Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
How Boeing is working to convert Qatar’s MAX LOI into a firm order
Boeing 737-8. Boeing photo.
Oct. 18, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It’s only a Letter of Intent, the agreement between Boeing and Qatar Airways for up to 60 737-8s.
Qatar announced the LOI two weeks ago because its CEO, the notoriously fickle Akbar Al-Baker, is royally pissed at Airbus over delays for the A320neo. Qatar was the launch customer for the airplane, ordering 50. Citing issues and delays with the Pratt & Whitney GTF engines, and other unspecified problems, Al-Baker refused to take delivery of four of the first aircraft.
He repeatedly threatened to drop the A320 order altogether, but then at the press conference announcing the LOI (along with other Boeing orders), he said he doesn’t walk from contracts.
Forget for the moment the contradiction.
Here’s how Boeing is working to convert the LOI into a firm order.
Engine industry clamoring for road back
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
October 13, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: The airline engine industry is like a ticking bomb. Over the years, a business practice of selling the engines under manufacturing cost and planning to recover costs and make a profit on the aftermarket developed. This goes back decades.
The practice was fostered by fierce competition over the engine contracts for aircraft which offered alternative engines. The losses of the engine sales could be made up later by selling spare parts and services at high margins.
Figure 1. Trent 7000 from Rolls-Royce. Source: Rolls-Royce.
These “jam tomorrow” practices have several implications. The engine industry is now confronted with these and wonder how it could put itself in such a bind. How to handle these and what is the way back?
Summary:
- High competition in engine sales forced ultra high discounts for the up-front engine sale.
- Aftermarket schemes was created that should recover profits over spare parts and services.
- But these maintenance practices create all sorts of problems in the used engine market.
- The engine industry now wants to return to more normal business practices. But how do they find the way back?
Airline assets and lessor assets: Bombardier and Embraer
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Part 2. Part 1 may be found here.
Introduction
Bombardier invented the regional jet. Despite some sales these days, the CRJ was eclipsed by the Embraer J-Jet. Bombardier photo.
Oct. 10, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Regional aircraft are much riskier assets for lessors than mainline aircraft.
Until recently, Bombardier and Embraer were the only two regional jet Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs).
Today, the Sukhoi SSJ100 and the Mitsubishi MRJ90 join BBD and EMB in this arena.
Summary
- Bombardier’s regional jets CRJ series enjoyed a good life with airlines and lessors, but fell into disfavor as fuel prices spiked.
- BBD’s CSeries was ordered by four lessors, but two of them have question marks.
- Embraer’s E-Jet found good homes with lessors, but some worry about supply-and-demand in the secondary market.
No sanctions will be levied on Airbus and Boeing in WTO dispute
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Now open to all readers.
Introduction
Sept. 26, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It’s hazardous to use the word “never,” but the US and European Union will never impose trade sanctions or tariffs on Airbus or Boeing airplanes.
No sane president would do so. (Cue Donald Trump.) It would start a devastating trade war and the collateral damage on innocents in the Airbus-Boeing illegal subsidies disputes would be severely harmed.
Summary
- US tariffs on Airbus aircraft and EU tariffs on Boeing aircraft would hurt engine makers, suppliers—innocents in the illegal subsidy disputes.
- Some key customers order from Airbus and Boeing. Tariffs on one or the other company risk alienating these customers.
- Sanctions/tariffs permitted on other companies, industries.
- Canada, Brazil never imposed sanctions in Bombard-Embraer violations.
Airbus, Boeing cost-cutting
Sept. 20, 2016: Airbus is planning cost-cutting measures to offset program write-offs and delivery delays, according to The Financial Times.
One of these delays involves the well-publicized problems with the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan engine on the A320neo.
The CEO of United Technologies, parent of PW, last week said engine deliveries could fall 50-100 engines short of the 200 originally projected for the year, with a likely shortfall of about 50.
The A320neo “gliders” (as an Airbus executive put it) are well known. Bombardier also said it will deliver about half the number of CSeries this year because of GTF issues.
Sam Pearlstein, the aerospace analyst at Wells Fargo, had this synopsis:
Weekly analysts report: Reaction to CSeries delivery delays
Bombardier CSeries: new delivery delays, but this time not BBD’s fault. Photo via Google images.
Sept. 7, 2016: The news that Bombardier is halving its projected deliveries of the CSeries this year because of engine delays from Pratt & Whitney drew commentary from a couple of the analysts whose reports LNC receives.
- Cutting the anticipated deliveries for the Bombardier CSeries was not a surprise to Credit Suisse, but the reason (PW GTF delays) was.
- Goldman Sachs pretty much yawned at BBD’s news.
- Bernstein Research takes another of its periodic looks at the Airbus v Boeing competition, this time for narrow-bodies.
- The sale of CIT Aerospace, one of the world’s largest lessors (and with sizeable orders from Airbus and Boeing), will likely go to a Chinese firm, predicts FBR & Co.. FBR focuses on the lessor industry.
44% supplier shortfall for GTF now showing impact
Sept. 6, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It was a stunning admission, one that produced the biggest headlines at the United Technologies media days in June: 44% of the suppliers on Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbo Fan engine weren’t performing to the UTC/PW standards.
The impact of this was seen today when Bombardier announced it will deliver only half the anticipated 15 C Series this year because of engine delivery issues by PW for the GTF powering the new airplane.
Bombardier and PW pointed the finger at its supply chain for the delays in delivering engines.
Bjorn’s Corner: A good in-service start for CSeries
August 26, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Bombardier’s CSeries appears to have a good start in airline operations following its show-and-tell at the Farnborough Air Show in July. The first CS100 entered service with launch customer SWISS International Airlines shortly after the international event wrapped up. The aircraft has now been in service a month.
At the show I was on my way to a meeting with Rob Dewar, CSeries VP and Program manager to discuss the expected in service reliability of the CSeries, starting service with SWISS at the end of the week. I was a bit early and decided to use the time to pass the CS100 exhibition aircraft, the first series CS100 for SWISS. It was flown there by a SWISS crew earlier in the week.
Figure 1. C Series first serial aircraft flying in regular service for SWISS. Source: Bombardier.
The SWISS pilots were preparing for the trip home to Zurich as I entered the cockpit. We had time to talk about the aircraft and their expectations for the first revenue flight in two days, on Friday, the 15thof July. Read more