Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by steel or electrical wire, Part 10
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 27, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”) we started a discussion about the need for stability augmentation systems last week and how these are implemented.
We handled yaw augmentation and began the discussion on pitch augmentation. Now we dig deeper into the trickier form of pitch augmentation, the one needed because of regions of lower stability in pitch at higher Angles of Attack (AoA).
Figure 1. The pitch moment curve of a modern airliner. Source: Leeham Co.
Embraer’s E195-E2 or Airbus A220-300 under 150 seats? Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
September 26, 2019, ©. Leeham News: We started an analysis of what aircraft to choose for the segment 120 to 150 seats last week, where we compared Embraer’s E195-E2 with Airbus A220-300.
We began by comparing the fundamentals: their size, their engines, physical data and how these would compare in a normalized way. Now we continue by looking at the drag characteristics of the airframes and what this means for their fuel consumption.
Summary:
- Any difference in fuel consumption between the E195-E2 and the A220-300 will be done to the optimization of the airframes, as they share the same engine.
- The drag picture for the E195-E2 versus the A220-300 is a mixed bag. One is better on normalized friction drag (drag due to size) the other on induced drag (drag due to weight).
The Struggling European Regional Airlines
- This is the third in a series of articles on the struggling low cost and leisure carriers in Europe.
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Sep. 23, 2019, © Leeham News: Numerous European regional airlines are struggling financially.
FlyBe was sold earlier this year for a symbolic amount to Connect Airways. The new airlines’ shareholders are Stobart Air, Virgin Atlantic and Cyrus Capital Partners.
UK regional carrier flybmi ceased operations earlier this year. Air France announced a 15% cut in domestic capacity at regional subsidiary Hop! after years of steep losses.
In spite of their struggles, European regional airlines represent a significant market for aircraft OEMs. The Airbus A220, Embraer E2 and turboprop programs count on new European airline orders to bolster their order book.
Summary
- A fragmented industry;
- Another prevailing business models than in the USA;
- Influence of geography and public transportation;
- Dearth of latest generation aircraft orders;
- External factors threatening the industry.
Embraer’s E195-E2 or Airbus’ A220-300 for the 120 to 150 seat segment?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
September 19, 2019, ©. Leeham News: What aircraft to choose for the segment 120 to 150 seats, Embraer’s E195-E2 or Airbus A220-300? After discussions with Airbus’ Rob Dewar at the Paris Airshow, Head of A220 Engineering and Product Support, and a visit to Embraer last week for the E195-E2’s first customer delivery, we have collected some unique insights.
We also had the opportunity to talk to David Neeleman of Azul, Moxy and TAP Portugal when at Embraer, the only owner/operator which has bought both aircraft; E195-E2 for Azul and A220-300 for his Moxy project.
Summary:
- We start with a detailed comparison of the aircraft in this first article.
- While serving the same passenger capacity segment, they are surprisingly different in their design approach and, therefore, in their characteristics.
Milestone for Embraer with the E195-E2
Sept. 18, 2019, © Leeham News: Embraer passed a milestone last week with the delivery of the first E195-E2, to Azul Airlines of Brazil.
The airplane is the largest Embraer has designed. It’s bigger than the KC-390 tanker-transport. It’s longer than the Boeing 737-8 but shorter than the Boeing 737-9. It carries 146 passengers in high density configuration.
The marketing head for Embraer’s US offices says the E195-E2 will be the sales leader while the CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation, John Slattery, said it will account for a third of program sales.
Either way, LNA’s Bjorn Fehrm was on site for the delivery and tomorrow will begin a series of articles analyzing the design of the E195-E2 and its economics compared with its nearest competitor, the Airbus A220.
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by steel or electrical wire, Part 8
September 13, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”) we discussed the flight control laws of Boeing’s 777/787 and Airbus’ A220 last week.
Now we continue with Embraer’s fourth-generation FBW, the one for the E-Jet E2 series.
Figure 1. The Embraer E2 FBW system is a closed-loop feedback design. Source: Embraer.
Embraer delivers first E195-E2, expects E175-E2 entry into service 2021.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Sept. 12, 2019, ©. Leeham News, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil: Embraer celebrated the first delivery of its to-date largest aircraft, the 132 seat E195-E2, to Brazil’s Azul Airlines at a press event at its Sao Jose dos Campos headquarters today.
At the conference, the Commercial Aircraft CEO, John Slattery. also stated the smallest member of the E2 family, the E175-E2, will fly before the end of the year and he expects it fly revenue flights for its first customer before end 2021.
A321 accounts for 50%+ of future deliveries; few production gaps
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Introduction
Sept. 12, 2019, © Leeham News: More than half the Airbus A320 family scheduled for delivery over the next four years will be the A321neo, according to an analysis performed by LNA.
Airbus is sold out through 2024 the current production rate of 60/mo or 720 per year.
The production rate increases to 63/mo next year, although LNA doesn’t have a precise time when this occurs.
A variable is also whether a full 12 months of production is calculated, or only 11 ½ months to allow for the summer vacation shutdown.
Either way, the production gaps appear manageable through 2024.
Summary
- Previous Airbus forecasts A321 would account for half of production were viewed skeptically.
- A321 long-term future depends on Boeing’s decision over the New Midmarket Airplane.
E195-E2 will lead E-Jet sales, predicts N. American sales exec
Sept. 6, 2019, © Leeham Co., Nashville– Embraer is seeing interest from North American airlines in the E195-E2 despite a requirement that this would have to be operated by US mainline pilots or carriers without restrictions under some labor contract Scope Clauses, a top marketing official said yesterday.
Charlie Hills, VP of Sales and Marketing and based at the company’s US headquarters in Ft. Lauderdale, declined to name names of these airlines expressing interest in the E195-E2.
The remarks were made at the annual Regional Airlines Assoc. conference in Nashville.
But it is known that low-cost carriers Spirit Air, Frontier Airlines and even Southwest Airlines have looked at the airplane. None of these has a Scope Clause in labor contracts.
Legacy carrier United Airlines also has reviewed the airplane, but its level of interest is hard to gauge. It’s restricted by Scope by size, weight, seat count and the number of airplanes it can fly through its regional partners, so the E2 would have to fly mainline. Pilot wages would be a make-or-break issue.
The first E195-E2 will be delivered Sept. 12 to Brazil’s Azul Airlines.
Mitsubishi lands MOU for up to 100 SpaceJets from USA’s Mesa Air
Sept. 5, 2019, © Leeham News: Nashville—Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp (MITAC) won a large commitment for up to 100 of its new M100 SpaceJet from US regional carrier Mesa Airlines.
The Memorandum of Understanding was announced today at the Regional Airline Assn. annual US conference. The MOU is for 50 firm orders and purchase rights for 50 more. Mesa is a new MITAC customer. Deliveries begin in 2024. Entry into service is planned for 2023.
The M100 is compliant with the US pilot contract Scope Clauses, which (among other things) limit the weight of the airplane and seating configuration.
A Letter of Intent for 15 M100s was announced at the Paris Air Show. This customer has yet to be identified.