to develop a new generation of turboprops.

  • Summary
    ATR wants to launch a new, 90-100 seat turboprop.
  • Bombardier launched a high-density, 86, seat version of its Q400 but appears cool to a new design.
  • China offers its indigenously built turboprop.
  • India and Indonesia are exploring a new design.
  • Pratt & Whitney, GE, others are developing the next generation engine.

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